The EU is braced for a rise in the hard right. What matters is how the centre responds

A ‘grand coalition’ of centre-right, centre-left and liberal parties has always held an absolute majority of seats in the European parliament. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA

When the results of the European parliamentary elections start to emerge on Sunday night, polls suggest they will show that the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly will have tilted, unambiguously, to the right.

Yet, for all the talk of a significant surge in support for the forces of Europe’s hard right, their gains should prove broadly in line with a steady progression over the past couple of decades or more. The difference will be in the response.