Much of the discussion around the India-UK free trade agreement has focused on export projections. Estimates of additional trade, sectoral gains and tariff savings have dominated headlines as the agreement comes into force. The underlying assumption is that lower tariffs will translate into higher exports. But that may not be the most important consequence of the deal.
A more consequential issue is whether the FTA can expand India's exporter base. Not simply by helping existing exporters sell more to the UK, but by nudging thousands of manufacturers who currently do not export, or export only in a limited way, into international markets. If that happens, the long-term payoff could far exceed any near-term increase in shipments to the UK.
