Prediction markets proved themselves this election season. In the weeks leading up to the 2024 presidential election, what appeared to be a small group of traders dumped millions of dollars into Polymarket, betting that Donald Trump would win. It turns out it was just one French whale who had pushed tens of millions of dollars into the market, dramatically increasing Trump’s odds of winning—which he did.
That “prophecy” as many crypto proponents, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk called it, came true late into Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. By about midnight EST, Trump’s odds of winning the presidential election according to the Polymarket contract, were above 90%. It’s unsurprising the market reacted so quickly—especially since there is money at stake, Luca Prosperi, CEO and cofounder of M^0, a protocol that allows global institutions to issue stablecoins, told Fortune.
