The men’s Sweet 16 is set for the NCAA tournament, and it’s time for a reset. We lost half the No. 1 seeds over the first round as Purdue lost in historic fashion to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, and reigning champion Kansas dropped a heartbreaker to No. 8 Arkansas.
There are 11 different conferences represented in the final 16 teams, with only the Big East (3), SEC (3), and Big 12 (2) having multiple representatives. Once again, the Big Ten — which hasn’t won a men’s NCAA basketball title since 2000 — is leaving everything up to Michigan State and Tom Izzo.
The last seven title winners have all been eliminated, and there is no Kentucky, Kansas, Villanova, Duke or North Carolina remaining to vie for the championship. There doesn’t feel like there’s a ton of separation from 1 to 16 here, so breaking them out is challenging.
Let’s take a look at how the remaining teams stack up.
16
Princeton
Never bet against a double-digit seed from New Jersey, it seems. Princeton follows in the footsteps of last year’s darling — and pride and joy of Jersey City — Saint Peter’s with not only a first round upset of a No. 2 seed (in this case Arizona), but making it to the Sweet 16 as well.
The Tigers have won a slow-paced slog (59-55 over the Wildcats) and proven they can put points on the board (78-63 win against Missouri). But how will Creighton’s ability to shoot threes and bang down low with Ryan Kalkbrenner affect the Princeton defense?
15
Florida Atlantic
The Owls may be 15th in these rankings, but counting out FAU would be silly. They are top-40 in both KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency, and like to get out and run. Across the court, however, will be the Tennessee Volunteers with a defense that seems more similar to rugby at times than basketball. Tennessee has the No. 1 defense in the country, and it was in full display against Duke last game out.
14
San Diego State
Defense, defense, defense. The only real chance SDSU will have at the upset will be to make it hard for Alabama to score. The problem is, the Aztecs lack a little offensively, and that Bama defense is no joke.
13
Arkansas
You can guarantee that if the Razorbacks move on to the Elite Eight, head coach Eric Musselman will absolutely take his shirt off again. Arkansas knocked off the reigning champion Kansas, but they’ll have their hands full with UConn. It’s not impossible to notch another upset, but they’ll have to keep the Huskies on the offensive boards.
12
Creighton
Three Big East teams! Creighton will try to play the role of the evil stepmother to Princeton’s Cinderella, and they have the pieces to do so. The Bluejays do everything at a consistent and solid level, making them hard to beat. Can they get Kalkbrenner going and get the three ball to fall? Creighton has good guards and great fundamentals.
11
Michigan State
Not sure if you’ve heard this before, but Tom Izzo is made for March. The Spartans are the lone Big Ten team still dancing, and they’ll face a strong K-State squad. Can MSU keep hitting threes and contain Markquis Nowell? Can Izzo add another Elite Eight to the collection?
10
Kansas State
Speaking of K-State, how fun is this squad? Jerome Tang has been incredible this season getting the Wildcats to this point, and they could keep pushing behind great guard play and tenacious defense. They’ll have to defend the three-point line and take good care of the ball.
9
Miami
Don’t let the perception of the ACC being down fool you: the Hurricanes are the real deal. Isaiah Wong is one of the most underrated players in the country, and he’s got fellow backcourt mates like Nijel Pack and Wooga Poplar to make things difficult for opponents. Norchad Omier came into the tournament with a tweaked ankle from the ACC tournament, but if the Canes are firing on all cylinders, you can’t count them out.
8
Xavier
If the Musketeers get hot from three, watch out. Xavier is the third-best team from deep, and you have to watch out for Souley Boum, Jack Nunge and Adam Kunkel, all of whom are shooting over 40% for the season. If the threes aren’t falling, however, it could be a long day. Can Xavier slow down Texas enough to earn a spot in the Elite Eight?
7
Connecticut
The Big East! UConn has the third most-efficient offense in the country, and that’s made more difficult to defend by their abilities on the offensive glass. The Huskies grab nearly 40% of their own misses, and they assist 63% of their made baskets. That’s really, really hard to stop.
6
Tennessee
If you thought Tennessee was going to be lost without Zakai Ziegler, think again. In one of the more stunning moves of the tournament, the Vols absolutely smothered Duke, holding the Blue Devils to just 52 points. Duke was a Final Four favorite from a lot of the “experts,” having won nine straight heading into the tournament. Instead, Tennessee made everything difficult. Expect the same from one of the three remaining SEC teams as they face a run-and-gun Florida Atlantic team.
5
Gonzaga
Is this the year for the Zags? It feels like the pressure is off Mark Few’s squad now that they’re not the undefeated No. 1 seed that’s expected to win the title, but they’re facing a huge test in the Sweet 16 with a really good and experienced UCLA squad. Can Drew Timme break through for Gonzaga?
4
UCLA
Speaking of…UCLA! The Bruins have Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell — from the squad that went to the Final Four in 2021 — to anchor the team this year, and they’re a formidable foe. The offense isn’t overly great at anything but it isn’t weak at anything, either. They take care of the ball well, and the defense is top-notch.
3
Texas
The Longhorns withstood a solid rally from a hot Penn State squad to earn a spot in the Sweet 16. Texas has the magical combo of being top-15 in KenPom in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and that generally means good things in the postseason.
2
Alabama
The Tide haven’t really hit their stride yet, and maybe that’s a scary thing since they pretty much cruised through the first two rounds. Brandon Miller bounced back from a zero-point performance in round one to put up 19 against Maryland in the Round of 32. Jahvon Quinerly has 35 points and is 5-for-10 from three in the two games combined.
1
Houston
Some folks might think Alabama should be in this top spot, but what Houston did in the second half against Auburn shows just how dangerous they can be on both sides of the ball. The Cougars mounted a comeback in essentially a true road game — the Birmingham site was just 111 miles from Auburn — and won emphatically, 81-64.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad trailed by 10 at halftime, then outscored the Tigers 50-23 in the second half, all while star player Marcus Sasser battled an injury. Houston’s defense was menacing, holding Auburn to an all-time atrocious shooting performance over the final 20 minutes.
