The Indianapolis Colts have decided to part ways with Carson Wentz after one rollercoaster season that saved its biggest drop for the end.
At 9-6 entering Week 17 with two games remaining against teams that were outside the playoff picture, the Colts were thought to be a lock for the postseason. Instead they dropped both games, including an embarrassing 15-point loss to the two-win Jacksonville Jaguars in the finale, and found themselves watching the playoffs from the couch like the rest of us.
In a move that appears to be the fallout from that collapse, the Colts reportedly agreed Wednesday to trade Wentz to the Washington Commanders. Now without a starting-caliber quarterback on their roster and uncertainty about where they go from here, there may be no better time to put a little futures action on the Colts.
More fun for the NFL schedule maker…. pic.twitter.com/6fjhbFeIJA
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2022
Wait, what? Bet on the Colts?
That’s right. As the Colts showed before their ultimate doom, they have a roster ready to win now. They have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor, a very good offensive line, a more than serviceable wide receiver corps and a defense that finished the season top 10 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
That points to a team on the hunt for a replacement they believe to be better and who can actually get them over the hump. Last season, all they needed was a quarterback who could manage things and make a play every once in a while. Wentz did that times, but when they needed him the most is when he had his biggest let down. He went a combined 33-of-56 (59%) for 333 yards, two touchdowns, two turnovers and 5.95 yards per attempt in his final two games. His 80.4 quarterback rating was well below the 94.6 he posted over the entire season.
The best quarterback thought to be available on the market wouldn’t represent a major upgrade over Wentz, but he has proven to be a reliable game manager with a track record of playoff success. That player is Jimmy Garoppolo.
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Garoppolo doesn’t present the same upside as a passer as Wentz, but his floor is a lot higher. His San Francisco 49ers were in a similar situation as the Colts last season, needing a win in their final game to make the playoffs, and they beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams to get in.
He also has flaws, and they were apparent on the 49ers’ final drive of their loss to the Rams in the NFC title game. But can he make the Colts into a playoff contender? Sure. And them overtaking the Tennessee Titans as AFC South champions wouldn’t be out of the question either.
There’s also the possibility they’re eyeing someone better that hasn’t been mentioned yet.
Without a quarterback, the Colts’ odds to win the division are +140 on Tipico Sportsbook, second to the Titans at -115. And that may be as long as they’ll get. Because once the team grabs a QB, it’ll likely be someone believed capable of getting them over the playoff hump. Not taking them backwards.
Indy’s odds to win the AFC are +1500 and their Super Bowl odds are +3000. It’s not quite time to talk about those yet.
