Yesterday was a busy day for us. While the head of UK in a Changing Europe was doing his best rabbit-in-the-headlights impression on the Question Time Brexit special, researchers back at the office were ploughing through the data from a recent survey of leave voters that the organisation carried out with Public First. Together, the hard data and the programme provide a clear picture of where leave voters are, seven years on from the referendum.
It hardly came as a shock that the first question last night was about the impact of Brexit on the economy. In fact, our polling finds that for leave voters who think Brexit is going badly, or who have switched to backing remain since 2016, the economic impact of Brexit is a key driver of their doubts.
This was not an audience who – unlike Ben Habib, the former Brexit party MEP – were simply going to insinuate Brexit had made no difference (Habib suggesting to an audience member that his business was not facing disruption because of Brexit was a standout moment). Just because most leavers have not changed their minds completely doesn’t mean they think things are going well. Far from it. In our survey, 40% of leavers say the UK economy is significantly weaker after leaving the EU. However, like the audience in Clacton, they realise it is complex, and that Covid and the war in Ukraine have had their part to play.
The interesting stuff happened thereafter. The studio audience wanted to know whether politicians have made the most of the UK’s newfound independence. Both leavers on the panel – Habib and Tory MP John Redwood – answered negatively. They are in touch with leave voters in this sense at least – 70% of leavers think there is a way Brexit could benefit the economy, but we have yet to take advantage of it.
The audience was clear about the importance of reclaiming the UK’s “independence”. The angry reaction to Alastair Campbell’s claim that “you were lied to” was fascinating in that regard. And the studio audience was pretty representative. When asked their main reason for voting for Brexit in our survey, 68% of leavers cited “having more control over our laws”, and 67% said “stopping EU officials having control over the UK”.
What was equally clear was the anger among the Question Time audience about the scale of immigration, although the official leave campaign actually committed to controlling immigration, not reducing it. But leavers in the main aren’t interested in those kinds of semantics. A majority (68%) think that the current system is not strict enough, and allows too many people to immigrate to the UK.
Which brings us to how we have deployed our sovereignty. One of the most interesting comments last night came from an audience member who was sick of being told she had been lied to. A majority of leavers feel they had all the information they needed to make a decision in 2016. And a plurality think that they had sufficient information from both sides of the referendum campaign to make an informed decision. What they resent is the fact that political leaders have not capitalised on the sovereignty for which they voted; 39% of them think politicians have not even tried to make Brexit work.
Yet while they are frustrated, leavers did not expect instant results. A quarter of them think not enough time has passed to judge whether Brexit has gone well or badly; 61% think Brexit will turn out well or very well in the future. There was a sense among those in the audience last night that they did not expect to wake up on 24 June 2016 in a whole different Britain. Rather, Brexit is an ongoing process that, while politicians have messed it up to date, still holds the promise of greater successes to come.
So, it should come as no surprise that many – including most of those in Clacton last night – still back the decision they made in 2016. In our survey, 72% of 2016 leave voters, knowing what they do now, would still vote as they did. There was much groaning and eye-rolling at Campbell’s support to rejoin the EU. For most leavers, even those who are “Bregretful”, another referendum is not the answer.
Question Time faced much criticism for deciding to go with an audience of only leavers last night. That the discussion provided so much food for thought indicates, to us at least, that it was probably a good call.
Anand Menon is director of The UK in a Changing Europe. Sophie Stowers is a researcher at The UK in a Changing Europe
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