I am part of the problem.
After the NBA trade deadline, I ranked NBA Finals contenders, and I put the Cleveland Cavaliers 10th. Tenth! Behind teams such as the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks, despite Cleveland being ahead of both in the East standings.
I’m not the only one who feels this way. ESPN gives the Knicks and Bucks better title odds. FanDuel’s sportsbook does as well. With the Boston Celtics a heavy favorite regardless of conference, it seems the general consensus on the Cavs is they have the fourth-best chance to win the East even though they’re in second place.
So the disrespect, at least from me, stops today. To what degree? I’m not sure, but the Cavaliers have been absolutely hooping this season and are somehow not well regarded as actual contenders. That needs to change.
Cleveland pulled off an incredibly exciting win Tuesday night, storming back against the Dallas Mavericks in a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback, ignited and finished by Max Strus. The win kept the Cavs in second place in the East, two games in the loss column ahead of the Bucks.
On paper, at least, Cleveland absolutely has the profile of a team that can win the title. The Cavs are fourth in net rating, ahead of the likes of the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns—all teams who generally have better title odds, by the way. Cleveland is third in defensive efficiency. And while the Cavs are only 15th in offense, the gap between 15th and sixth is the same as the gap between sixth and third. Basically, a lot of teams can score this season. But not as many can defend as well as Cleveland.
The defense has been spearheaded by big man Jarrett Allen, who has returned from a disappointing playoff showing by having one of the finest seasons of his career. Allen had extra slack to pick up after Evan Mobley missed an extended stretch of time in the middle of the season, and both he and Donovan Mitchell responded with big-time efforts. (Mitchell’s backcourt partner Darius Garland missed over a month, too.)
Mitchell has been fantastic. He probably deserves as much if not more of the MVP chatter that the talking heads are currently devoting to Jayson Tatum. With Garland and Mobley out, Mitchell was the driving force behind one of the best lineups in the league. The five-man group of Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Dean Wade and Isaac Okoro has posted a 19.6 net rating in 232 minutes so far this season—second best of any lineups with at least 200 minutes played. The offensive rating of that group (121.6) is better than Boston’s vaunted starting five, despite—in theory—having much less individual talent.
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports
So what’s the hold up with more people taking the Cavs seriously? They have an MVP-caliber star in Mitchell. A legitimate defensive anchor in Allen. Strus is a role player with deep playoff experience. Wade and Okoro have shown improvement from last season. Garland and Mobley are obviously very talented. This is seemingly a recipe for success!
The biggest issue is the past. Cleveland was so thoroughly dominated by the Knicks in last year’s first round that the stench has lingered through now. Nobody wants to be fooled by the Cavs again. Can they score when it counts? Do Mobley and Allen fit together? How concerned should we be that the real starting five—Mitchell, Garland, Strus, Mobley and Allen—has only a 1.7 net rating in 265 minutes together?
I think it’s time to throw that caution to the wind. This is not the same Cleveland team. It’s deeper, thanks to additions like Strus and Georges Niang. And the time spent without Garland and Mobley could prove to be very valuable experience, not only for the players who thrived without them, but for the coaching staff to get a different look at the team. The Cavs now have an optionality that last season’s team lacked, and that can pay big dividends in the postseason.
Of course, it remains to be seen when push comes to shove if J.B. Bickerstaff will be willing to break up his star players in high-stakes moments based on regular-season lineup data. But that’s not a good enough reason to doubt a team that’s been every bit as good if not outright better than those widely considered to be championship material. For anyone talking about title contenders, the Cavs belong in the conversation.
