The coming 2024 general elections and the 2024 Assembly polls in Haryana have increased political activity in the State. The Congress, the key challenger to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government, seems to be trying to co-opt the BJP’s potential vote bank. The Leader of the Opposition, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, recently promised four Deputy Chief Ministers from different communities, including one woman, if the Congress forms the next government in the State.
The politics of Haryana revolves around the coalition of castes. Against this backdrop, Mr. Hooda’s declaration is being seen as an attempt to make inroads into the non-Jat vote base. It is the consolidation of non-Jats which is believed to have been a key reason for the BJP’s emergence in Haryana since 2014. Jats account for about 25%, Brahmins constitute about 12%, and Scheduled Castes form about 21% of the population.
A surprise win
In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP had sprung a surprise by winning Haryana. One of the key reasons for its victory was the consolidation of non-Jat votes, especially in the northern and southern parts of the State, where non-Jats outnumber Jats. The same consolidation was believed to have helped the party to come close to power in 2019 as well, even though the BJP fell short of a clear majority in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. The BJP won 40 seats in the Assembly polls and forged an alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which had 10 MLAs, to form the government.
In a recent interview with The Hindu, Mr. Hooda stated that the four promised Deputy Chief Ministers would be from the Brahmin, Other Backward Classes, and Dalit communities if a Jat becomes Chief Minister. And if a non-Jat becomes Chief Minister, the Deputy Chief Ministers would be from the Jat and other communities. The intention, he said, “is to give respect to all with a balancing act.”
The Congress’s announcement seems to be a preemptive move. The party has indicated that it is adopting an ‘inclusive approach’ towards different communities by assuring them that they will be given adequate representation and respect in the government. If the Congress is able to successfully convey its message of taking along different sections of society, it could make electoral gains.
The Congress’s conscious effort of co-option is quite clear as the party looks all set to experiment with the technique of social engineering by attempting to rope in different communities in State politics. The latest debate surrounding the caste census seems to be a reason behind the move to announce four Deputy Chief Ministers. The Congress has made it clear that if it forms government in Haryana, it will conduct the caste census, which it feels is important for the welfare and uplift of all sections that have remained financially and socially underdeveloped for years.
Anti-incumbency
The BJP, which has been in power in Haryana for around nine years, will have to fight the anti-incumbency factor in the run-up to the polls. The party, however, has been asserting that the State government led by Chief Minister Manohar Lal has effectively fought corruption and nepotism and has given a new direction to State politics by ensuring complete transparency in the system. As the Congress takes on the BJP, the challenge before the ruling party, which is riddled with factionalism and has been running for the past around nine years without block and district committees, is to put up a united fight.
In the Jat-dominated politics of Haryana, after forming the government in 2014, the BJP selected Manohar Lal, a non-Jat, as Chief Minister. He became the first non-Jat Chief Minister of the State in 18 years after Bhajan Lal. Since then, the feeling among Jats of loss of political power at the helm cannot be denied, say political observers.
The Jat votes have traditionally been divided among the Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and the JJP, the breakaway faction of the INLD. The JJP, an alliance partner in the government, is also expected to be fighting the anti-incumbency factor. If the Congress is able to retain and consolidate the Jat vote bank in addition to garnering the support of other communities thorough its co-opt approach, it could see a better electoral performance than the last Assembly and parliamentary elections in Haryana.
