The NFL Draft can be the balm to soothe a burned franchise. Or it can be a collection of mounting debts for past purchases.
The Chicago Bears and Houston Texans currently stand in the former category. The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers land in the latter.
The draft is where rebuilds find their foundations and win-now teams search for undervalued assets at the back of the line. With a full season to reflect on and the lingering effects of free agency still shaping rosters, we have a solid idea of what each franchise will be looking for when their picks come in over the three-day affair.
Where will each team be focused when the 2023 Draft opens Thursday night? Here’s the biggest question facing all 32 franchises when it comes to to harvest this year’s rookie crop.
Arizona Cardinals: Who's going to bring the biggest ransom for No. 3?
Arizona has no need for a quarterback — Kyler Murray is tied to the club through 2027, for better or worse — and a prime draft slot to select one of this year’s top passers. While the Cardinals could take Will Anderson or Jalen Carter there, 2022’s bottoming-out leaves the franchise with needs just about everywhere. The easiest path back to prosperity would be to trade back and pick up a boatload of draft assets in the process; but who would come calling?
Would the Colts pay a premium to move up one spot? Would the Raiders or Falcons pause their win-now processes to take a high-ceiling project QB? Could someone swoop in from a double-digit first round pick by offering the moon? No one’s quite sure, but Arizona is taking all calls.
Atlanta Falcons: Which prospects can help them win now?
It’s clear Atlanta sees an opportunity in a weak NFC South. Rather than invest cash or draft assets in a high profile quarterback, the team has spent on defensive veterans capable of executing a grind-it-out gameplan opposite a run-heavy offense.
That’s not a bad decision in a division where the only other confirmed starting quarterback is Derek Carr — but which players can have an immediate impact to take advantage of a soft schedule. Even better, who can do that while providing the kind of high upside to keep the Falcons rising over the next five years?
Baltimore Ravens: Are you building for a future with Lamar Jackson, or building around his departure?
The Ravens have always followed a specific archetype — an old-school defense-first philosophy. Their starting quarterbacks in Super Bowl wins were Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer. Jackson is by far the most talented player to ever take snaps for Baltimore, but he wants out. Will the 2023 Draft be executed in service of keeping him happy with blockers and receiving targets? Or will the Ravens focus on defense and return to stasis?
Buffalo Bills: How can you make Josh Allen MVP?
Buffalo could use a succession plan at safety and extra depth at cornerback and on the defensive line — but that’s not nearly as interesting as what the team may have planned for its superstar quarterback. Allen was hindered by a lack of a true WR2 last year; the Bills were 6-1 when Stefon Diggs had 100-plus receiving yards but 7-3 when opponents were able to limit his production to merely “pretty good.”
Finding someone to take the pressure off the All-Pro wideout would help diversify this offense. Upping Allen’s protection would pay dividends as well; the hard-charging QB noted this offseason that he’s going to have to be more judicious about taking big hits going forward now that he’s the fragile age of … 27.
Carolina Panthers: OK, who's your guy?
Carolina traded two first round picks, two second-rounders and D.J. Moore for the honor of dictating how the 2023 NFL Draft will unfold. But the Panthers reportedly didn’t have a favorite in place when they made that trade, leaving the question of who this year’s top pick will be shrouded in mystery.
Will it be Bryce Young? C.J. Stroud? The rapidly expanding ball of potential known as Anthony Richardson? No one’s quite sure, despite what oddsmakers say, but the standard they’ll have to clear is out-performing Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold in Charlotte.
Chicago Bears: What form will this rebuild take?
The Bears didn’t need the first overall pick, so they auctioned it off and got a haul in return from the Panthers. That’s awesome, because so much about this team was garbage last year. Chicago has to make significant upgrades along the offensive and defensive lines and revamp its secondary, even after giving out more than $162 million of contract value to acquire free agents.
What’s general manager Ryan Poles’ plan of attack? Will he draft an offensive tackle first? A cornerback? Will he engineer more trades backward en route to a 12-man rookie class?
Cincinnati Bengals: How confident are you in Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt?
60 percent of Cincinnati’s starting secondary is no longer on the roster; both Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell have signed elsewhere and Eli Apple remains a free agent. Two of those slots can be filled by 2022 first and second round picks Hill and Taylor-Britt, respectively,
But Hill only played 14 percent of the team’s defensive snaps last season and Taylor-Britt gave up a 102.9 passer rating in coverage. The 2023 Draft is ripe with defensive back talent; will it be a priority again this spring?
Cleveland Browns: What's going to fix Deshaun Watson?
Cleveland doesn’t have a first round selection this year, or next, after dealing three Day 1 picks for Deshaun Watson, who’d been accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct and what the league itself later described as “predatory behavior” stemming from his time as a Houston Texan. The man who briefly broke the quarterback pay scale with a fully guaranteed $230 million extension was hot garbage in his Browns debut; his -0.042 expected points added (EPA) per play ranked 32nd among 37 qualified quarterbacks in 2022, sandwiched between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz in the rankings.
His blocking was a top 10 unit and he had Nick Chubb at tailback, but Watson still spun out in his first abbreviated season with the Browns. Who can they add in this year’s draft who’ll have an immediate impact when they don’t have a selection among the first 73 picks?
Dallas Cowboys: Is Jerry Jones going to splurge to add another playmaker?
Dallas has a pronounced need at tight end, could use Tony Pollard insurance at tailback and has room to pad out its wide receiver depth behind CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. There are lots of high profile players that fit that bill — particularly at tight end. But the Cowboys don’t make their first selection until No. 26, and Jerry Jones has never been especially patient when it comes to guys he thinks can be stars in Texas. Will Dallas deal up the draft board on Thursday night at the expense of later picks that could flesh out an already powerful defense?
Denver Broncos: What's Sean Payton going to do to fix broken Russ Wilson?
Wilson’s first season in Denver was a disaster. The Broncos spent mightily to lure Payton from his brief retirement in hopes of restoring him to greatness.
The former Saints coach managed Drew Brees’ late decline with aplomb, keeping New Orleans in the playoff hunt as his quarterback’s arm strength waned. What’s his plan for Wilson and how can his depleted stock of draft assets play a role? And is Jerry Jeudy going to be part of it, or will he be a draft day trade for a head coach looking to trim the roster with his own guys?
Detroit Lions: What's going to lift the Lions to their first division title since 1991?
The momentum cannot be ignored. Detroit went from 1-6 to 9-8 to wrap 2022 and has a massive opportunity to win a fading NFC North. Even better, the Lions have the sixth overall pick thanks to the Matthew Stafford trade and four picks in the first 55 selections.
The offseason was spent revamping the secondary in free agency, but there’s still work to be done. Will Dan Campbell chase down a pass rusher? Linebackers? Defensive backs? Splurge for an elite running back? Anything feels possible when you’re talking about the division-favorite Lions, somehow.
Green Bay Packers: Is this team finally going to take a pass catcher on Day 1?
Green Bay hasn’t selected a wide receiver or tight end in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002. That streak was supposed to end in recent years as Aaron Rodgers’ cupboard was laid bare, but instead the Packers focused on defensive players and, most notably, his presumptive replacement Jordan Love.
But Love’s top returning wideouts are Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure. His top tight end appears to be Josiah Deguara. There’s no way Love is going to meet his potential throwing to those guys alone; will that mean the franchise’s first first round WR/TE in more than two decades?
Houston Texans: Does DeMeco Ryans want a quarterback now, or another season of table-setting?
Houston is loaded with draft assets, but for the second straight year a hopeless season wasn’t enough to lock in the first overall pick. The franchise finally appears to be done with its wink-wink unintentional tanking, hiring an esteemed rising coaching candidate after single-year stints from David Culley and Lovie Smith.
The Texans, however, remain very much stuck in a rebuild with limited building blocks currently on the roster. Would it make sense to trade back from No. 2 and acquire more selections? Would a defensive stud better align with Ryans’ vision and punt a quarterback decision to 2024? Or was two years of Davis Mills enough to convince Houston’s brain trust to spend a premium pick on a blue chip passer?
Indianapolis Colts: Is a move up the draft board from No. 4 worth it?
In 2018, the Colts gleaned three second round picks just so the New York Jets could move from the sixth overall pick to No. 3 and ensure the quarterback of their choosing. That man was Sam Darnold, but the lesson remains; Indianapolis knows full well what a modest move up the top few picks costs.
The Panthers and Texans are both in the market for passers and the Cardinals are in prime position to trade back to another team with a similar need. Would owner Jim Irsay be content with what could be the fourth-best quarterback on the board? Is he willing to pay up just to move up one or two slots?
Jacksonville Jaguars: What's the priority -- protecting Trevor Lawrence or beefing up a 26th-ranked defense?
The Jaguars are ascending and Lawrence looks like a true franchise quarterback. But he’s missing a key piece of his offensive line after Jawaan Taylor signed an $80 million contract with the Chiefs. That offense was significantly ahead of a defense that had the seventh-fewest sacks and gave up the eighth-most total yards in the NFL.
Last year’s draft focused hard on the latter group, with Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma making up three of the team’s first four picks. Will Jacksonville trust those players to grow and look to supercharge its growing quarterback? Or will this be another year in which the Jags invest heavily in defense?
Kansas City Chiefs: How will Brett Veach bolster a roster with more question marks than usual?
The Chiefs just won a Super Bowl and don’t have much to worry about, but there have been more notable departures than additions this offseason. Kansas City has questions to answer along the offensive line, at wide receiver, in the pass rush and in the secondary but the worst possible draft starting point from which to fill it.
Will Veach trust homegrown talent like Lucas Niang, Trent McDuffie, Bryan Cook, Joshua Williams and Skyy Moore to step up? Or will the Chiefs target some trades up in order to add blue chip talent who can contribute immediately?
Las Vegas Raiders: Can this team finally draft a cornerstone cornerback?
The corners the Raiders have drafted in the first four rounds since 2014 are Damon Arnette, Trayvon Mullen, Isaiah Johnson, Nick Nelson, Gareon Conley and Keith McGill. None of them are still with the team, and none of them lasted more than two seasons as a full-time starter.
Fortunately for Josh McDaniels, this year’s crop of defensive back talent is dense with playmakers. Someone from that rookie class will be tasked with fixing a secondary that allowed an NFL-worst 98.8 passer rating.
Los Angeles Chargers: Fix Justin Herbert's supporting cast, or fix the defense?
Injuries wrecked Herbert’s offensive line, forcing him into a conservative gameplan that saw his time to throw and average pass distance both drop considerably between 2021 and 2022. But his receiving corps is shallow behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (who are also getting old) and Austin Ekeler might not be on the roster much longer.
There’s plenty of room for upgrades there — and the same goes for a defense that improved from 26th to 16th in overall DVOA last fall but still has work to be done. Both units shared the blame in the Chargers’ stunning Wild Card collapse in Jacksonville. Which one will be the priority on Days 1 and 2?
Los Angeles Rams: Will anything the Rams do this draft matter in 2023?
The good news is Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are slated to return at full health this season. The bad news is there’s only one non-Aaron Donald defender who made at least 10 starts for the Rams last year currently on the roster.
LA is in danger of cratering despite the relative weakness of the NFC. It actually might be a good thing; barring another Les Snead trade, 2024 is set to be the first year the Rams make a first round draft pick since taking Jared Goff first overall in 2016.
Miami Dolphins: Is there a Tua Tagovailoa insurance policy beyond Mike White?
Tagovailoa led the league in passer rating in a breakthrough third season as the Dolphins’ quarterback. He also suffered multiple head injuries that put his career in jeopardy. He’s learning jiu jitsu to help lessen the concussive impact of his helmet slamming into the turf, but his health — not only on the football field but later in life — remains an unavoidable question for all parties involved.
Miami doesn’t have the draft capital to make a move for a top tier quarterback and only has two picks in the first five rounds. Will either of those be spent on a developmental young quarterback, or will general manager Chris Grier’s protection plan require dedicating those picks to beefing up Tagovailoa’s blocking and supporting cast?
Minnesota Vikings: What's the Kirk Cousins exit strategy?
Cousins turns 35 years old in 2023 and, despite the Vikings’ sterling (and ethereal) 13-4 record, backslid last fall. His 92.5 passer rating was the lowest of his career as a full-time starter. Some of the blame there can be placed on a receiving corps that offered little behind Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson — but unfortunately for Minnesota, that’s roughly where the depth chart stands coming into the draft.
The upcoming season could make it clear Cousins no longer has his fastball. While his contract carries more than $28 million in dead salary cap space for 2024 and makes him virtually uncuttable, it’s fair to wonder if this will force the Vikes to consider a mid-round quarterback talent to groom as a possible successor.
New England Patriots: Is Bill Belichick gonna stand pat with a top 15 draft pick?
Belichick has traded up before — it once net him Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower in the same draft which, (chef’s kiss) — but he’s much more likely to deal premium assets to pick up a shotgun blast of selections in the mid-rounds. Despite Mac Jones’ struggles last season, New England was just a Week 18 win away from a playoff spot.
With glaring needs at offensive tackle and wideout (and, to a lesser extent, cornerback) would the Hall of Fame head coach resist the tempation to add second and third round assets in order to roll the dice on one player who can contribute immediately? Or will it be business as usual for the Pats?
New Orleans Saints: They aren't gonna rely on Michael Thomas for a full season, are they?
Thomas is currently WR2 — or WR1b — next to Chris Olave. If Thomas can return to form, that’ll be a punishing 1-2 combination for Derek Carr. That’s a massive IF, however; Thomas has played in just 10 games since winning offensive player of the year honors in 2019.
The two-time All-Pro is now 30 years old and will have to put together a full season to prevent New Orleans from falling back on secondary targets like Tre’Quan Smith, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson and, sigh, Taysom Hill. Adding an extra target in this year’s draft feels like a prime obective, whether that’s a top flight wide receiver or an elite tight end prospect.
New York Giants: What's the priority; giving Daniel Jones targets or investing in the defense?
Brian Daboll engineered a wonderful turnaround in his first season as head coach, but the soft schedule that pushed the Giants to the postseason won’t be as cushy in 2023. This team needs to make viable improvements to remain in postseason contention; that means Darius Slayton can’t be WR1 again (though he’s a very nice complementary piece!) and an 18th-ranked defense needs to get better.
Will Daboll opt for an upper crust receiver or tight end to kick off his second draft? Or will punching up the league’s worst run defense rise to the top of his wish list?
New York Jets: What's going to keep Aaron Rodgers happy?
The Jets are in solid position to address its offense with the 13th overall pick. But they’re also on the brink of adding a drama magnet quarterback who happens to be a 40-year-old four-time MVP.
New York can make his life easier with blocking or potentially take the first wideout off the board. Or it can choose to put a contingency plan in place and beef up a top five defense with another young blue chip talent. The former seems more likely after the Packers repeatedly stared down their draft choices and picked defender after defender in the first round, only pausing briefly to select Rodgers’ successor.
Philadelphia Eagles: Is it time to splurge on a running back?
The Eagles lost a lot of veteran talent in free agency this spring. Javon Hargrave, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Isaac Seumalo and Marcus Epps all signed elsewhere. But the one missing piece that has driven the most draft speculation is Miles Sanders. Philadelphia inked Rashaad Penny to help replace its top tailback after he defected to the Carolina Panthers, but mock drafts across the league landscape are convinced the team will add another runner on Day 1.
Would that be Bijan Robinson? Jahmyr Gibbs? Or will Howie Roseman patch his holes elsewhere and avoid the debate about whether or not running backs are worth selecting in the first round?
Pittsburgh Steelers: Can anyone push this team from good to great?
In the last three seasons, Mike Tomlin has dealt with two years of Ben Roethlisberger’s dead arm and the underprepared game management of Kenny Pickett. He is 30-19-1 in that span with two playoff appearances and zero losing records.
Pickett’s quiet improvement sets the stage for a useful 2023, but he either needs to make a massive leap or get huge contributions elsewhere for this to be anything more than a Wild Card team. Adding talent on either side of the trenches feels like a need, but would that be enough to make the Steelers a true threat?
San Francisco 49ers: Can John Lynch spin the hay of his mid-round picks into gold?
Various trades and compensatory picks have left the Niners with 11 selections — but none before the 99th pick. Lynch has worked wonders with low-cost free agent acquisitions and late round picks in the past; Brock Purdy, Talanoa Hufanga, Deommodore Lenoir and Eli Mitchell were all Day 3 picks in the last two drafts alone. He’ll have to work similar magic to find win-now contributors for his latest San Francisco squad.
Seattle Seahawks: What's gambling with house money going to turn up?
The Seahawks upgraded at quarterback and gleaned a top five draft pick in the process; that’s how bad Russell Wilson was in 2022. Now Pete Carroll has four picks in the top 52 with which to bolster a playoff roster.
Adding talent to a rising defense is likely on his to-do list, but a developmental passer could be as well. Geno Smith faded down the stretch and while he signed a three-year contract extension this spring it’s not exactly an iron clad deal.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Is it even worth drafting a quarterback in 2023?
The Buccaneers are in a bad spot. They’re coming off a losing season, but winning the NFC South means they won’t draft until the 19th selection — likely well after all the top quarterback prospects have been selected.
A costly move up the board doesn’t make much sense given the team’s many needs elsewhere. Tampa Bay can attempt to compete in a weak division, or it can look at a quarterback room currently led by Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask and opt to sit out the upcoming season and align its chess pieces for next year’s draft, where Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams stands to be the first overall pick.
Tennessee Titans: What is a Mike Vrabel rebuild going to look like?
Tennessee’s fortunes finally faded after seven straight losses to close out 2022. Derrick Henry could no longer carry his offense and the Titans’ defense slipped from 12th in overall DVOA to 19th, allowing for the spiral that chomped up a six-year streak of winning seasons.
There are holes all over the roster and a rising Jacksonville Jaguars team with which to contend in the AFC South. Will Tennessee take back and accrue draft assets in hopes of stockpiling young, lower-profile talent? Or does this team believe it’s one or two contributors away from a return to the postseason?
Washington Commanders: Is Dan Snyder going to torch this place on his way out?
Snyder is reportedly elbow deep in a sale of the franchise he’s run into the ground and turned into one of the highest-profile hostile work environments in the world. He’s not the general manager, but if there’s anyone who can find a way to salt the earth underneath the Commanders it’s the man who has perfected the art over the last two decades.
Washington can use a common sense draft to emerge as a playoff team in a weakened NFC. Or it can lean into its owner’s bad habits and do something truly stupid in Snyder’s swan song.
