The summer is nearly here, meaning we're getting closer to starting fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn't easy, however, especially for players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point: In 2019, Michael Thomas went absolutely bananas for the Saints with nearly 375 fantasy points on a record 149 catches for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns. As a result, he was the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy drafts and a surefire first-round pick. The aftermath, though, was not nearly as good.
Thomas averaged 12 fantasy points a game, down more than 11 points from the previous season, and missed nine games due to injuries. Of course, predicting a long-term ailment is tough, but Thomas wasn't nearly as productive even when he played.
The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Thomas was so good in 2019. That leads me to this series, aptly named "The Fantasy Case Against…" where I'll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land thinks are a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years, which could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
I started the 2022 “The Fantasy Case Against” series with Cooper Kupp, so now let's look at another fantasy superstar, Las Vegas Raiders wideout Davante Adams.
2021 season
Adams was one of the two best wide receivers in fantasy football, behind only Kupp. He put up 123 catches on 169 targets with 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns. That was good enough to produce 344.3 fantasy points, the second-most points he has ever scored in a single season. Adams’ 29.6% target share was far and away the highest among all the Packers wideouts (19.1% more than Allen Lazard), and it was also the second-most among wideouts in the NFL with at least 16 games played (Kupp was first at 31.7%).
Did you know?
Adams averaged 21.5 points per game last season, the third time in his last three full seasons where he's averaged more than 21 points. In the last two years, he has scored 358.4 points (2020) and 344.3 points (2021). Those are the two highest point totals from a Packers wide receiver in the Super Bowl era. Adams has three of the top five all-time fantasy seasons from Green Bay wideouts, as he also ranks fifth with 329.6 points in 2018. Robert Brooks (331.8 points, 1995) and Sterling Sharpe (330.9 points, 1992) are the only other wide receivers in the top five based on PPR scoring systems.
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Historical trends
The Raiders have never had a wide receiver score more than 283.2 fantasy points in a season in the Super Bowl era. Not one. What’s more, the top five single-season PPR seasons from a Raiders wideout all are from Hall of Famer Tim Brown. He scored 283.2 points in 1995, 276.7 in 1997, 269.4 in 2001, 267.9 in 1994 and 260.8 in 1999.
During the Derek Carr era (2014-present), a Raiders wide receiver hasn't scored more than 259.1 points in a single season. That came in 2021 when Hunter Renfrow hit that mark. Only two other wideouts have scored more than 200 points with Carr at the helm. Michael Crabtree (2015-2016) and Amari Cooper (2015, 2016) hit twice the total.
By comparison, Adams scored 200-plus points in each of his last six seasons with the Packers, including three years where he has compiled more than 300 PPR points. In those three campaigns, Adams averaged a whopping 344.1 fantasy points.
Coaching & personnel changes
Adams will be in a new system in Las Vegas, led by head coach and offensive mind Josh McDaniels. In his 16 seasons as either a head coach or offensive coordinator, McDaniels has produced a top-10 fantasy wideout seven times. That includes two who have finished in the top two in points (Randy Moss – 2007, Brandon Lloyd – 2010).
In these seven instances, Tom Brady was the quarterback four times. The other three top-10 wideouts McDaniels has produced came with Matt Cassel (2008) and Kyle Orton (2009, 2010) as the starting quarterbacks. So, while there is a downgrade for Adams from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, that shouldn’t be enough to scare fantasy managers. Carr is a far more polished and productive quarterback than Cassel or Orton.
Carr and Adams also have a past rapport from their time in college at Fresno State. In two seasons together, Adams produced a combined 233 catches for 3,031 yards with a bananas 38 touchdown catches in just 16 games. Those are big-time totals, folks.
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Verdict
Adams has long been one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football, and I still expect him to produce attractive totals with the Raiders. However, I don’t see him producing at the same level as he did in Green Bay. Why? Well, Adams had very little competition for targets with his former team. In fact, no other Packers wideout had more than a 12.6% target share in a single season since 2018. That was Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2020).
Now in Las Vegas, Adams joins a team that saw Hunter Renfrow post a 21.2% share in 2021. Darren Waller, who missed six games due to injuries, saw a 15.4% share. In his last three seasons, Waller has averaged 8.3 targets a game. In that same time, no Packers pass-catchers (wideouts or tight ends) averaged more than five targets.
Adams will have far more competition for chances in a McDaniels offense that has not thrown the ball more than 59.2 percent of the time in the last four seasons (two with Brady). One of those years was an obvious outlier (2020) because Cam Newton was the starting quarterback (more running), but Carr and the Raiders have still thrown the ball at a higher rate in that same time. McDaniels should and likely will throw the ball more often with the addition of Adams, but how much remains to be seen.
This season, a reasonable projection for Adams is 80-90 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards, and eight to 10 touchdowns. On the higher end, that would be comparable to the totals we saw from Stefon Diggs in 2021. He finished with 285.5 points and was seventh among wideouts. That’s solid, but it’s also around 60 fewer points than Adams in his final season in Green Bay. Unless injuries occur, those should be your expectations.
I’d be comfortable drafting him late in Round 1 behind Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, but with the knowledge that a decline in production is likely.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business!
