How many people died in India as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic? This question has become the subject of a heated argument after the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated India’s pandemic excess deaths at around 4.7 million. The Government of India issued a strongly worded response, and media houses and editors waded in. It is almost as though life and death themselves are now matters of opinion.
The background
Here are some basic observations. First, we will never know precisely how many excess deaths occurred in India during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Second, all mortality studies, including the latest from WHO, involve choices about what data to include, how to fill gaps, and how to deal with uncertainty; there is always room for debate and disagreement about these choices. Third, uncertainty does not mean total ignorance: even the most optimistic reading of the data puts excess deaths at six or seven times official COVID-19 deaths.
