“The arms race between India and Pakistan poses perhaps the most probable prospect for future use of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons,” James Woolsey, the CIA director, told Congress in 1993. That assessment is relevant now, after days of escalating conflict that included missile and drone strikes on military bases. It is a uniquely modern arms race: high on nationalist fervour and habitual mistrust, choreographed so that each clash is always just one provocation away from becoming the last.
On Saturday, Donald Trump announced a “full and immediate” ceasefire between India and Pakistan. The truce, brokered by US officials, came amid speculation by military analysts that Pakistan was edging closer to using nuclear weapons. It was met with cautious optimism – not least as both sides accused each other of violating the agreement within hours, with reports of cross-border shelling in Indian-administered Kashmir. Should the ceasefire pause the missiles, it won’t resolve the deeper dispute at the roof of the world.
