“How good is Queensland?”
The sunshine state delivered the Coalition a “miracle” in 2019, prompting Scott Morrison’s rhetorical praise. It also left progressive voters in other states plotting to excise Queensland from the commonwealth.
For a while, in the middle of the pandemic, the Queensland border closed, and their wish came true.
Despite Queensland’s conservative caricature – and the fact the Coalition has 23 of the 30 federal seats – the state is much more progressive than it is often characterised.
So what does that mean for the 2022 election? Here are the five questions that should be answered on election day.
Will Queensland shift the dial?
In 2019, Queensland was a known battleground – home to a string of regional and suburban seats held by the Coalition on small margins, and the most likely route to government for Bill Shorten’s Labor.
Many of those margins are no longer small. The big swings against Labor in 2019 mean the focus of this election will be elsewhere; those regional Queensland seats now only change hands in a landslide. Realistically, Labor needs two terms to regain its footing in places like Gladstone and Townsville.
This time around, the prime minister, Scott Morrison, and opposition leader, Anthony Albanese, have spent much less time in regional Queensland.
If anything, Queensland is conservative because voters up here don’t like to change governments. The state has a history of favouring incumbents. And Labor figures are cautious not to pin too many hopes that Queensland will be relevant to the overall election story.
But still, there are electorates in play.
Can moderate Liberals hold on in urban Brisbane seats against a red – or Green – wave?
The first two seats to fall in a swing to Labor are not necessarily the most marginal. Brisbane (4.9%) and Ryan (6%), inner-city seats held by moderate Liberals, are both likely to swing away from the Coalition over social issues and climate policy.
The complicating factor is the Greens. At local and state elections in recent years, the Greens have significantly increased their vote in the city and inner-suburban areas covered by three federal electorates – Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith. Some polls have put the Greens’ statewide vote in Queensland at the highest level in the country: up to 18%.
The mathematics are simple in Brisbane and Ryan – if the Liberal National party primary vote is down (as polling predicts), the seat will likely fall to whichever of Labor or the Greens can record the most primary votes. Some polling has shown the Greens very close.
The Green wave could also threaten Labor in Griffith, which is held by environment spokeswoman Terri Butler. Of the three inner-city seats, Griffith is the most progressive. But that also makes it harder for the Greens to win in a preferential contest where the LNP finishes third.
Will Morrison’s popularity hold in the outer suburbs?
While much of the wash-up in 2019 focused on regional Queensland, outer suburban Brisbane also hosted marginal electorates that have shifted to safe LNP seats.
Remember the clamour around Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, and the GetUp! campaign to unseat him? There’s been little such noise this time. Ditto in Petrie and Forde – seats that were tentative for the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull but which have now become comfortable under Morrison.
Longman, a bellwether wedged between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, fits the same mould.
While it remains to be seen whether Labor can flip Longman (or any of the longer-shot suburban seats), these electorates will reveal the PM’s popularity with the voters he has cultivated as his core support.
Who will triumph in the rightwing battle for the Senate?
The Senate campaign in Queensland pits rightwing minor parties – mostly headed by LNP defectors – up against the LNP in a battle for a final seat.
Polling suggests the Coalition will win two Senate seats, and Labor is also favoured to win two. The Greens are also polling strongly and the most likely to take the fifth spot.
The remaining seat will be fought between Pauline Hanson, Campbell Newman, Clive Palmer and the Coalition’s assistant minister for women, Amanda Stoker. Each are pitching for a similar subset of voters: anti-mandate folks, Christian conservatives and climate change deniers, including those on the right who have grown disillusioned with the LNP.
Stoker has been narrowcasting to Christian groups; Hanson retains strong personal support in some parts of Queensland but appears to have little money and a string of ghost candidates in lower house seats; Palmer has spent big (again) and has some momentum; and Newman remains a big personality in the state.
Have conversations about coal and climate changed enough to bring regional seats back into play?
In the middle of the election campaign, The Next Economy released a report – What Regions Need – that showed how some of the fraught, binary political conversations in regional Australia have changed in the past year.
It showed that people in fossil fuel towns now accept the inevitability of an energy transition.
In Flynn, which Labor rates an outside (but still narrow) chance, the party’s campaign has been buoyed by the state government’s aggressive renewable energy plans and hydrogen plans for Gladstone, and a more nuanced message about the need to diversify the local economy.
So are the coal wars over? It remains to be seen. As the Guardian found while driving through Flynn, there is still scepticism in many communities, if not outright denialism. The Coalition’s net-zero commitment might also push some of these voters to minor parties.
It’s unlikely that regional seats will change hands. The closest contest is in Leichhardt, which runs from Cairns to Cape York and the Torres Strait.
Is the rain going to stick around?
It has been very wet, particularly in south-east Queensland. What on earth does the weather have to do with the election? A bit, actually.
Flooding in March left 3,600 homes – most in the Brisbane area – uninhabitable. More than 4,400 more were damaged. In the fortnight before the election, it has rained heavily and barely stopped.
Some voters have told us that this puts climate change at the front and centre of their considerations.
For all the policy back-and-forth, voting is ultimately an emotional decision. A psychological study from 2017 that analysed decades of voting and weather data found that a positive shift in temperature on election day often resulted in a positive shift in votes for the incumbent party.
Large numbers in south-east Queensland have voted at soaked and unseasonably humid prepoll booths. But if the sun makes an appearance on Saturday it might help turn the mood – even slightly – in electorates where voters are growing restless.
