It’s one thing to end up on the wrong side of the largest comeback in NFL history.
It’s quite another to give up the largest comeback in NFL history and still cover the spread. Leave it to Jeff Saturday’s Indianapolis Colts to manage the truly baffling feat.
The Colts opened up a 33-0 halftime lead on the 10-3 Minnesota Vikings only to lose 39-36 in overtime on Saturday. The game was filled with plenty of questionable play calls, even worse refereeing and, naturally, Matt Ryan at quarterback.
All-in-all a recipe for a perfect disaster of a game. Except Colts (+3.5) bettors had it even worse (better?) as they had to watch a wager that looked certain to cash at halftime fall apart in the most excruciating way possible. And then Indianapolis still covered.
An absolute miracle.
Meanwhile, Vikings moneyline bettors went for an even more wild ride with an even more satisfying result.
The Vikes at one point were +9000 live at PointsBet Sportsbook. Caesars had Minnesota as long as +3000, which looks like the correct move in hindsight.
Just look at these cover probability timelines via Action Network:
There are no words to describe that type of sweat.
Bettors tried their best to find them anyways.
Betting Twitter can't believe what it just saw
the Vikings outscored the Colts 39-3 in the final 40 minutes of the game and still didn't cover pic.twitter.com/KUY6c7jvj0
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 17, 2022
Colts +4.5 never in doubt
— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) December 17, 2022
Since 1930, NFL teams were 1,548-1-1 leading by 30+ points in a game, per @nflnetwork.
The Minnesota Vikings were down 33-0 at halftime vs, the Colts.
They come back to win 39-36 in OT, the BIGGEST COMEBACK IN NFL HISTORY
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) December 17, 2022
Colts +4 never in doubt. Tip of the cap to Jeff Saturday, Matt Ryan and the whole organization. Buttoned up operation.
— Sean Jordan (@BaySean) December 17, 2022
— Freezing Cold Takes (@OldTakesExposed) December 17, 2022
The Vikings with the comeback 🔥
At one point in the game, the Vikings moneyline was at (+8000) 👀 pic.twitter.com/RYiYjJ139b
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) December 17, 2022
Here's a complete look at the win probability via ESPN Analytics.
The Colts had as high as a 99.6% chance to win. That came at 6:59 in the 3rd quarter, when it was 33-7. pic.twitter.com/8pjzozcuEK
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 17, 2022
Wasn’t gonna miss being part of history. Didn’t get 30-1, but +520 will do. 💰💰. And somehow Minny -3 pushes. Makes up for SGPs. pic.twitter.com/G1soa7ILlR
— David Bearman ESPN (@DBearmanESPN) December 17, 2022
Prior to today, the last team to overcome a deficit of 24+ points to win a regular season game was Washington in Week 7, 2015 vs Buccaneers – the Kirk Cousins "You Like That?" game https://t.co/f27vEcMfYZ
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 17, 2022
The Vikings were as high as +3000 on the live ML 😱 pic.twitter.com/UwXFSyMlOf
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) December 17, 2022
MIN decided to punt to IND from the IND 39 on 4th & 10 with 4:50 remaining in OT while tied 36 to 36.
With a Surrender Index of 80.12, this punt ranks at the 99.8th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2022 season, and the 99.7th percentile of all punts since 1999.
— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) December 17, 2022
Teams leading by 30+ are 1,548-1-1 in regular season and playoffs since 1930. The only teams who didn't win:
Oilers vs Bills in 1992 playoffs, led 35-3 and lost 41-38 in OT
Bills vs Broncos in 1960, led 38-7 and tied 38-38— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) December 17, 2022
The @Vikings overcame a 33-0 halftime deficit to force overtime against the Colts
33 points would be the largest comeback win in NFL history
Entering today, teams that trailed by 30+ points at the half were 0-132 in the Super Bowl era (incl. playoffs)
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 17, 2022
.@Vikings odds to win Super Bowl at @BetMGM
+2500: Before today
+3000: Down 33-0 at half
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) December 17, 2022
Not sure how this tweet got deleted, but:
Per @PB_Comms' Wyatt Yearout (@Strike3_Yearout), Vikings moneyline was 90/1 at @PointsBetUSA when the Colts went up 33-0.
"We took a couple small bets. The largest was $5."
Vikings win 39-36 in overtime.
— Patrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas) December 17, 2022
Down 33-0 at halftime, the Vikings were +9000 on the live moneyline @PointsBetUSA…
Now they are tied 🤯 pic.twitter.com/fRL4inQY5b
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 17, 2022
