Having crossed the halfway point in the Allianz Football League, the picture across the four divisions should become much clearer after this weekend, after which a fortnight’s break kicks in.
We’ve identified the pivotal game in each division ahead of a crucial round of games.
DIVISION ONE
Armagh v Donegal
The two teams currently sit level on three points towards the foot of Division One, with Armagh just outside the relegation zone owing to their superior scoring difference over Donegal.
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A win for Armagh could see them climb as high as third in the table but a defeat would drag them right into the bear pit of a relegation battle and, having established themselves as a top flight team in the last couple of years while seemingly moving to the cusp of finally achieving something tangible in the Championship, dropping to Division Two now could be crippling for their confidence.
The hope in Armagh will be that the dynamic in this rivalry has been tilted by their emphatic win in last year’s qualifiers. Prior to that, Armagh hadn’t beaten Donegal in nine League and Championship games, losing eight of them, dating right back to the infamous qualifier game in Crossmaglen in 2010, dubbed Donegal’s rock bottom moment before Jim McGuinness took over.
It appears as though the teams are on different trajectories right now but Armagh need to prove it with a victory at the Athletic Grounds tomorrow evening while a weakened Donegal will hope to prey on some old insecurities that may still be lingering in the home side’s psyche.
DIVISION TWO
Louth v Kildare
Out of the 16 games this weekend, there are arguably none of greater importance than this one.
The two teams that were promoted from Division Three last year were quickly installed as favourites to make the drop but while Limerick have satisfied that billing, Louth are refusing to go gracefully and with two successive wins having started with a pair of narrow defeats, they have all the momentum as they welcome Kildare to Ardee.
But with Cork and Dublin to come in their closing two games, their best chance of staying in Division Two may be spent if they don’t pick up another victory on Sunday.
Glenn Ryan’s side currently occupy the relegation zone with two points, gleaned in remarkable circumstances against Clare in Ennis as they fashioned an unlikely comeback. But either side of that were heavy home defeats to Cork and Derry.
With Dublin blocking their path to a Leinster final, relegation will almost certainly consign them to the Tailteann Cup. On the face of things, playing amongst the bottom 16 is hardly a dramatic fall from grace for a county that has won just two provincial titles in 67 years, but expectations in Kildare are much loftier than that.
The euphoria that greeted Ryan’s appointment in October 2021 has dimmed and it’s difficult to see how they could resurrect their season should they fall again this weekend, though the win in Ennis at least suggests that there is still a kick in them.
DIVISION THREE
Cavan v Down
Cavan are one of only three sides with a 100% record after four games and the only one in Division Three. Maintain that at home to Down on Sunday and they’ll have all but secured a second promotion on the spin on the back of tumbling down the divisions right from the very top in successive seasons prior to that.
Victory would leave them four points clear of third place with only two games to play and a healthy scoring difference, meaning that the prospects of them finishing outside the top two would be remote.
The last time the counties met was in the first round proper of last year’s Tailteann Cup when Cavan coasted to a nine-point win to complete Down’s winless season.
The appointment of Conor Laverty as Mourne boss was expected to bring about a reversal in their fortunes, particularly after a decent showing in the McKenna Cup, but they haven’t had it all their own way in Division Three and promotion will be out of their hands should they suffer another loss here.
However, as important as promotion may be, it is unlikely to grant any Division Three team a pathway out of this year’s Tailteann Cup given that Westmeath are guaranteed a spot in the top tier regardless of how they fare in League or province, while the last remaining place is set to be taken by whichever one from Sligo, Leitrim, London or New York reaches the Connacht final.
DIVISION FOUR
Wicklow v Leitrim
To be fair, it’s difficult to separate Wicklow-Leitrim and Sligo-Wexford in terms of importance in what is a hectic Division Four, but the first fixture is harder to call and seems likely to have the greater impact on who will eventually win promotion.
Leitrim, Laois and Sligo all sit on six points with Wexford and Wicklow on five each. Carlow are somewhat adrift in sixth place on three points.
Wicklow’s win in Laois has blown Division Four wide open just when it started to appear that the midlanders would head off into the distance at the top of the table.
Realistically, Wicklow, like Wexford, can’t afford to lose here as it would almost certainly leave them three points behind both of the top two with only four more points to play for.
Winning wouldn’t guarantee Leitrim anything either but it would at least burn off a couple of competitors for promotion.
It promises to be an informative weekend in Division Four whatever happens with the field set to either scatter somewhat or tighten further.
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