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Darin Newsom

The Birds and the Bees of US Stock Index Seasonal Patterns

  • Like bees and turkeys, some folks in the financial market industry have no memory of the day (week, month, etc.) before, not to mention normal seasonal patterns.
  • Seasonally, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average tend to trend down during September before turning up through the end of the year.
  • For those interested in the 2024 US Presidential Election, the next two months will be key, based on one research study.

Even though I’m not listening, I can hear it now, the Chicken Littles of financial media all squawking “The sky is falling!” in relation to Tuesday morning’s selloff in US stock indexes. A look at this morning’s market shows the Nasdaq is down 338 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 is off 77 points (1.4%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 482 points (1.2%). I find it interesting this sector of the financial industry, the Chicken Littles, also share with turkeys and bees the inability to remember the day (week, month, etc.) before, let alone a market’s normal seasonal pattern. I call this the Birds and the Bees Blindness[i]. It’s also interesting to note Asian stock markets closed lower across the board overnight through early Tuesday morning while European markets were lower late in Tuesday’s session[ii]. With that flock of birds covered, let’s take a look at the seasonal patterns for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. 

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