For Arsenal, the pattern was all too familiar. They won the xG against Manchester United on Sunday, depending which model you prefer, by around 3.5 to 0.5, but they drew the game 1-1 and with a certain inevitability, lost on penalties. The previous Tuesday, in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final, they’d won the xG 3.1-1.2 but lost 2-0 to Newcastle. The previous Saturday, in the league, they drew 1-1 at Brighton despite having won the xG 1.5-0.9. They have begun 2025 by failing to turn dominance into goals and, very quickly, their hopes of a trophy are evaporating.
This was a very good weekend for the FA Cup. Plymouth, bottom of the Championship, pulled off the big upset by eliminating Brentford, while League Two Bromley went ahead before succumbing to Newcastle, non-league Tamworth took Tottenham to extra-time and there were further shocks as Doncaster and Exeter eliminated Hull and Oxford. But the culmination of Sunday’s sulphuric clash at the Emirates: no sense there of Premier League sides soft-pedalling. For Arsenal, the consequences could be hugely significant.
