Australia’s major pollsters are all tipping Labor to beat the Coalition on election day. But one data firm says it has picked up a trend showing the contest is much closer than it seems.
Elisa Choy is the founder and managing director of Maven Data, a company that uses a form of artificial intelligence called natural language processing to glean insights from open source data, including social media, websites and blogs. Essentially it slurps up as much information online that it can, then applies a secret sauce so it can find trends about what people are thinking about and how they’re thinking about it.
In the past, Maven Data has used its tools to extract insights on subjects ranging from Australians’ attitudes towards migration, the wellness industry globally, and the 2020 US election. Choy even brags it has been able to predict the past three winners of the reality television show The Voice.
Now it is turning its gaze towards the Australian federal election.
What it’s seeing, Choy says, is that the election is still neck and neck. Maven Data’s analysis looks at the amount of engagement and sentiment towards the subject. Choy says the two major parties have similar engagement, but the Coalition remains a stronger brand.
However, she cautioned that Scott Morrison’s reputation appears to be holding back the government’s chances: “Sentiment towards him is very negative, especially on issues including women, integrity and climate change.”
Maven Data’s analysis also looks at some of the minor parties. It found the Greens have a very strong sentiment — “almost love” — but don’t have a strong engagement across the country. Plus their pillar issue of climate change has not featured during the campaign.
The United Australia Party on the other hand has strong engagement across the country, as issues such as “freedom” and ending COVID-19 restrictions continue to resonate. Choy was surprised that Palmer’s party is similar in terms of engagement to Labor and the Greens.
Beyond the election, Choy says Maven Data has picked up a tainting of Australia’s brand linked to the federal government’s border decisions during the pandemic: “From a business and industry standpoint, an election will pass but business continues. The world is watching.”
