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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) crashed on April 20 after its BlueBird 7 satellite failed to reach its intended operational altitude following a launch on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket.
Although the satellite separated and powered on, it was placed in an off-nominal orbit too low to sustain operations, forcing a planned de-orbit, the company confirmed in a press release today.
The subsequent selloff pushed ASTS decisively below its 50-day moving average (MA), signaling that the bearish momentum may sustain in the near term.
Versus its year-to-date high, AST SpaceMobile stock is now down more than 35%.
What It Really Means for AST SpaceMobile Stock
The NG3 mission failure is significantly bearish for ASTS stock because it exposes execution risks inherent in the company’s reliance on third-party launch providers.
In its press release, the Midland-headquartered firm reassured investors that the satellite cost is covered by insurance, but the real damage is actually to the deployment timeline.
AST SpaceMobile has committed to launching 45 satellites by the end of this year to provide global cellular broadband.
However, losing a flagship satellite on Blue Origin’s New Glenn raises concerns about future launch reliability and potential scheduling bottlenecks.
Investors now fear that ASTS could take longer than previously estimated to begin generating real revenue.
ASTS Shares Remain ‘Underperform’ Rated at Scotiabank
The Blue Origin failure this morning made Scotiabank experts, led by Andres Coello, maintain their “Underperform” rating on AST SpaceMobile shares.
According to Coello, an explosion at a Blue Origin facility earlier this month should have signaled a delay, adding the mission failure underscores “structural concerns” regarding the rush to close the gap with SpaceX.
While insurance mitigates the immediate financial loss, the operational setback and a 490x sales multiple make buying the dip incredibly risky for disciplined investors, the analyst added.
His $41 price target signals potential downside of nearly 45% from here.
What’s the Consensus Rating on AST SpaceMobile?
Other Wall Street analysts, however, seem to disagree with Coello on ASTS shares.
While the consensus rating on AST SpaceMobile sits at a “Hold," the mean price target of about $92 signals potential upside of roughly 20% from here.
