Having enjoyed two Champions League qualification spots since 2020/21, Scotland now faces a five-way battle against Austria, Switzerland, Turkey and Serbia to keep them.
Celtic have been the main beneficiaries, finishing top of the pile in the two seasons since one of those spots became a guaranteed ticket to the group stage in 2021/22. In that sense, Rangers’ timing was poor. They may have stopped 10-In-A-Row, but were eliminated in the qualifiers by an Antonio Colak-inspired Malmo. Ange Postecoglou wrestled it back off Rangers in his first season at Parkhead, booking a seat at Europe’s top table, while the Ibrox club made it through the qualifiers, dumping PSV out to join their rivals and a share of the lucrative prize pot.
The Hoops will be back at the same stage with Brendan Rodgers this season, while Michael Beale has two rounds to negotiate if he is to get the chance to mix it with the Continent’s best. But that situation may not last too long if there’s not a better points return this time around.
An indepth look at each nation's five-year coefficient ranking by Extra Time Talk lays out the challenge Scotland has on its hands from 2024/25 onwards. That’s also when a major shake-up of the Champions League comes into effect, seeing teams play 10 matches against 10 different teams, then eight. Our two spots are guaranteed until then, but the coefficient ranking from this season will at that point kick in, and we didn't do ourselves any favours last term.
Rangers suffered the shame of being crowned the worst Champions League group stage team, ever. They shipped 22 goals in what was an admittedly tough group containing Liverpool, Napoli and Ajax. Not a single point was picked up, while Celtic managed just two draws.
Hearts’ Europa Conference League campaign produced two wins, both over Latvian champs RFS. But a combined total of 1,900 coefficient points means an improved showing is essential this time around. Either Celtic or Rangers dropping into the Europa League should help, while the benefit of Aberdeen making it through their playoff tie will depend on their draw. The Conference League group stage may be an easier arena in which to pick up points.
As unlikely as it is, Hearts or Hibs joining them there would be a massive help. The Hibees must beat either Vikingur or Inter Club D’escaldes to join the Jambos in the third qualifying round. That will be a tricky enough tie, and even a favourable draw would then see them pitched in with the likes of Aston Villa, Juventus and Frankfurt.
Scotland are currently ninth in the five-year coefficient table, but the chasing pack are hot on our heels. We accumulated just 11.400 points over the last two seasons (1.900 last year) – by far the worst of the five countries vying to the final two top ten spots.
Rangers’ run to the Europa League final the season previous was a help, but the others are making up ground on a more consistent basis. Scotland should just about have enough to hold on to a top-10 spot, but things will become much harder after this season if last year’s misery is repeated.
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