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The domino effect leaving Moto2's new star without a MotoGP seat

In just under a month, things have changed significantly on the MotoGP rider market. Sergio Garcia has gone from being the object of desire of Pramac or Trackhouse, the Spanish rider's agents asked not to do anything without letting them know first, to digesting the prospect that he will have to continue in Moto2 next season regardless of whether he is crowned champion.

The 21-year-old's trajectory and inertia is making him the man with the greatest projection in Moto2. Just past the championship's halfway point, Garcia leads the overall standings by 18 points from closest pursuer Ai Ogura. That follows a heroic performance last Sunday at Silverstone, which catapulted him from the 20th place he occupied on lap one to fourth at the chequered flag.

However, none of that seems to be enough to get him promoted to MotoGP next year. It would be a real slap in the face that will hurt even more if we take into account that Ogura is one step away from becoming Raul Fernandez's team-mate at Trackhouse, and that Somkiat Chantra is finalising his move to LCR in place of Takaaki Nakagami. Both the Japanese and the Thai riders have underperformed compared to Garcia, but that has been a less decisive factor than others.

Until the German Grand Prix, the event that marked the summer break, Garcia was wanted by at least Trackhouse and Pramac. Motorsport.com understands that the commitment and resources from Yamaha in its new satellite team led the executives of the American structure to seek an alternative. The answer to that was Ogura, whose announcement is only pending final contract details.

With that equation already solved, everything seemed ready for Garcia to join Paolo Campinoti's team. Pramac was also in contact with 2023 Moto2 runner-up Tony Arbolino, in case Garcia's deal did not materialise. Discussing the MT Helmets Moto2 rider, Campinoti said: "Sergio is a very hard worker, I really like the way he rides, he is very smooth."

Fabio Quartararo, the spearhead of the Yamaha project, also offered his opinion on Garcia at the Sachsenring before leaving for vacation.

Ogura and Aldeguer will both graduate to MotoGP next year, but Moto2 points leader Garcia (right) is set to miss out (Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images)

"He's had a similar trajectory to mine," said the 2021 world champion. "With Pons, he didn't do so well, but with SpeedUp he is going very fast. I have told Yamaha. It's not my decision, but it's good that they listen to the riders."

But once he returned from the summer break at Silverstone, the Frenchman spoke in favour of Arbolino: "He is ready to make the jump to MotoGP. I know what he is training for and what he can do. It's true that he's my friend, but that's not why I'm betting on him."

Away from Pramac, those who had not yet finalised their line-ups moved in parallel. Fabio Di Giannantonio continuing in Valentino Rossi's VR46 team was never in doubt, and even less so after the Roman agreed his future directly with Ducati. In that sense, it was logical to think of Fermin Aldeguer as Di Giannantonio's team-mate.

"Sergio is a very hard worker, I really like the way he rides, he is very smooth" 
Paolo Campinoti

That scenario was the best fit for the Borgo Panigale company, having secured the Spaniard in January with the promise of a place in MotoGP in 2025. Aldeguer's proposed move to VR46 left open the possibility that Jack Miller, who KTM had supported until the end of his project, could join Gresini.

Despite not yet being 30 years old, Miller is one of the most experienced members of the grid, having raced for three different brands (Honda, Ducati and KTM). He remains one of the most charismatic and high-profile riders, not least in Australia, where he is the only representative in MotoGP.

Motorsport.com has learned that the Linfox group, one of Australia's largest transport companies and owner of the Phillip Island circuit, recently held several talks with Gresini owner Nadia Padovani, who was approached about a takeover deal. In the end, the widow of founder Fausto Gresini opted not to sell. Had the deal gone through, in all likelihood Miller would have been back on a Ducati, in this case for the Faenza-based team.

Padovani's refusal, however, did not invalidate Aldeguer's hypothetical arrival. But Valentino Rossi's close relationship with Franco Morbidelli did.

Morbidelli was offered a route back onto a Ducati at VR46 after Pramac switched to Yamaha, leaving Aldeguer to take the Gresini option (Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images)

The change of supplier for Pramac, as it switches from Ducati to compete with Yamaha bikes in 2025, closed any possibility of Morbidelli remaining, given his previous relationship with the Iwata-based manufacturer. Rossi though came to his protege's rescue and welcomed him to VR46, filling the vacancy that Ducati considered ideal for Aldeguer. Ducati's commitment to Aldeguer will lead him to become Marc Marquez's replacement at Gresini when the #93 rider joins the factory team.

With the previous unknowns resolved, the only bike that still has no owner is the second M1 of Pramac, the first already secured by Miguel Oliveira some days ago. In principle, Garcia was the ideal candidate for that second Yamaha because he fulfilled many of the requirements the team's bosses were looking for. He is young and talented, and his strength would blend perfectly with Oliveira's proven experience.

The problem is that he competes with Miller, who already has great links at Pramac and he has the powers that be in the championship on his side. They are very focused on the commercial side, as is logical, and will do everything in their power to prevent the departure of the only Aussie rider on the grid.

Evidence of this is the meeting held last weekend at Silverstone in the Pramac motorhome. Miller and Aki Ajo, his representative, were present with Pramac managers and Dan Rossomondo, the commercial director of the world championship.

A desire to secure Miller's future in MotoGP could cost it the potential Moto2 champion (Photo by: KTM Images)
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