If you hate getting wet, it brings me extreme pleasure to announce the Binches of Meterology (BoM) reckon the third consecutive La Niña may actually be fucking off in early 2023. If the thought of getting wet makes you go hog wild, I don’t think this article is for you. Run along now. Toodle-oo.
Considering we’re in late October, I know “early 2023” is still a wee while away. The prospect of a sopping wet Christmas is also enough to flatten anyone’s pavlova. But if we want to be glass half full optimists, at least there’s kinda an end in sight. Let’s stay positive, people!
The BoM shared its wisdom in a climate driver update released on Tuesday. It forecasted a return of the neutral phase of the single climate phenomenon that La Niña falls in. It’s called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
“Quite often an El Niño will transition [directly] into a La Niña, but La Niñas don’t typically transition straight into El Niño.
“Looking at the statistics of past events, it does suggest that we would more likely have a neutral event next year.”
“Models indicate that the negative IOD is likely to persist into late spring before rapidly decaying,” the BoM said.
“When La Niña and negative IOD conditions combine, the likelihood of above average rainfall over Australia is further increased, particularly for the eastern half of the continent.”
