After more than a decade of predictability thanks to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo’s otherworldly brilliance, variety has returned to the Ballon d’Or.
Between the prestigious award’s inauguration and Ronaldo’s first triumph in 2008, there were only eight multi-time winners.
There have now been three different winners over the past four years, and 2026 has the potential to provide another surprise champion due to next summer’s World Cup, which will likely have a huge bearing on who lifts the golden ball aloft in Paris next September.
2018 winner Luka Modrić and 2023 winner Messi triumphed off the back of legacy-defining campaigns on the grandest stage the sport has to offer. So, with the North American spectacle in mind but other factors taken into account, too, here are Sports Illustrated’s leading contenders for the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
15. Cristiano Ronaldo—Al Nassr/Portugal
If you haven’t already guessed it, you certainly will by the end of this article: The 2026 Ballon d’Or will be shaped decisively by the World Cup. That reality alone explains why Cristiano Ronaldo remains in the conversation.
There is no scenario in which his performances in the Saudi Pro League would be enough on their own. But if Ronaldo were to lead Portugal to World Cup glory—finally lifting the one major honour missing from his career—it would be impossible to ignore.
We have seen this script before. Lionel Messi’s triumph in 2022 was effectively sealed by Argentina’s success in Qatar. If Ronaldo were to replicate that feat four years later and still be denied the award, the backlash would be enormous.
14. Raphinha—Barcelona/Spain
How sweet would this victory be?
Raphinha was rightly outraged by his perceived snub at the 2025 ceremony, as Barcelona’s domestic treble-winning talisman finished fifth despite arguably the single greatest individual campaign of the year.
It wasn’t only the Brazilian forward and his partner who were disgruntled, stacks of players and managers queued up to voice their disdain for the lowly treatment of a player who was so crucial to an all-conquering Barcelona side. The Catalan giants are even more reliant upon Raphinha this season, when collective glory could also warrant some much-deserved individual recognition.
13. Vinicius Junior—Real Madrid/Brazil
Vinicius Junior’s agonizing and ultimately unsuccessful brush with the Ballon d’Or will only spur him on. The Brazilian was denied the prize in 2024, beaten to the award by Rodri, and his decision to boycott the ceremony as a result certainly caused controversy.
But, on the pitch, there is no denying his brilliance. After an unhappy spell under Xabi Alonso to start the season, Real Madrid and their fleet-footed No. 7 have blossomed into the campaign following a change of manager.
Brazil’s success at the World Cup could put Vinicius Jr in contention for the 2026 vote.
12. Luis Díaz—Bayern Munich/Colombia
Luis Díaz struggled to escape Mohamed Salah’s shadow in 2024–25 but the explosive Colombian won’t face similar issues this season.
He’s doing exceptionally well at Bayern Munich having departed Liverpool over the summer, immediately endearing himself to supporters in Bavaria with his incredible work rate and goalscoring knack.
The fleet-footed winger is such a joyous watch when operating at full tilt and the Bundesliga title will prove a formality for Bayern this term. Díaz has been crucial to this romp towards the title and will also prove indispensable in the push for Champions League glory.
However, Díaz will struggle to beat clubmates Michael Olise and Harry Kane to the Ballon d’Or, and he’s unlikely to astound on the international stage over the summer. Colombia have qualified for the World Cup, but are not expected to leave a significant mark on the competition.
11. Bruno Fernandes—Manchester United/Portugal
Bruno Fernandes is at a point in his career where he is no longer bound by the rules of mere mortals. “He doesn’t play football,” the legendary two-time Premier League champion Thierry Henry said of Manchester United’s captain, “he thinks it.”
Few players’ brains move quicker than the one orchestrating everything good at Old Trafford. Michael Carrick has transformed the club’s form but Fernandes has simply improved his already lofty level. No matter the chaos unfolding around him, the cerebral Portuguese playmaker has continued to thrive.
Should he, rather than Cristiano Ronaldo, spearhead an impressive World Cup campaign for Portugal after a strong domestic finish for Manchester United, there’s no reason why he couldn’t become the fourth Portuguese player to hoist aloft the golden ball.
10. Ousmane Dembélé—Paris Saint-Germain/France
There were so many factors in PSG’s all-conquering 2024–25 campaign, with nine members of Luis Enrique’s squad earning a 2025 Ballon d’Or nomination.
PSG remain the world’s most potent outfit, but Dembélé has struggled for minutes so far this season due to injury issues. His role change was perhaps the biggest reason for their eventual success in Enrique’s second year, and the Frenchman’s season didn’t burst into life until the new year.
However, given the inconsistency and fitness woes Dembélé has manifested throughout his career, he’s unlikely to repeat in 2026.
9. Lionel Messi—Inter Miami/Argentina
The greatest to ever do it continues to emerge on social media timelines with his latest dazzling MLS sequences, but Messi isn’t a potential contender for next year’s award because of his Inter Miami exploits.
Instead of departing on a high after Qatar, Messi remains the central figure of the world’s finest national team. Argentina has since added another Copa América to rubber-stamp their dominance over South America, and the defending champion is gunning to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup.
If Messi, at 39, is able to inspire his country to that extraordinary feat, he may well be the frontrunner to claim a ninth Ballon d’Or.
8. Erling Haaland—Manchester City/Norway
Haaland would already have a Ballon d’Or in his back pocket if Messi hadn’t embarked on perhaps the greatest World Cup campaign by an individual in 2022.
The Norwegian’s record-breaking 2022–23 season earned him a second-place finish in the voting. He’s since finished fifth and 26th.
Haaland continues to score goals at a frightening rate and his general level at the start of 2025–26 has arguably been the best ever seen. The Nordic goal-gobbler has since tailed off and it will require Manchester City to improve as a collective for him to be recognized at next year’s ceremony.
Norway’s first World Cup since 1998 could offer another platform for his prolific edge.
7. Pedri—Barcelona/Spain
“Today is not a victory for me, it is for Spanish football...” Rodri said after claiming the prize in 2024, “...for so many players who have not won it and have deserved it, like [Andrés] Iniesta, Xavi [Hernández], Iker [Casillas], Sergio Busquets, so many others. It is for Spanish football and for the figure of the midfielder.”
Xavi and Iniesta were doubtless worthy of Ballon d’Or success, and we shouldn’t be hesitant to suggest that Pedri has been performing at a level comparable to the apexes of the aforementioned Barcelona greats.
The Spaniard is arguably the best central midfielder in football, and he’ll complement an already outstanding Spain triumvirate at next summer’s World Cup.
6. Vitinha—Paris Saint-Germain/Portugal
Vitinha secured bronze in the 2025 Ballon d’Or for the part he played in Paris Saint-Germain’s domestic and European dominance. The midfielder was Luis Enrique’s tempo-setter in the engine room, dictating the domination with swagger and composure.
There are few playmakers capable of matching Vitinha’s productivity and importance, with PSG leaning on their maestro to conduct things on the grandest stages. He’s unflappable and deservedly made the podium during the most recent Ballon d’Or vote.
Portugal will be among the contenders for the World Cup this summer despite not being the favourites for the competition, with Vitinha critical to their chances of more major silverware.
He’s expected to be in the running for football’s most coveted individual prize once again.
5. Declan Rice—Arsenal/England
Declan Rice has earned back-to-back Ballon d’Or nominations in 2024 and 2025, making the 30-man shortlist on both occasions, finishing 26th and 27th, respectively.
As he continues to thrive under Mikel Arteta at Arsenal, there is little doubt he will feature on the shortlist again in 2026. His authoritative midfield displays have been central to the Gunners’ Premier League title charge and their Champions League ambitions, with his all-action influence at both ends of the pitch marking him out as one of Europe’s standout midfielders.
Lifting the league title would significantly strengthen his case, but if Rice can also help Arsenal make a deep run in Europe, he could find himself pushing much higher up the rankings.
Midfielders have received increased recognition in recent Ballon d’Or voting, with a central player finishing in the top three in three of the last four editions. If Rice maintains his current level—and can also help England go far at the World Cup—he has a genuine chance to make that four in five.
4. Kylian Mbappé—Real Madrid/France
Many would’ve projected Kylian Mbappé to be a multi-time winner by now after he burst onto the scene like very few ever have at the 2018 World Cup.
The Frenchman has thrived on the biggest stage for his country, and he continues to deliver time and time again for Real Madrid—his goals almost singlehandedly keeping Los Blancos in the race for La Liga and a 16th Champions League crown.
Mbappé was La Liga’s top goalscorer last term, and he’s almost certain to retain that crown in 2025–26. Throw some trophies in, as well as winning another World Cup with France, and he has a great chance at finally securing the ultimate individual prize.
3. Michael Olise—Bayern Munich/France
Olise certainly isn’t bereft of self-assurance, and looks like a future Ballon d’Or winner in the making. Whether 2026 is a year or two too soon remains to be seen, but the fleet-footed France international has established himself as one of the world’s most watchable wide men over the past 12 months.
Kompany’s Bayern Munich are embarking on a PSG-like evolution, and Olise is at the forefront of their dominance alongside Díaz and Kane.
Aesthetics matter for voters, and Olise’s easy-on-the-eye style complements the inevitable productivity that comes with performing in the Bundesliga. If he can deliver in the biggest moments, and potentially for France next summer, Olise has a chance.
2. Lamine Yamal—Barcelona/Spain
Yamal made a strong push in 2025 and many would argue that he was the best soccer player in the world last year, even if he wasn’t able to match the likes of Raphinha, Mohamed Salah and Dembélé statistically.
The youngster is the epitome of a generation-defining talent who, on his current trajectory, will undoubtedly end his career as a multi-time Ballon d’Or winner and one of the greatest of all time.
Yamal has struggled with a groin injury in 2025–26, but he’s now back fooling La Liga left backs with his combination of confidence, ingenuity and outstanding technique.
He may well be celebrating his crowning glory at MetLife Stadium next July, and at 19, Yamal would become the youngest Ballon d’Or victor. He’s gotten used to smashing records, though.
1. Harry Kane—Bayern Munich/England
Has the world finally stopped pretending to regard Kane as anything but an all-time great center forward? Was it that Bundesliga triumph that convinced the masses?
Kane has been doing this for years, but sluggish performances at major tournaments and his trophy drought were easy sticks to beat the striker with. Oh, and also because he played for Tottenham Hotspur.
The Bayern forward hasn’t somehow managed to reach new heights in Germany, performing with a swagger that suggests he’s considerably better than those he’s competing against.
Kane shatters scoring records for Bayern on a near-weekly basis, and Vincent Kompany’s team look like a serious Champions League contender.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Favorites to Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or—Ranked.
