Barclays analyst Dan Levy thinks Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) could announce a merger before Tesla’s annual meeting on Dec. 3. He expects SpaceX to buy Tesla in an all-stock deal. The two are jointly developing Terafab, a giant chip plant Musk says both businesses need for their AI plans. Barclays also points to other overlaps, like Starlink in Tesla cars, xAI software for robotaxis, and Grok, part of SpaceX's growing AI business, for Optimus robots. Levy believes “the true value would be in vertical integration.” Musk hinted at this on Tesla’s Q2 call, saying, “There’s more and more overlap, especially with Terafab.”
Control may be the bigger motive. Musk has long said he wants about 25% voting control of Tesla. Under Barclays’ math, a deal would give him about 37% of the combined company and roughly 56% of the votes, thanks to SpaceX’s dual-class shares.
