We’re just far enough into the MLB season for statlines to begin to steady. It’s still early, but it’s just late enough to start trusting what we’ve been seeing. So here are five hitters who have surprised so far—in ways good and bad.
1. Brent Rooker (.313/.431/.657, 10 HR, 207 OPS+)
Bright spots have been (very) few and (extremely) far between this year for the A’s. There’s certainly been none anywhere near as bright as Rooker. After three middling, partial seasons with the Twins, Padres and Royals, he was selected off waivers by Oakland in November. And he’s … suddenly the best hitter in baseball? Rooker leads MLB in slugging, OPS and OPS+. He’s mashing in a way that few other hitters this year have. (His 10 home runs are just one behind the American League lead.) The 28-year-old is displaying incredible plate discipline: His 16% walk percentage is among the top 10 in baseball. Rooker’s rep as a prospect was that he had serious power, and, at every level of the minors, he’d shown what that could look like. But he hadn’t shown that at all in his previous brief stints in the big leagues. Now? Rooker has seemingly put it all together.
2. Jonah Heim (.321/.387/.557, 6 HR, 160 OPS+)
Heim’s calling card with the Rangers has always been his defense. He’s previously shown that, at his best, he can hit well for a catcher. But he’s dropped the qualifier this year and has taken a tremendous leap forward. As good as his actual stats are—he’s in MLB’s top 10 for OPS+—his expected stats are even better. (He’s in the 94th percentile or above for expected average, slugging and weighted on base average.) There’s no smoke and mirrors behind his performance this year. It’s just lots of promising quality contact.
3. Luis Arraez (.408/.463/.500, 1 HR, 166 OPS+)
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The surprise here isn’t that Arraez is a good hitter. (The Marlins’ second baseman demonstrated that plenty well last year, when he won the American League batting title and was named an All-Star.) The surprise is that he’s continued to find a way to get even better—by leaning even further into his strengths. Arraez’s skill set has always been delightfully old-school. He’s a contact hitter without much power—a model straight out of the ’80s, even if it seems questionably useful in today’s environment. But Arraez is more himself than ever, and he’s making it work in a big way. Compare what he’s doing so far to his breakout season from last year. His strikeout rate is even lower (from 7.1% to 6.0%). His isolated power is even less (from .104 to .092). His swing rate is higher (from 42.7% to 45.7%), yet his contact rate is, too (from 94.1% to 95.0%). A 95% contact rate! He simply doesn’t miss.
4. José Abreu (.218/.265/.261, 0 HR, 47 OPS+)
And now on to the disappointing surprises. Abreu has been the biggest hole in an unexpectedly lackluster Astros offense. In the first season of a three-year, $50-million contract with the Astros, the first baseman has completely lost his way at the plate. He’s always been a productive hitter: Even his worst season before this year saw him still markedly above average. He’s never posted an OPS+ below 115. Yet seemingly everything has fallen apart for him this year. He’s chasing more pitches outside the zone than he ever has. When he does make contact, it’s weak. Perhaps the most telling number from his dreadful season? Abreu has historically crushed offspeed stuff. Last year, his hard-hit rate on those pitches was 66%. This year? It’s 0%. Abreu has yet to make hard contact on a single offspeed pitch. And he’s not making up for it anywhere else: His hard-hit rate has fallen from 57% to 43% on fastballs and from 42% to 30% on breaking balls. The result isn’t just bad by his standards. It’s bad enough to make him the worst hitter in the American League.
5. Nolan Arenado (.232/.281/.324, 3 HR, 69 OPS+)
The Cardinals’ struggles this year have been well-documented. But Arenado’s performance manages to stand out even in that bleak set. He’s posting the highest strikeout rate of his career; the third baseman is swinging at more pitches outside the zone than he has in any year since his rookie season but is making contact with less of them. (As that would suggest, Arenado’s especially been struggling with whiffing on breaking balls.) And when he does make contact, he’s keeping the ball on the ground, with the worst groundball-to-flyball ratio he’s ever posted. Yes, the Cardinals have plenty of issues to address. But this one is at the top of the list.
