Travelers will generally split in two — those who book their flights as soon as they even hear a rustling of any upcoming travel plans and those who continue clicking through different aggregators in the search of that last-minute deal days or sometimes even hours before an upcoming flight.
While the latter strategy would occasionally help one score a cheap ticket in the past, it is becoming increasingly less feasible as airlines cut flights and optimize route coverage amid a staffing shortage. A survey from the Expedia Group (EXPE) -) released earlier this month showed that those who book a domestic flight 28 to 35 days prior to departure will pay on average 30% less than those who buy their ticket at the last minute.
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The booking window, according to the chief economist for travel booking platform Kayak, stretches out even further for popular travel periods such as Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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'Last year was an awfully expensive high watermark...'
"Generally, you really want to be around two months in advance,” Jake Bouvrie told USA Today. "For Thanksgiving, the best time is now. Last year was an awfully expensive high watermark."
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While inflation for domestic airfare has cooled and Thanksgiving flights are projected to be 14% less expensive than last year, Bouvrie recommends booking before Oct. 24 at the latest before prices start rising dramatically and travelers desperate not to miss dinner with their families have no choice but to pay the high fees.
For those looking to travel during the days leading up to Christmas and New Year's, it's best to book by the start of November at the latest.
Kayak competitor Hopper gives an even tighter timeframe for those looking to travel during Thanksgiving. The platform's Chief Economist Haley Berg told USA Today that Oct. 14 is the turning point at which any flights during Thanksgiving weekend will get more expensive.
Want to save on that Thanksgiving flight? This is when you should travel
But even booking months in advance will not account for the fact that certain days are just a particularly expensive time to travel. Those with some flexibility in their schedule could fly in a few days before the holiday on Nov. 20 or 21 and fly out on Monday, Nov. 27. Hopper's 2023 Holiday Travel Outlook reports shows that this can save one up to 15% while traveling during the morning of Thanksgiving itself will cost up to 40% more.
This trend does a full reversal for travel during Christmas. The cheapest flights are when most people are cozy by the fire on Dec. 24 and 25 while the days right before and after the holiday are when prices are highest due to the large number of people who are crossing the country before the holiday. But there is also no need to despair if you do need to head back on Dec. 26 as flights are only projected to be 7% more expensive than staying in a few extra days — even so, it's best to take into account that that is when airports may be especially crowded.
"Definitely avoid traveling on Dec. 22," Bouvrie said. "That's the busiest travel day."
