No matter how great any team is, every team has its share of questions to answer when a new season begins. The 1968 Baltimore Colts looked unbeatable until they met the New York Jets in Super Bowl III, and Jets running back Matt Snell exploited the weak right side of Baltimore’s defensive front over and over on the way to one of the greatest upsets in sports history. The 2007 New England Patriots were unbeatable until they lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII because their interior offensive line couldn’t handle the Giants’ NASCAR pressure packages.
No matter how great your team is, one little thing can turn everything upside down.
Conversely, teams that may look hopeless are actually building credibly to the future, and that will show up on the field more than anybody might think. And then there are the NFL’s stragglers — the teams for whom there is little present hope, and the primary question is, “How do we transcend our multiple weaknesses to be at least competitive?”
Each of the NFL’s 32 teams have questions to answer coming into the 2022 season, which of course is right around the corner. So here, for your consideration, are the most pressing questions every NFL team will — and must — answer in the new season.
Arizona Cardinals: Will Kliff Kingsbury put his offense in motion?
Since he became the Cardinals’ head coach in 2019, Kliff Kingsbury has been the NFL’s foremost purveyor of 10 personnel — one running back, four receivers, and no tight ends. That’s what Kingsbury preferred in his Air Raid college days, and that’s what he wants now. Last season, the Cardinals ran 10 personnel (four receivers, one back, no tight ends) on 14% of their offensive plays, and they ranked fourth in Sports Info Solutions’ Positive Play Rate out of that personnel grouping.
With veterans Zach Ertz and Maxx Williams, and second-round rookie Trey McBride out of Colorado state at tight end, you can expect Kingsbury to call more 12 personnel (two tight ends, two receivers, and one back) more often. The Cardinals ran 12 personnel 22% of the time, and they ranked 19th in PPR when they did.
The one thing we’re waiting for the coach to figure out, though, is now much more efficient his offense is with pre-snap motion. Kingsbury has never used it in Arizona, and that’s odd, because his offenses have always been better with it. In 2019, Arizona ranked 27th in snaps with motion, and third in PPR. In 2020, they ranked dead last in motion rate, and 11th in PPR. And last season, they ranked 29th in motion rate, and fourth in PPR.
Pre-snap motion generally gives quarterbacks coverage indicators, and in the right hands, it can be used to define and exploit defensive matchups. If the Cardinals are so concerned about Kyler Murray’s study habits, why wouldn’t they give him as many answers to the test as possible?
Atlanta Falcons: How quickly can Desmond Ridder become the guy?
The Falcons head into the 2022 season without Matt Ryan as their quarterback — the first time that’s been the case since the disastrous Bobby Petrino season of 2007. In moving on from the 2008 first-round pick, Atlanta looked to free up a whole lot of cap space, and redefine the position. They did so in the short term with middle-tier decisions: Signing veteran Marcus Mariota to a two-year, $18.75 million contract with $6.75 million guaranteed, and selecting Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder with the 74th overall pick in the third round.
Mariota has proven over time to be a decent starter in a run-defined, boot- and play-action heavy offense, which is what head coach and offensive shot-caller Arthur Smith has historically preferred. But the team also wants to see if they’ve nabbed their next franchise quarterback with a mid-round pick, so all eyes were on Ridder this preseason. The rookie completed 34 of 56 passes for 431 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 87.7.
Ridder’s two interceptions came against the Jaguars in the final week of the preseason in an unusual vapor-lock space of time.
Daniel Thomas gets an int on Ridder.. first play of the game pic.twitter.com/d4LpRjIlKM
— Laurie Fitzpatrick (@LaurieFitzptrck) August 27, 2022
ooof..
Ridder just threw it up to end the half pic.twitter.com/N69TvjHaEN— Laurie Fitzpatrick (@LaurieFitzptrck) August 27, 2022
Rookie yips can be expected. What you have to like is how Ridder recovered from those mistakes. Ridder had some big-time throws in the second half, and none were more impressive than this deep cross-body fade ball from his own three-yard line to receiver Frank Darby.
If Ridder was going to fold up after those first-half mistakes, we would have seen it. Instead, he re-set, completing seven of 10 passes for 144 yards in the second half.
“First play of the game, we had one guy in front go the wrong way, and he let one mistake become two, trying to play hero ball.,” Smith said of Ridder after the 28-12 Falcons win. “You can live to the next down. So, he understood that. He didn’t pout. Comes out the next try, and I thought he was very solid. Then we didn’t have — we lost a couple of situational things on third down or didn’t handle overcoming a backed up on a penalty. Then the last one, I wanted to launch one before the half, he had to move in the pocket. He had to reset because I thought we had a chance. End of the half, who cares?
“There’s a lot of guys, they care more about social media, stats, whatever it is, and Desmond is a real football player. You got to come out and keep swinging and keep things in perspective.”
Ridder was able to do that at a high level for a rookie, and we’ll see how much he’s able to test himself in the regular season
Baltimore Ravens: Can Lamar Jackson beat the blitz?
Lamar Jackson regressed as a pocket passer in 2021 after some serious improvement in that regard in 2020, but that wasn’t all his fault — injuries along Baltimore’s offensive line (especially to left tackle Ronnie Stanley) and the departure via trade of Orlando Brown Jr. meant that Jackson didn’t have the pockets he did the year before. Now, Stanley appears to be full-go for Week 1, the addition of Morgan Moses at right tackle should help, and the first-round pick of Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum will certainly solidify things up the middle.
This is all good news for Jackson, because Baltimore’s opponents took advantage of those line weaknesses in 2021 by blitzing him at a ridiculous rate. Per Football Outsiders, no starting quarterback faced blitzes at a higher rate than Jackson’s 33%. He was good for 7.6 yards per play and a 35.5% DVOA with four pass-rushers. That dropped to 5.7 yards per play and a -21.9% DVOA against five pass-rushers, and 3.2 yards per play with a -67.5% DVOA against six or more.
Jackson was worse against the blitz than he was against four pass-rushers in 2019 and 2020, but not anywhere near this schism. Jackson’s own processing speed at times didn’t help, and the best advice we can give him when defenses throw the kitchen sink at him is to get the ball out quickly, and make those defenses pay after the catch.
Buffalo Bills: Will Tre'Davious White come back at full strength?
White is the Bills’ best cornerback, and one of the best at his position in the NFL, so when he was lost for the rest of the season to a torn ACL in Week 12, it did affect Buffalo’s championship plans to a degree. That defense still finished first in DVOA and first against the pass, due in large part to White’s understudies stepping up as much as they could, and the superior efforts of safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.
Still, White’s absence hurt. From Week 1 through Week 11, the Bills’ cornerbacks allowed 70 catches on 140 targets for four touchdowns, five interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 62.2. Without White from Week 12 through the divisional round loss to the Chiefs,. Buffalo’s cornerbacks gave up 29 catches on 65 targets for two touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 73.6.
Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson played well last season, and the Bills took hyper-aggressive cornerback Kaiir Elam in the first round of the 2022 draft. Elam looked great in the preseason, but with White on the PUP list and out for at least the first four weeks of the 2022 season, that cornerback group will be put to the test once again. Buffalo faces the Rams in the regular-season opener on Thursday, September 8, then they get the Titans, Dolphins, and Ravens after that. The Bills will really hope White is back for the divisional round rematch with the Chiefs in Week 6. If not, or if White shows any rust with his recovery… well, things could get interesting in the AFC East.
Carolina Panthers: How dangerous can Baker Mayfield be?
There have been three Baker Mayfields over the last three seasons. There was the healthy Mayfield in 2020 who performed at a top level for the Browns with his best season since Cleveland took him first overall in the 2018 draft. Then, there was the 2021 Mayfield, who regressed mightily — primarily because his arm was hanging by a thread, and he couldn’t stay out of the injury bin. The efforts of head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt didn’t help — they kept talking about opening the passing game to fit what worked best for Mayfield, but it was too little, too late in 2021.
Now, there is the third Mayfield — the Panthers’ starting quarterback after a trade from the Browns, and a “battle” with Sam Darnold. Mayfield certainly looked like the 2020 version of himself in the 2022 preseason with his mobility, arm talent, and ability to handle the offense, and this 19-yard touchdown to Shi Smith against the Bills was how you want it executed once it’s drawn up.
Crafty vet move by Shi Smith, feeling the void once Mayfield gets on the move. The over route by Tremble draws some attn away—nice savvy by Baker too.
— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) August 27, 2022
Mayfield has some estimable targets in Smith, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall, former Browns teammate Rashard Higgins, and Tommy Tremble. The Panthers’ offensive line looks like a major upgrade over last year’s disaster, and if Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy, Mayfield could be commanding what looks like a fully-functional offense.
How dangerous can any quarterback actually be with Matt Rhule running things, and Ben McAdoo calling the offense? We’re about to find out.
Chicago Bears: How far can Justin Fields progress with so little help?
Justin Fields’ rookie year was a disaster, and very little of it was his fault. Selected by the Bears with the 11th overall pick in the 2021 draft out of Ohio State, Fields was unfortunately paired with a head coach and “offensive genius” in Matt Nagy who went out of his way to dump any part of the playbook that would play to Fields’ strengths. It was an embarrassment, and one hopes that the new regime, led by head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy (Eberflus is a defensive coach) will produce more compelling returns.
There are schematic concepts that will help, as outlined above. But who is Fields throwing to, and who will protect him? Chicago’s receiver depth chart right now: Darnell Mooney, Velus Jones, Equanimeous St. Brown, Byron Pringle, Dante Pettis. Tajae Sharpe, N’Keal Harry, and David Moore are all injured, and tight end Cole Kmet might be Fields’ best receiver, which gives him a dime-store version of the Baltimore Ravens’ receiver issues. Not great.
What is also not great is Chicago’s offensive line. The Bears recently took a flier on former Raiders first-round pick Alex Leatherwood, who allowed more pressures than any other offensive lineman in 2021, and doubled down by allowing more pressures than any other offensive lineman in the 2022 preseason. Former left tackle Jason Peters is now a free agent, new projected left tackle Riley Reiff didn’t make the cut when the Bengals re-did their own offensive line, and nobody on the interior of that offensive line is going to make you forget Joel Bitonio or Quenton Nelson.
It is clearly a from-the-studs rebuild in the Windy City, and as such, Fields will have to hang on until things get better. At least the coaching will be just that.
Cincinnati Bengals: Did they do enough to fix the offensive line?
Speaking of Cincinnati’s offensive line… it is appropriate that the Bengals’ 2021 season, as great at is was, ended with a quarterback pressure, and a failed offensive play.
Not that failed offensive plays were the hallmark of that season — when you have Joe Burrow, and Joe Burrow’s weapons (especially Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon), you’re going to light it up. But that offensive line was a massive liability more often than not, and it speaks to Burrow’s unusual poise for such a young player that he was able to run that offense at even a functional level. Per Pro Football Focus, the line was responsible for 42 of the 70 sacks Burrow took last season; both of those numbers represented the league’s worst totals.
So, in this offseason, the Bengals went all in on their most obvious flaw. They signed former Buccaneers guard Alex Cappa, former Patriots guard Ted Karras, and former Cowboys right tackle La’el Collins. The hope is that with those three added, left tackle Jonah Williams getting better as a pass-protector (he allowed 10 sacks and 51 total pressures in 2021) and te ability to make some sense of the left guard position if Karras kicks over to center, the Bengals will have enough to get back to the Super Bowl. With Burrow and their offensive weapons, not to mention an underrated defense, they might just be right.
Cleveland Browns: Will the Deshaun Watson decision blow up the entire franchise?
We all know that with the trade for Deshaun Watson, and the five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract they gave Watson after submitting all kinds of draft capital for him in the first place, the Cleveland Browns are taking a major risk that could bite this quarterback-unlucky franchise right in the posterior. Given the nature of Watson’s alleged transgressions, some would say that it’s karma if it goes the wrong way. Watson’s supposed remorse after the NFL settled on an 11-game suspension for the 2022 season didn’t last very long.
Onto the football side. The Browns deemed Baker Mayfield fungible after dealing for Watson, trading him to the Panthers for a bag of Big League Chew and a bucket of K-balls. So, Jacoby Brissett will be the Browns’ starting quarterback until Watson is allowed to return. When Watson is allowed to return, how will he look after so much time off? He didn’t play at all for the Texans in 2021 as the investigation process into multiple sexual assault accusations happened, and in the 2022 preseason… well, to say that Watson looked rusty would be to damn him with faint praise. He completed one of five passes against the Jaguars in his only exhibition game, and he had no connection whatsoever with his receivers.
It would be a stretch to say that the Watson trade and contract were worth it for the Browns even if Watson is able to retain all of the skills that made him so valuable in the first place. Anything less than that on the field, and Watson’s off-field history will appear closer and closer in the rear-view mirror — and the Browns will find themselves in a purgatory of their own creation.
Dallas Cowboys: Can Jason Peters replace Tyron Smith?
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith hasn’t played a full season since 2015, and the eight-time Pro Bowler and two-time First-Team All-Pro will miss most of the 2022 season with knee and hamstring injuries.
I’ve already gone into how much of a problem this is for Dallas’ offense. You just don’t replace Tyron Smith with some dude.
Tyler Smith, who the Cowboys took with the 24th pick in the 2022 draft out of Tulsa, was thought for a second or two to be the best option.
Jerry Jones on Cowboys rookie LT Tyler Smith: "Do I wish we had Tyron? Yes. Will we get Tyron back? Likely. (Tyler) will come in & get a Harvard doctor’s degree in playing LT between now & then. Will we pay some price for it? Yes. Can we win with paying a price? I think so, yes."
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) September 2, 2022
We have already watched Smith’s college tape, and based on this play against Cincinnati (and many other plays), we have our doubts. Smith is a nice run-mauler, but he’s got a way to go as a left tackle dealing with NFL pressure. We know this, because he had a way to go as a left tackle dealing with NCAA pressure.
The Cowboys may feel the same way — Smith never played a snap at left tackle in the preseason (left guard all the way), and second-year fourth-round pick Josh Ball (pay attention to the off-field issues there) was the team’s primary left tackle.
So, what do you do if you have a guy so raw at left tackle, and you didn’t play him there in the preseason, and your franchise left tackle is out?
You sign 17-year NFL veteran Jason Peters.
Peters would be a better option than Smith or Ball in the short term — he’s still a plus run-blocker, and he’s decent enough as a pass-protector when he’s healthy. But this offense will not be the same without Tyron Smith. That’s how it’s been, and that’s how it will be. Peters was just the best available option.
Denver Broncos: Were they only a quarterback away?
In 2020, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady, and at the end of that season, they won the Super Bowl. Turns out, they were only a quarterback away.
In 2021, the Los Angeles Rams traded for Matthew Stafford, and at the end of that season, they won the Super Bowl. Turns out, they were only a quarterback away.
In 2022, the Denver Broncos traded for Russell Wilson, and at the end of the season… well, that’s to be determined, of course.
But it’s easy enough to argue that the Broncos made the right move here, and they’re not that far away. This been perhaps the NFL’s worst team when it comes to quarterback acquisition and development since Peyton Manning’s retirement at the end of the 2015 season — right after the Broncos won their last Super Bowl. So, this time around, they went all in on one of the NFL’s recent successful paradigms, adding an established top-tier quarterback to a roster that’s already got more than enough to be a threat.
The offense is solid to great, especially with second-year man Javonte Williams in the backfield. The offensive line might be the best Wilson’s ever played behind, though that’s a very low bar after what he had to deal with in Seattle. The defense is stacked in the secondary (cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons are both top players, and Simmons might be the NFL’s best safety), and good enough everywhere else.
The 2021 Broncos finished with a 7-10 record. They ranked 11th in Offensive DVOA with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock as their quarterbacks. The Seahawks finished fifth in offensive DVOA despite the usually weird line play, an offense that didn’t know what it was half the time, and Wilson’s own finger injury.
We’re not guaranteeing a Super Bowl win for the Broncos here, but we’re about to see why the Wilson trade made all the sense in the world — at least from Denver’s side. If you want to know where it lands on the Seattle side… well, scroll down.
Detroit Lions: How far can you go with Jared Goff?
In their efforts to “Restore the Roar” after missing the playoffs every year since 2016, the Lions are investing in highly quotable butt-kicking head coach Dan Campbell, his array of former players as assistant coaches, a surprisingly good offensive line, a defense that is coming back together after former head coach Matt Patricia picked it apart, and the efforts of quarterback Jared Goff.
The last item there comes with a severe qualifier we all know. Goff, both with the Lions and in his time with the Rams, has been a scheme-dependent quarterback with a low ceiling, and he must adhere to the playbook, or things tend to veer out of control. The things that made him a plus-level quarterback under Sean McVay, like play-action and pre-snap motion? He’s regressed with them (and with most everything else) over the last few seasons. In 2021, he completed 67.2% of his passes for 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Not to say that Goff is hopeless — occasionally, he’ll uncork one like this banger of a throw to receiver Josh Reynolds in Week 15. Touch, timing, velocity — this 39-yard touchdown pass has it all.
But there are still too many times when Goff anticipates safety movement, guesses wrong, and gives gifts to the opponent. Here’s one such example against the Broncos in Week 14.
When the Lions got Goff in the Matthew Stafford trade, they also inherited Goff’s over-inflated contract. 2023 marks the first year of that contract which allows the team to release Goff with a negligible financial penalty. So, it’s not extreme to say that Goff is playing for his contract — and perhaps his NFL career as a starting quarterback — in 2022.
Green Bay Packers: Who is Aaron Rodgers throwing to?
Aaron Rodgers was complaining about his receiver depth in 2021 when he had Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Now, he has neither of those targets, so he may have a point. Adams is now with the Raiders, and Valdes-Scantling is with the Chiefs, and perhaps the best pure passer in NFL history, in his 18th NFL season, is left with *checks notes*
*checks again*
Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Amari Rodgers… some decent guys, but nobody anywhere near Adams, perhaps the best receiver in the NFL today. Doubs, the fourth-round rookie from Nevada, showed a lot in the preseason, but that’s the preseason.
Where the Packers are still stacked is in the backfield — they have perhaps the NFL’s best running back duo in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Jones also ranked second on the team with 52 receptions behind Adams’ 123, and Dillon ranked fourth behind Lazard’s 40 with 34. Perhaps it’s Doubs, or fellow rookie Watson, who steps up in this scenario, but in the short term, Rodgers may have to scramble — both figuratively and literally — more than at any other time in his career.
Houston Texans: Is this team a lot better than people think?
During his time as the Texans’ head coach from 2014 through the first four games of the 2020 season, Bill O’Brien did a decent job of winning games for a while, and an absolutely awful job of personnel management when he was put in charge of things. Houston’s 2021 draft was affected to a great degree by O’Brien’s decision to trade all kinds of draft picks for ex-Dolphins left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and the post-O’Brien regime, led by Nick Caserio, did the best they could with what they had.
What they did with two third-round picks was to select quarterback Davis Mills from Stanford, and receiver Nico Collins from Michigan. Mills looked better than anybody had a right to expect in his rookie season as Deshaun Watson didn’t play a single down, for reasons detailed in our Browns slide. Collins had some nice moments in his rookie season, and blew up in the 2022 preseason with some acrobatic catches.
In 2022, free of the O’Brien mistakes and with extra draft capital from the Watson trade, Caserio and his staff were finally able to do things unfettered. In the 2022 draft, they got LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Texas A&M offensive lineman Kenyon Green, Baylor safety Jalen Pitre, and Florida running back Dameon Pierce. All four of those players project as starters to plus starters — Pitre and Pierce in particular had incredibly strong preseasons, leaving head coach Lovie Smith open to naming them both starters for the Texans’ Week 1 game against the Colts.
Texans rookie safety Jalen Pitre locks up San Francisco's tight end from the line of scrimmage. Some guy named Kittle. Pretty good rep. You can see why Lovie Smith had no hesitation today saying that Pitre would start Week 1. pic.twitter.com/gpI1vjyIcX
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 30, 2022
There are still things to address from a roster standpoint — you don’t rebuild something so damaged overnight. But the Texans’ youth movement has made them an officially feisty team, and that’s a major improvement over what the former regime had created — and deconstructed.
Indianapolis Colts: Does Matt Ryan have one more playoff run left in him?
Matt Ryan, coming into his 15th NFL season, was at his best in 2016 under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. The Atlanta Falcons got all the way to the Super Bowl (and a 28-3 lead) largely because Shanahan got Ryan on the move in the boot-action game, and leveled defenses with passing schemes that got Ryan’s force multipliers open with specific route concepts. Ryan really hasn’t had it to that degree since, and 2022 marks his first NFL season out of Atlanta — he’s now the starting quarterback for the Colts, who have run aground since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement before the 2019 season. There was Jacoby Brissett in 2019, there was Philip Rivers at the end of his career in 2020, and there was Carson Wentz in 2021.
Ryan may not be what he was at his peak, but he’s still one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL, he can win in the pre-snap phase no matter what you throw at him, and the 2022 Colts give him the best shot to make the postseason — which he hadn’t seen with the Falcons since 2017, and the Colts haven’t since 2020.
Ryan didn’t play a lot in the 2022 preseason, but on this 17-yard pass to Michael Pittman against the Buccaneers in Week 3, we saw a bit of Ryan’s ability to still get the ball downfield in time and with consistency. This could be an ideal situation for both sides.
Moreover, Ryan has taken all of Wentz’s randomness out of the building. Decidedly.
A constant in training camp: Colts players and coaches openly bringing up how different everything feels w/ Matt Ryan running the show. Just read what Pittman had to say on it here:https://t.co/sI0lral0PW pic.twitter.com/nvCPKzWXoz
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) September 6, 2022
Jacksonville Jaguars: What can this team accomplish with actual coaching?
So far, so good. 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, bollixed in his rookie season by Meyer’s incompetence and a first-grade playbook, completed 20 of 33 passes for 228 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions this preseason in an offense far better designed to maximize his (or anybody else’s) strengths. The defensive line, with new addition (and 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker) was on point throughout the preseason, and overall, this just looked like a different team.
We’re not saying that the Jags are somehow going to win the AFC South — there’s still some rebuilding to do — but they might exceed last year’s total of three wins in the second month of the 2022 season.
Kansas City Chiefs: What is this offense going to look like?
For a team that has had an offense over the last few seasons that has been the envy of the league when at its best, the Kansas City Chiefs have certainly changed a lot of that offense around in the last two years. The offensive line, laid bare in the Chiefs’ 31-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, found itself swapped out with five entirely new starters in 2021. And in March, the team traded speed receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for a load of draft picks.
Draft capital is always good, and the line upgrades were a net positive, but it’s hard to know where the Chiefs are going with all this. They still have speed receiver Mecole Hardman, though Hardman’s chemistry with Mahomes has never been what Mahomes had with Hill. Mega-tight end Travis Kelce is still around, though his “matchup nightmare” status takes a hit with Hill out of the picture. Former Packers receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a big speed receiver who can win to all levels at times, and rookie Skyy Moore looks as advertised, but this passing game could be more about sustaining things as opposed to waiting for the big play to happen.
One thing that head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy undoubtedly spent this offseason figuring out: How to help Mahomes against two-deep coverages. Last season, Mahomes completed 215 of 332 passes against two-deep looks (Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, Cover-6, Cover-8) for 2,532 yards, 1,401 air yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a Positive Play Rate of 50.3%. Only Trevor Lawrence had more interceptions against two-deep coverage last season, and the Chiefs have not had the kind of running back that can force one of those safeties back in the box.
If Kansas City’s offense looks a bit betwixt and between for the first few games, that’s to be expected. The real question is, how explosive will it all be when big plays are needed down the stretch and in the playoffs?
Las Vegas Raiders: Who's going to protect the quarterback?
One thing the Seahawks learned, and the Raiders are now learning: When you hire Tom Cable to build your offensive line, it’s a mistake, and you’re going to pay for it years after you finally let him go, The Seahawks allowed Cable to do that from 2011-2017, and they’re still recovering from it up front. The Raiders then hired Cable, their head coach from 2008-2010, to redefine a line that didn’t have a lot of problems. From 2018-2021, Cable threw veterans out the window, overcooked unfinished prospects, and generally made a mess of things.
New head coach Josh McDaniels wasn’t going to have that dragging him around, which is why former Patriots offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo now has that same gig with the Raiders. But what does Bricillo have to work with? Not much.
Left tackle Kolton Miller, who had a rough start to his career, really turned it around last season. Other than that… well, there’s a reason former first-round tackle/guard Alex Leatherwood is now with the Bears after finding himself released in final cuts. Leatherwood led the NFL in total pressures allowed in his rookie season of 2021, and doubled down in the 2022 preseason by doing exactly the same thing. The Raiders as a team allowed the most pressures in the preseason with 51.
If you want to see how Leatherwood looked this preseason, we’ve got you covered. Bears fans, avert your eyes.
The high pressure rate this preseason happened mostly because Miller didn’t play in the preseason. Brandon Parker, who Cable took in the third round of the 2018 draft, had a hellish Hall of Fame game against the Jaguars, and is now on injured reserve. Right now, the depth chart outside of Miller is John Simpson at left guard, Andre James at center, Jermaine Eluemunor wherever the team needs him (Eluemunor was probably the team’s best offensive lineman in the preseason), and rookie Dylan Parham might see some reps as well.
Out point is, it’s all very undefined outside of Miller, and for all the talk about Las Vegas’ offensive weapons, keeping Derek Carr upright long enough to throw all those passes to Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and everybody else… well, that might take a while to kick in.
The Raiders were wise to cut the Cable, but you know how that works. Finding the ideal alternative isn’t always immediate.
Los Angeles Chargers: Can they stop the run?
One thing Chargers head coach Brandon Staley learned in his transition from his successful tenure as the Rams’ defensive coordinator is that if you’re going to throw a lot of light boxes out there with interesting safety movement, it really helps to have Aaron Donald in the middle of your defense. As there is only one Aaron Donald, Staley had no such individual last season, and he paid for it. Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, the Chargers ran light boxes (six or fewer defenders at the line or linebacker depth) on 56% of their defensive snaps, 13th-most in the league, and they ranked 31st in Positive Play Rate when they did it.
When Staley and his staff countered this notion by calling stacked boxes (more than seven defenders at the line or linebacker depth), that didn’t work so well, either. They stacked the box on 20% of their snaps, seventh-most in the NFL, and they ranked 28th in Positive Play Rate.
When you allow Texans running back Rex Burkhead to gash your defense for 149 yards and two touchdowns… yeah, that’s a problem.
This really came home to roost in the regular-season finale against the Raiders — a game that decided which team would make the postseason, and which wouldn’t. In a 35-32 Raiders overtime win, Las Vegas back Josh Jacobs blew it up for 132 yards and a touchdown, and the Chargers allowed 174 rushing yards to 190 passing yards, encapsulating their season-long struggle.
Josh Jacobs' TD gives the @Raiders the lead before halftime. #RaiderNation
📺: #LACvsLV on NBC
📱: https://t.co/ApuDpKzsOv pic.twitter.com/CBpmckKX9W— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2022
The trade for end Khalil Mack should help, as Mack is still a plus run defender off the edge. DI Sebastian Joseph-Day, who played under Staley with the Rams, is a decent reinforcement with 85 stops over three seasons. The Chargers also took UCLA run-stopper Otito Ogbonnia in the fifth round, but at this point, there isn’t that tentpole guy who forces double-teams through the interior. Which means that Staley’s crew will have to get it done with the collective.
As long as they get it done. If they don’t, it could be another very long offseason.
Los Angeles Rams: Are they too light at cornerback behind Jalen Ramsey?
We’ll set aside for now the fact that Matthew Stafford is dealing with “Thrower’s Elbow,” because we don’t yet know if it’s a long-term issue. If it is, that’s a different discussion, and the defending Super Bowl champs are in all kinds of trouble. Assuming that Stafford is full-go, we turn our attention to the defense — specially the cornerback group. Last season, it was Jalen Ramsey and the grievously underrated Darious Williams outside, and the similarly grievously underrated David Long Jr. inside. And that worked very well. Ransey and Long are still there, but losing Williams to the Jaguars in free agency could hurt.
The Rams were aggressive in the draft in this regard (well, with their secondary overall), selecting South Carolina State cornerback Decobie Durant in the fourth round, UCLA safety Quentin Lake and Georgia cornerback Derion Kendrick in the sixth round, and Kansas State safety Russ Yeast in the seventh round. They also brought back Troy Hill, who played for the Rams from 2016-2020 before signing a one-year deal with the Browns. Hill can be good in man coverage, and his aggressive play demeanor fits defensive coordinator Raheem Morris’ preferences, but Hill had a down year in Cleveland, allowing three touchdowns with no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 125.7.
The outside spot opposite Ramsey is a key question for the Rams, who are now trying to become the first team since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots to “run it back.” Second-year man Robert Rochell is one name to watch — he had a solid rookie season, and he didn’t allow a single catch on six targets this preseason. Rochell is a quick closer to the ball.
Miami Dolphins: Can Tua Tagovailoa define himself... or has he already?
There are a handful of NFL quarterbacks who find themselves in excuse-proof situations coming into the new season. You’ll find most of them somewhere on this list. Tua Tagovailoa is certainly one of them. The fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft comes into his first NFL season with some serious improvements. Left tackle Terron Armstead can help an offensive line that allowed more pressures (235) than any other. Receivers Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson Jr. add to a receiver group that already included dynamic second-year man Jaylen Waddle.
And new head coach Mike McDaniel should be able to superimpose what he learned from Kyle Shanahan going back to 2014 with the Browns, Falcons, and 49ers. McDaniel’s history as a run game coach in one of the more complex and effective set of rushing concepts in the NFL adds more colors in Tagovailoa’s palate.
So now, it’s up to Tagovailoa to take all those interesting ingredients and make the gourmet dinner, or not. Even Hill, who has expressed all kinds of confidence in Tagovailoa, also understands that it’s his new quarterback’s time to show, or go.
“You know, in the NFL they only give you like two or three years to be a successful quarterback, especially if you’re a first-round draft pick,” Hill recently said on his own podcast. “And if you don’t succeed after those years, then it’s kick rocks, man. So, basically, they’re going to put Tua into that. So this is basically his last year, man, just to show people what he’s got.”
One thing that was obviously missing from Miami’s passing game under co-offensive coordinators George Godsey and Eric Studesville was a commitment to the deep ball. McDaniel has expressed an interest in turning that up more often, and as we saw on this 51-yard pass against the Eagles in the preseason, you’re making that commitment when you trade for Hill, and sign him to a new contract.
With all this around him, Tua Tagovailoa has all the road ahead, and the time for training wheels is over.
Minnesota Vikings: Can a sure-fire offense transcend so many defensive questions?
The 2022 Vikings should be just fine on offense. They have a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell, who, like every new offensive-minded head coach in the NFL, is from one of two schools: Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan. O’Connell was the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021, so he hits the McVay notes, and he’s vowed to make Minnesota’s offense more wide-open.
He has a quarterback in Kick Cousins who will occasionally go YOLO, but was also one of the NFL’s best deep passers last season. Justin Jefferson is on a very short list of the best receivers in the game, Dalvin Cook is a top-five running back in this league, and there’s enough depth for this offense to be impressive in 2022.
With all that, the 2021 Vikings finished with an 8-9 record, missing the playoffs for the second straight year. And for the second straight year, it was the defense that kept the franchise from advancing any further.
Can the Vikings do better in 2022 under new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell and assistant head coach Mike Pettine? Looking at the roster gives one pause. Edge-rushers Danielle Hunter and new addition Za’Darius Smith can be dynamic when healthy, but that was an issue for both of them last season. Hunter missed the entire 2020 season with a neck injury, and played just seven games in 2021 before a turn pectoral muscle ended his season. Smith managed just 18 snaps in 2021 before back issues took him out.
Eric Kendricks is still a fine linebacker, safety Harrison Smith can still get it done, and first-round safety Lewis Cine from Georgia is a total hammerhead who will terrify receivers over the middle. The cornerback group? Well, we have questions. Patrick Peterson is a future Hall-of-Famer, but he’s also 32 years old, and while he wasn’t terrible in coverage last season, he isn’t prime Peterson anymore. Second-round cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. from Clemson has a decent preseason, and hopefully the Vikings can build on young secondary talent better than they did late in the Mike Zimmer era.
It’s a defense in transition, and while the window for the Vikings’ offense is wide open right now, O’Connell and his people will obviously hope that that defense can work through its issues before that window starts to slam shut.
New England Patriots: When will Bill Belichick turn this car around?
We have learned over the last few decades to avoid doubting Bill Belichick too much, even when he does something that rows decidedly against type. When Belichick brought prodigal sons Matt Patricia and Joe Judge back to the fold and put them in charge of his offense to replace Josh McDaniels (now the Raiders’ head coach), there were raised eyebrows everywhere — not only because of the relative lack of experience on that side of the ball, but also because Patricia and Judge were remembered most recently for their disastrous turns as the head coaches for the Lions and Giants, respectively.
Based on the results from the 2022 preseason, this may be one time Belichick got a little too cute. It’s not just that New England’s offense was awful — they ranked 29th in EPA per play and 31st in scoring drive percentage — it’s that the offense just looked awful. As in, what-are-we-doing-here awful.
No bueno spacing from the New England offense.
It's hard to play QB with spacing like this.
🔵 🔵🔵🔵 🔵
Full video available for #TheQBSchool Patreon Community.
Join: https://t.co/l0CJd0icXb pic.twitter.com/hDq3fASqQM— The QB School (@theqbschool) September 2, 2022
And we have absolutely no idea what Mac Jones was thinking when he threw this interception into quintuple coverage against the Raiders this preseason.
Patricia and Judge are changing everything from route concepts (with receivers who struggle to separate) to blocking and protection schemes (allegedly more wide zone after years of dominating in gap stuff), to boot-action concepts (for a quarterback in Jones who isn’t mobile enough to do that), and who’s to say they’re qualified to do any of it?
In a recent interview with Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald, legendary former Patriots offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia said that eventually, Belichick would throw things back to normal if this didn’t work as the regular season progressed, but even if that’s the case, how long will it take everyone to get back on the first page after heading however far down the wrong path.
New Orleans Saints: How far can Jameis Winston take this team?
In the first half of the 2021 season, the Saints ranked 13th in Passing DVOA, and 18th in Offensive DVOA. In the second half of the 2021 season, the Saints ranked 26th in Passing DVOA, and 28th in Offensive DVOA.
The difference? Jameis Winston was injured in the second half of the season. When Winston, who signed one-year deals with New Orleans in 2020 and 2021 after the Buccaneers replaced him with some guy named Tom Brady, took the field last season, he looked not at all like the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season, which he did in 2019. He finished his abbreviated season with 95 completions in 161 attempts for 1,170 yards, 14 touchdowns, and three interceptions. That’s how far he got before suffering a torn ACL in Week 8 against his former team.
Winston recovered from that, and a foot injury in the preseason, to complete four of four passes for 59 yards in the preseason finale against the Chargers. Here again, Winston looked like a new quarterback — far less random in his decision-making, willing to take a profit when breaking the bank won’t work, and able to find openings in coverage as you’d expect from a veteran quarterback — even when under pressure.
This 20-yard completion to Jarvis Landry proves the theory.
The Saints have had a top-3 defense for the last few seasons under former defensive coordinator and new head coach Dennis Allen. What they haven’t had, from the decline of Drew Brees through the quarterback hell they dealt with after Winston’s injury, is a legit starter who can do everything demanded of the position at the highest level. This is not to say that Winston is going to turn into Patrick Mahomes, but we’ve already seen the Jameis who used his physical gifts to get himself into all kinds of trouble. The new Jameis Winston, who seems to understand the game at a different level, could make the 2022 Saints a real problem in the regular season and beyond.
New York Giants: Can Daniel Jones prove anything in his "prove-it" year?
“Everything. Your performance. Your preparation. The job of a quarterback on a team is to lead his team down to score points. Stats are great, percentage, completion percentage, all those types of things. But the biggest this is can you make the right decision under pressure. I’m not saying five-man pressure, just as the game goes out the situation that you’re in and make the right decisions for the offense and lead them down to score points. It’s everybody’s job to do that, but the quarterback touches the ball on every play.”
That’s what former Bills offensive coordinator and new Giants head coach Brian Daboll said September 1, when asked what he needs to see out of his quarterbacks. Daboll certainly saw that from Josh Allen; he helped Allen establish all that stuff in the first place. Now, Daboll has gone several floors down in terms of his quarterback’s physical abilities in the person of one Daniel Jones. The Duke alum was a massive overdraft with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft, and former GM Dave Gettleman isn’t around anymore to blame for that.
What Daboll, and new GM Joe Schoen, have to decide this season is whether Jones can be coached up by one of the best in the business (Daboll) to reach whatever the upside of his potential is.
Through his first three NFL seasons, Jones has done far more to validate the doubters than he has to prove them wrong. His Passing DVOA of -10.6 in 2021 ranked 26th in the league, and that’s the best DVOA he’s posted in a season. There was his -22.4% DVOA in 2020, which ranked 32nd, and his -19.2% DVOA in 2019, which ranked 30th.
The Giants did not pick up Jones’ fifth-year option, and the team will be more than willing to move on if things don’t work out.
Sadly, history is not on Jones’ side. Per Football Outsiders, there have been four quarterbacks who posted Passing DVOA of at least -10.0% in their first three NFL seasons. DVOA currently goes back to 1981, so there’s a pretty decent sample size. Jeff George (1990-1992), Rick Mirer (1993-1995), Tim Couch (1999-2001), and Sam Darnold (2018-2020). Only George was able to redeem himself later in his career. Darnold, like Jones, is trying to buck the “bust” label, and it’s not going well.
As for Jones’ 2022 preseason… well, it wasn’t great. Daboll talked about how quarterbacks react under pressure? Jones was the worst quarterback on the Giants’ roster this preseason when pressured, completing four of seven passes for 33 yards. Tyrod Taylor completed nine of 13 passes for 81 yards, and third-stringer Davis Webb completed 21 of 31 passes under pressure for 147 yards and two touchdowns.
Jones? He was in the weeds under pressure, as has been the case throughout his career.
It might be Tyrod Taylor time sooner than later, which would leave Jones as the odd man out — both with the Giants, and perhaps in the NFL in general in 2023 and beyond.
New York Jets: Can Sauce be the boss?
Last season, and in Robert Saleh’s first season as the Jets’ head coach, Gang Green was not spectacular against the pass. The 2021 Jets had the league’s fewest interceptions (five), allowed the third-most passing yards (4,711, behind the Ravens and Seahawks), gave up the highest yards per catch rate (8.1, tied with the Ravens, who had an historic level of injuries last season), and only the Eagles and Jaguars allowed a higher completion percentage than the Jets’ 68.5% (tied with the 49ers). Their 105.2 passer rating allowed was the NFL’s worst.
That wasn’t going to go over well with Saleh, who got this gig after a masterful tenure as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator. General manager Joe Douglas wasn’t to happy about it, either. Saleh and Douglas signed off on the selection of Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, the best cornerback in this draft class, with the fourth overall pick. In free agency, the Jets landed underrated former Seahawks cornerback D.J. Reed and ex-Buccaneers safety Jordan Whitehead, and both players are set to help as playmakers and shot-callers.
All great additions. But as much as the modern NFL is about how many good defensive backs you have, it’s still also about who can be the alpha of your secondary. Gardner has the skills to be that guy; when I spoke with Richard Sherman in April about the five best cornerback prospects in this class, I told Sherm that Gardner reminded me of… well, him. And Sherm readily agreed.
In his first NFL preseason, Gardner wasn’t targeted once on 24 coverage snaps, but he impressed our own Laurie Fitzpatrick in her review of the big-name rookies at that position.
When Gardner does get targeted, his ability to contend with it against the NFL’s best receivers will go a long way to telling us how much all the offseason improvements can turn this defense around.
Philadelphia Eagles: Can Jalen Hurts become what the Eagles need him to be?
The Eagles are seemingly set up for — if not a championship run, then at least a better postseason result than they got in 2021, when the Buccaneers beat them, 31-15, in the wild-card round. Receiver A.J. Brown is a major addition on offense. They bagged former Giants cornerback James Bradberry in free agency, stole do-it-all defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the Saints in a trade, and added Georgia stars Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean in the draft.
The only real question is, how far can third-year quarterback Jalen Hurts take this team? 2021 was the first year in which the 2020 second-round pick wasn’t looking over his shoulder — trading Carson Wentz to the Colts made this Hurts’ offense, and he responded fairly well. But for every positive step, there was a regression. Hurts’ three-interception game against the Giants in Week 12, and his two-pick performance against the Bucs in the playoffs raised the same questions about how he was seeing the field, when and where he was releasing the ball, and how quickly he was bailing the pocket to his own detriment.
Hurts looked good in a handful of preseason snaps against the Jets, whatever that’s worth, and head coach Nick Sirianni says that he sees a different quarterback this season.
“I thought he was great,” Sirianni said after Hurts completed all six of his attempts for 80 yards and a touchdown on August 12. “He made plays in the pocket when he needed to make plays in the pocket and when he needed to escape, he escaped. I think it’s interesting; I think it’s also to be known that leaving the pocket isn’t just something that you see when the protection breaks down. I think that people think like, oh, we left the pocket early, and the protection was good. Well, sometimes nobody is open. And sometimes the defense calls a good play and it’s not a good look in the coverage.
“So, it’s not as easy to say that the protection broke down, so he left, because that’s obvious. I think the thing that is not as obvious is, again, what I said, somebody slipped on a route out or the defense played a good coverage and there wasn’t anybody open and he’s trying to create with a scramble. I thought he did a great job of that. I thought he played a good football game, first drive, and we’ll just look to build on that.”
If the Eagles and Hurts can build on that the sky’s the limit. If not, is it too soon to say that the 2023 draft class looks to be a lot stronger at the quarterback position than the 2022 draft class did?
Pittsburgh Steelers: Is it possible to win games without an offensive line?
There are a few things we know about the Pittsburgh Steelers as they head into the 2022 season. Their defense will be amazing as long as most everybody on that side of the ball stays healthy. The quarterback situation is in flux — likely, it’s Mitch Trubisky for a few weeks, and then, first-round rookie Kenny Pickett sooner than later. They have some interesting receivers, led by rookie George Pickens, and a solid run game led by Najee Harris, who led the NFL in offensive touches (381), and gained 1,667 yards from scrimmage.
And yet, none of these things may decide Pittsburgh’s 2022 season. What may decide Pittsburgh’s 2022 season is that, at least as we come out of the preseason, the Steelers may have the worst offensive line in pro football.
That’s not just coming from some chucklehead on the internet. That’s coming from head coach Mike Tomlin, who has never been one to mince words, and generally has a creative way with them. Shortly after his team’s 16-15 win over the Jaguars in Week 2 of the preseason, Tomlin put everyone on his front five on blast.
“There wasn’t enough detail from a fine motor skill standpoint, details relative to their position,” Tomlin said of his line two days after the game. “They didn’t play with enough of an edge individually and collectively. The things that are on our tape, we’ve got to own, and I think they’ll be ready to do that.”
Well, After allowing one sack and four quarterback hits against the Jaguars, the Steelers allowed two sacks and four quarterback hits in the preseason finale against the Lions. There’s only so much you can polish this stuff.
Left tackle Dan Moore Jr., left guard Kevin Dotson, and right guard James Daniels have been the primary offenders regarding quarterback protection, but really… outside of right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, who stood out to me this preseason, there’s not a lot to go on here.
I have concerns about the Steelers' offensive line. I have fewer concerns about RT Chukwuma Okorafor, who fought Travon Walker to a draw more often than not. pic.twitter.com/FuPdYGmUoF
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 21, 2022
Problem is, there’s no superstar on the bench who didn’t play in the preseason to come in and help. The same guys you saw leaking everything in the preseason (Okorafor as the obvious exception) could well be starting against the Bengals this Sunday. And that’s not going to look good for anybody but Cincinnati’s defensive line.
San Francisco 49ers: How far away is Trey Lance?
The 2021 49ers already had Jimmy Garoppolo on a five-year, $137.5 million contract signed in 2019 after trading with the Patriots for his services, They were coming off a disappointing 6-10 record in 2020, and Garoppolo was able to play in just six games. Beyond the injury issues, the team had become skittish about Garoppolo’s low ceiling, so they traded with the Dolphins to move from 12th to third in the 2021 draft order to select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.
The haul given away (a third-round pick in 2021, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023) was instructive — Lance was now the franchise quarterback, and the only question was when. The rookie completed 41 of 71 passes for 603 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2021, and his 2022 preseason was… well, maybe not what head coach Kyle Shanahan had hoped.
Like a lot of young quarterbacks, Lance was both too quick and too slow in and out of the pocket when the situation demanded that he get rid of the ball. He wasn’t always mechanically sound when asked to throw outside the pocket, and there were times when he fixated on his first read to the detriment of the entire offense.
The 49ers still have Garoppolo on the roster, and on a restructured contract. This may well speak to the idea that Shanahan and his staff aren’t quite ready to make it Trey Lance Day in the Bay Area. And for a team that looks to have a Super Bowl-level roster most everywhere else, that’s the right decision… for now.
Seattle Seahawks: Can Geno Smith be a credible starting quarterback?
The Seahawks decided to trade Russell Wilson to the Broncos for a handful of players, and a ton of draft capital. This move could be seen as a way for general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll to spackle over their drafts of the last five years. Because when you look at things from about 2016 to about 2021… it ain’t pretty.
Seattle appeared to have an uptick in draft quality this year, which is nice. The primary issue with this team right now is the post-Wilson quarterback situation. Veteran Geno Smith, who filled in for Wilson in four games and three starts when Wilson dealt with a finger injury, beat out Drew Lock, acquired in the Wilson trade, for the starting spot.
With all due respect to Smith, that isn’t going to vault the Seahawks to a championship level. Smith is a plus backup to spot starter, while Lock is a tremendously physically gifted quarterback who will entrance you with 2-3 great throws per game, and then put a new wing on his own doghouse with 4-5 errant passes that make you wonder what we’re doing out there.
Is Smith a credible starting quarterback, in that he’ll carry out the playbook and avoid too many mistakes? Sure, and at his core, that’s what Carroll prefers. But when this offense starts to tumble down the hill too often, Carroll will have to expand his preferences, just as he did when he and his guys took Wilson in the third round of the 2012 draft.
It could be said that the 2022 Seattle Seahawks are really playing for the 2023 draft, where they have the picks to get just about any quarterback they want in a class that appears to be far more loaded at that position than this one was. For now, Seahawks fans, accept that you’re in that pre-Wilson Tavaris Jackson/Matt Hasselbeck/Charlie Whitehurst purgatory, and wait until next year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: How can the offensive line protect Tom Brady?
Throughout Tom Brady’s career, opposing defenses have understood that the best possible way to get to the GOAT is to rush him right up the middle. (We motioned that Super Bowl XLII issus in the intro, yes)? Brady isn’t especially mobile, but he’s probably the best in-the-pocket mover in NFL history, so he’ll move up in the pocket if you try to take him from the edge.
The stuff right up the middle is more complex, and so is the state of the Buccaneers’ interior offensive line heading into the 2022 season. Left guard Ali Marpet retired in February, right guard Alex Cappa signed with the Cincinnati Bengals as part of their O-line redefinition, and center Ryan Jensen is most likely out for the entire season with a knee injury in training camp. The Bucs did trade for former Patriots right guard Shaquille Mason this offseason, who helped protect Brady back in the day, will help — but this could be a problem.
And it’s not just me saying that. Julian Edelman, one of Brady’s most productive receivers with the Patriots, opined similarly on Inside the NFL (via Ben Volin of the Boston Globe).
“Those interior linemen not practicing are more important than Tom Brady not practicing,” Edelman said. “We all know Tom Brady likes that spot seven yards behind the center. They’re going to be able to get away with it in the early part of the season, because Tom barely takes hits anymore, because he knows the game so well. But down in January, when you start playing the best teams, it could be alarming for them.”
Mason, guard Aaron Stinnie, and whoever plays center (most likely Robert Hainsey) have a lot of work ahead of them. Because Brady’s issues against interior pressure are just as evident now as they were back in the day.
Tennessee Titans: What happens if Derrick Henry is done?
The Titans are that rare modern NFL team whose offense undeniably flows through their run game. That’s because they have Derrick Henry, who led the league in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns in both 2019 and 2020, and was on pace to do all of those things in 2021 before the Week 8 foot injury that cost him the rest of the regular season. Henry returned for Tennessee’s divisional round loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, rushing 20 times for 63 yards and a touchdown, and not looking quite as dynamic as he did before.
Perhaps that was a function of returning too early; perhaps the workload caught up to him. Henry had 900 carries from 2019 through 2021, and even with last year’s abbreviated season, that was by far the most for any NFL back — Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook ranked second with 811.
If Henry isn’t what he used to be in 2022, the Titans have some interesting decisions to make. Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been the kind of quarterback you can trust with the entire offense on his back for an extended period of time, and the depth chart behind Henry isn’t exactly inspiring. D’Onta Foreman, who had some explosive plays in Henry’s absence, is now a member of the Carolina Panthers. Journeyman Dontrell Hilliard, who did average 6.3 yards per carry last season as part of Tennessee’s without-Henry committee, might be the main man. Undrafted rookie Julius Chestnut impressed in the preseason, but that’s the preseason.
Washington Commanders: Can somebody please fix the coverage busts?
None of the potential offensive issues we discussed in the Chiefs portion of this program showed up in Kansas City’s 24-14 win over the Commanders in Week 2 of the preseason. Patrick Mahomes was on the field for two drives. Both drives went for 12 plays, one for 82 yards, and one for 87 yards. Both resulted in touchdowns, and both resulted in Mahomes and his receivers beclowning Washington’s secondary, when Washington’s secondary wasn’t beclowning itself.
Observers of Washington’s pass defense over the last couple of seasons under defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio would not find this surprising. Last season, no defense allowed more passing touchdowns than Washington’s 34, to just 11 interceptions. That defense also allowed 400 catches on 597 attempts for 4,542 yards, a completion rate of 67.0%, a yards per attempt allowed of 7.6, an opponent passer rating of 100.9, and an opponent EPA of 67.90. The other teams hanging around at the bottom of all these defensive metrics — the Jets, Jaguars, and Lions — didn’t have anywhere near the talent Washington did.
What you saw, more than anything else, were coverage busts that left opposing offenses in some very good places.
unintentional invert 3 from your washington commanders pic.twitter.com/5GSsxNmRQa
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 5, 2022
This continued in the 2022 preseason, especially against Mahomes, where there were too many things that made no sense at all.
Juuuuuust a bit outside. pic.twitter.com/1q5KHVdLQM
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 20, 2022
Very few things in football drive me crazier than this. Why in the Cinnamon Toast (redacted) are you playing past the sticks? pic.twitter.com/vk2OhadYbr
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 20, 2022
Just to be absolutely clear, we do not support the ouster of Del Rio because he has some “interesting” political views. We are, however, posing the question: If a defense with this much talent from front to back isn’t any better in communication and coverage in 2022… doesn’t it kind of answer itself?
