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To say that the hot stove has been slow to catch fire would be an apt assessment. To date, only 10 of our top 50 free agents have signed, setting the stage for an active winter meetings season that begin on Sunday in San Diego.
While the list of available star players is lengthy, there’s one big domino that everyone is waiting to see fall: Aaron Judge. The reigning American League MVP is due for a potentially record-breaking contract after a historic season in which he led the majors in nearly every offensive category. The Yankees have already reportedly offered Judge an eight-year deal worth around $300 million, which averages out to $37.5 million per year and would surpass the top average annual salary for a position player (a title that currently belongs to Mike Trout at $35.5 million).
While Judge would fit in any lineup, there are a handful of teams that appear to be the best fit for him. Alas, only one will win the sweepstakes. But for the runner-ups, all is not lost. A whiff on Judge’s services will be tough to swallow, though opportunities to improve the big-league roster will still be available through other avenues. For the teams that appear to be pushing to land Judge the most, here are some worthwhile Plan B’s in the event that he signs elsewhere.
Cubs
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The Cubs are in an interesting position. They have money to burn, a young roster and, well, a long way to improve if they want to contend in 2023. They need more pitching, a new catcher (assuming Willson Contreras signs elsewhere), an everyday center fielder and simply more offensive depth in general. So perhaps missing out on Judge would be a blessing for a team with no shortage of holes to plug or cash to spend.
If Judge opts to sign elsewhere, the Cubs would be better positioned to go above and beyond to sign Kodai Senga. The soon-to-be 30-year-old righthander is a potential staff ace, and is represented by the same agent who reps outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who signed with Chicago last offseason. Brandon Nimmo would also be a great backup plan to shore up the outfield, but starting pitching is a greater need in the short term. If the Cubs are going to dole out a contract worth north of $20 million per year, that money would best be spent on a pitcher of Senga’s upside and relative youth compared to some of the older aces on the market like Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander.
Dodgers
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The Dodgers have been the best regular-season team in baseball over the last 10 years, but they have just one World Series title to show for their dominance. This past year was perhaps the most extreme example of that, when they won 111 regular-season games, the most in their 139-year history, and then lost to the Padres in the NL Division Series. Given yet another disappointment, it feels like an inevitability that Los Angeles will make a major move this offseason. Judge would certainly qualify as such. Though the 6'7" slugger is a better fit for right field in the long term, he played center field more than capably in 2022, and the Dodgers now have an opening there following their decision to non-tender Cody Bellinger.
While imagining Judge in a lineup with Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts is tantalizing, the more prudent way to spend that money would probably be on a shortstop, be it re-signing Trea Turner or on any of the other “big four” available this offseason. Since we forecasted him here earlier this month, let’s stick with Dansby Swanson as the move for the Dodgers, who would probably cost half as much as Judge in terms of total value of their contracts and free up some more money to commit toward bolstering the team’s rotation following the departure of Tyler Anderson and (possibly) Andrew Heaney.
Mets
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With free-spending owner Steve Cohen and proximity to the Yankees, the Mets seem to be in as good a position as anybody to make a power play and woo Judge away from their intercity rivals. However, Cohen reportedly has said he is not going to get into a bidding war with the Yankees for Judge. (This prompted an investigation into whether Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner engaged in collusion to keep down Judge’s value, which is prohibited by baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. MLB ultimately closed the investigation after finding no evidence of a CBA violation.)
Instead, the Mets’ top priority should be starting pitching. Three of their five pitchers in their rotation last year—deGrom, Chris Bassit and Taijuan Walker—are currently free agents. Cohen is the wealthiest owner in baseball, and he certainly could use some of his spending money to re-sign deGrom, who is projected to earn $45.1 million per year, according to Spotrac. But perhaps a better long-term move would be to bring in a younger Cy Young Award-caliber starter in Carlos Rodón. The lefthander has ascended to become one of the game’s best pitchers over the past two seasons, and if they sign Rodón, they could use the money left over to add another starter or two to fill out their staff.
Giants
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Given San Francisco’s reported steadfast pursuit of Judge this offseason, it’s fair to wonder how much the front office has considered a Plan B to this point. If Judge’s Bay Area ties aren’t enough to get him to sign with the Giants, the team would be wise to pivot quickly and attempt to address another significant area of need: shortstop.
San Francisco has an older roster, and though Brandon Crawford is still under contract for another year, that shouldn’t stop the team from pursuing upgrades at that position now while there are so many game-changing options available. Carlos Correa, 28, is the youngest of the bunch with perhaps the highest ceiling, and he won’t be out of their price range considering how much money they have set aside for Judge.
Yankees
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Any outcome that doesn’t include the Yankees bringing back Judge would be viewed as a failure. But there’s more than one way to improve a team that reached the ALCS last year, and if Judge signs elsewhere, New York would still have some solid fallback options.
Though the franchise has a number of exciting young shortstop prospects on the way, that shouldn’t preclude the Yankees from going after Trea Turner, who produces at an MVP level and would be a marked improvement over what they got from that position a year ago. The notion that Turner (or any of the top available shortstops) would block the paths of Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe shouldn’t be enough to deter New York from pursuing an obvious upgrade—there’s no such thing as having too much talent, after all. Plus, Turner is capable of playing second base whenever either Peraza or Volpe is ready to take over as the everyday shortstop. If the Yankees sign Turner, they would also have the option of trading one of the two prospects, or second baseman Gleyber Torres, to upgrade at other positions—there would be a 6’7”, 282-pound hole to fill out in right field.
