The summer is nearly here, meaning we're getting closer to starting fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn't easy, however, especially for players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point: In 2019, Michael Thomas went absolutely bananas for the Saints with nearly 375 fantasy points on a record 149 catches for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns. As a result, he was the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy drafts and a surefire first-round pick. The aftermath, though, was not nearly as good.
Thomas averaged 12 fantasy points a game, down more than 11 points from the previous season, and missed nine games due to injuries. Of course, predicting a long-term ailment is tough, but Thomas wasn't nearly as productive even when he played.
The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Thomas was so good in 2019. That leads me to this series, aptly named "The Fantasy Case Against…" where I'll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land thinks are a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years, which could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only predictable thing about the NFL is that it's often unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
I started the 2022 “The Fantasy Case Against” series with Cooper Kupp, so now let's look at another fantasy superstar, Las Vegas Raiders wideout Davante Adams.
2021 season
Adams was one of the two best wide receivers in fantasy football, behind only Kupp. He put up 123 catches on 169 targets with 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns. That was good enough to produce 344.3 fantasy points, the second-most points he has ever scored in a single season. Adams’ 29.6% target share was far and away the highest among all the Packers wideouts (19.1% more than Allen Lazard), and it was also the second-most among wideouts in the NFL with at least 16 games played (Kupp was first at 31.7%).
Did you know?
Adams averaged 21.5 points per game last season, the third time in his last three full seasons where he's averaged more than 21 points. In the last two years, he has scored 358.4 points (2020) and 344.3 points (2021). Those are the two highest point totals from a Packers wide receiver in the Super Bowl era. Adams has three of the top five all-time fantasy seasons from Green Bay wideouts, as he also ranks fifth with 329.6 points in 2018. Robert Brooks (331.8 points, 1995) and Sterling Sharpe (330.9 points, 1992) are the only other wide receivers in the top five based on PPR scoring systems.
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