
Inflation led to the highest cost-of-living adjustment in 40 years for Social Security beneficiaries this year, with checks increasing 8.7%. But with inflation cooling, the COLA could be less than half of that next year.
Though it's still too soon to know exactly what the 2024 adjustment will be—it is based on inflation numbers from July, August, and September of the preceding year and announced in October—current projections put it around 3.1%. But it could be even less generous than that, says Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at the Senior Citizens League.