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Fortune
Fortune
Allie Garfinkle

The false premise of prediction markets

young adult male posing for a portrait (Credit: Courtesy of Polymarket)

Prediction markets have been around for a long time. 

16th century Italians placed bets on who the next Pope would be, and election betting in the U.S. goes (at least) as far back as the late 1800s. Amid the uncertain frenzy of major current events, people look to betting as they try to make sense of the unknown.

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