The Chinese government is probably the biggest winner from Joe Biden’s decision to pull out of his trip to Australia and Papua New Guinea, forcing the cancellation of the Quad summit in Sydney.
Chinese state media outlets won’t need to muster much creative energy to weave together some of Beijing’s preferred narratives: that the US is racked by increasingly severe domestic upheaval and is an unreliable partner, quick to leave allies high and dry.
To make matters worse for the US’s standing in the region, Biden’s planned visit to PNG on Monday had been trumpeted as a clear statement of intent about his commitment to the Pacific amid growing competition for influence with China.
“We even declared a national public holiday for Biden’s historic visit only to be thrown under the bus by the US,” wrote Martyn Namorong, a PNG blogger and political activist. “The US keeps shooting itself in the foot as it stumbles to maintain its grip in the region. China doesn’t have to deal with such internal squabbling.”
Veteran US diplomats say the Australian and PNG governments will be particularly disappointed by Biden’s decision to head home after this weekend’s G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, to focus on resolving the high-stakes political standoff over the debt ceiling.
“It will be seen in the region as a self-inflicted wound caused by political polarisation in Washington that does not reflect well on America’s reliability as a partner,” said Daniel Russel, a former US assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs who is now at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
For more than a week, there had been speculation Biden might curtail his planned travel to the region to negotiate a deal with Republicans in Congress to prevent the US defaulting on its debt. Such an outcome would see millions of workers go unpaid in the US, but would also have severe flow-on consequences for the global economy.
But officials involved in the planning of the Quad summit – bringing together the leaders of the US, Japan, India and Australia – insisted on Friday that it was “full steam ahead”. They were certainly proceeding on the basis the US president would attend the event at the Sydney Opera House on 24 May with a very large entourage.
Things looked even more secure on Tuesday, when the Australian government announced – in close coordination with the US – that Biden would arrive in Canberra the day before the Quad summit to deliver an address to a joint session of parliament. Separately, photographs were published in the media showing Marine One, the US president’s helicopter, had arrived in Sydney ready for use during the Australian leg of his travel.
“I am pleased that President Biden is able to take up my invitation to address parliament,” the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said in a statement issued on Tuesday night. He also declared the Quad summit would be “the largest, most significant gathering in Australia since we hosted the G20 a decade ago”.
But by about 4.30am on Wednesday, Albanese’s phone had started ringing as officials lined up a call from the president. The pair spoke before 6am and Biden “apologised that he would now have to postpone this visit because of the unfolding difficulties he is facing in his negotiations with the US Congress”, Albanese said.
After a few hours of further discussions about whether to proceed with the Sydney summit but with the US sending someone else in Biden’s place, Albanese announced the whole thing was off. Albanese – who was already planning to go to the G7 summit in Hiroshima as an invitee of the Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida – said the four Quad leaders would be “attempting to get together over that period of time”.
Everyone involved will publicly express understanding for Biden’s political difficulties – Albanese, for one, said he was “absolutely certain” that “the president certainly wishes that this wasn’t happening” – but the cancellation is undoubtedly a blow to the Australian hosts. Officials had spent months extensively planning the huge logistical and security operation; last October’s budget set aside $23m for the costs of hosting the summit.
It’s too soon to leap to any longer-term conclusions about the future of the Quad, previously a low-key channel for coordination among Japan, India, Australia and the US that has been elevated in status to leader-level talks in the past couple of years.
But given the Quad was meant, in part, to send a signal of unity of purpose at a time when an increasingly powerful China was challenging regional norms, that project appears to have suffered a temporary setback.
