It’s just about that time of year again, when youth is seen as boundless potential rather than woeful inexperience. This is a point in time where substantial injuries have yet to take place, so just about every fan base can wonder: What if this is the year our guys stay healthy? The start of the season allows for a glass-half-full outlook, where even cynics can picture the bright side as opposed to obsessing over their team’s worst flaws. Yes, mid-to-late October fundamentally serves as the point in the calendar where championship dreams are still intact for a dozen or so clubs, even if there will ultimately be just one NBA champion.
In light of this blissful time of year, we outlined and analyzed four key questions that figure to define the upcoming NBA season.
Which trade(s) ends up paying off more: the Bucks’ trade for Lillard, or Boston’s deals for Jrue and Porziņģis?
At least six teams out East—the Heat, Sixers, Cavs, Knicks, Bucks and Celtics—should feel like they could win a championship if things break their way. They all have a mix of star talent, skill and postseason experience (though Cleveland has less of that than the other clubs). Still, after the offseason wheeling and dealing that took place, most would argue that Boston and Milwaukee are a step ahead of everyone else on paper.
On some level, this season could boil down to which Eastern Conference power wins biggest with their sizable trade gambles. The Bucks got Damian Lillard, but had to part ways with All-NBA defender Jrue Holiday—arguably the league’s best stopper at the point of attack—to get him. And for Boston, the club plugged Holiday into the hole left behind one-time Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, who’d been dealt in the swap for Kristaps Porziņģis. Also of note: The Celtics lost talented big man Robert Williams in the trade for Holiday, leaving them quite thin at center, with just Porziņģis and 37-year-old Al Horford as the two bigs with true postseason experience.
The Bucks, with a new coach in Adrian Griffin, should be on another level offensively now with all the space Lillard creates. But how much of a step back, if at all, do they take defensively? And yes: Boston has perhaps the best rotation of wings in the league, but are the Celtics deep enough at center to finally break through? If they fall short this season, they’ll have some awfully tough financial questions to ask themselves.
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What ultimately happens with James Harden?
If you’re someone who can’t wrap your mind around the Sixers as a true contender, we get it. After all, how many teams who deal with what now looks like a holdout from a future Hall of Famer, then go on to win an NBA title that same season?
To be honest, we’re left wondering what the endgame is here. Harden already missed Media Day and got to training camp late, but then upon showing up, worked out with the team. Then he went back to not being there. Perhaps Harden has reasons aside from his stated displeasure with Sixers president Daryl Morey. But it’s challenging to give him the benefit of the doubt here.
We fully understand he wants a trade to the Clippers. But what about this odd process—or the last couple years of weirdness, frankly—would make Los Angeles up the ante here, at this moment, before the season starts? The answer is nothing. And it suggests that we’ll continue to have a stalemate in Philly for the foreseeable future. If that ends up being the case, the Sixers are in a strange place, even as they boast the reigning MVP, a young guard who looks primed to become an All-Star soon, a championship-level coach and a relatively solid roster on paper.
Mannix: The Clippers Don’t Need to Swing for James Harden, but Maybe They Should
Will the Suns ultimately need a true point guard?
“I mean, saying it respectfully, I don’t know how teams are going to guard us,” superstar Devin Booker said recently.
Whether he’s respectful about the point or not, it still stands: Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal—three of the best individual scorers in the game—are going to be a load to stop on the offensive end this season. Trying to double team or trap any one of the three playmakers could prove fatal for opposing defenses. Still, after moving on from Chris Paul, it is worth wondering: will there be times—particularly in postseason—where the Suns look like they need a true floor general, as opposed to relying on Booker or Durant to spearhead the attack?
This isn’t to suggest that Paul was a sure thing at age 38. Aside from the fact a groin pull left him sidelined to finish yet another postseason, it’s fair to say he’s lost a step. The share of shots he took at the rim—2.5% of his tries last season—was less than half of what it was just two seasons ago (5.8% in 2020–21).
Still, there’s something to be said for his smarts, his low turnover rate and his willingness to be a setup man for long stretches when there are other hungry scorers on the court.
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Who ends up challenging Denver most?
The Nuggets, looking unbeatable at times, largely rolled through each of their playoff opponents to win the 2023 crown, their first title in franchise history.
They undoubtedly lost skill and talent from last season’s group, watching star reserve Bruce Brown take a huge free-agent deal with Indiana and ageless forward Jeff Green leave for a rebuilding Houston club. But there’s plenty of reason to expect Denver to be in the conversation this time around.
Christian Braun, who came up big as a rookie during the NBA Finals, figures to get a solid crack at replacing Brown’s role. And youngster Zeke Nnaji will have opportunities to do the same with Green’s. Another possible revelation: Guard Julian Strawther, out of Gonzaga, has been a flamethrower, averaging nearly 18 points per game in the preseason thus far.
All that said, the clubs vying to unseat the Nuggs aren’t going to be relying on youth to do so. The veteran Lakers had a productive summer—landing Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince and Christian Wood—and now have arguably the league’s deepest rotation, giving them reason to feel they’ve closed the gap. The turnover-prone Warriors dumped Jordan Poole and landed Paul, one of the most sure-handed guards in league history. Memphis will be without Ja Morant for 25 games as he serves his suspension, but on some level that should ensure that he’s healthy for the Grizzlies’ stretch run later in the season. (Adding Marcus Smart, who can both fill in for Morant and pick up the defensive slack left behind by departed wing Dillon Brooks, will also be wildly helpful. So will getting Steven Adams back after he missed the end of last year.) The Suns not only added Beal and a title-winning coach in Frank Vogel, but they also added some wing depth, including Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon and Yuta Watanabe, one of the league’s most accurate corner-three-point gunners.
The question of who can effectively guard Nikola Jokić still remains. But a number of teams, fully believing in themselves with the new season around the corner, are willing to try and provide an answer.
