Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7
Tracking my predictions: 2-4-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
How unlucky can one get? Last week’s inclusion of Chicago Bears wideout Darnell Mooney netted 13.8 PPR points of the forecasted 20.7, so it gets chalked up as a loss. It was not only on the right track but a slight bobble at the goal line away from being within a point of the projected finish. Securing the ball a millisecond sooner would have done the job, and it truly is a game of inches at times.
While that’s two of four losses by the slimmest of margins, we don’t let it get in the way of taking calculated risks. Forward we go …
QB Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Perhaps recency bias is at play here, but these division rivals met just three weeks ago, and Ryan tossed a pair of touchdowns, one interception, and 356 yards worth of completions for 25.4 fantasy points. Since, the Colts have battled injuries in the backfield with Nyheim Hines (concussion), Jonathan Taylor (ankle), and Deon Jackson (quad) all missing varying amounts of time in the past two games.
While Hines is ready to return, and Jackson will be available if Taylor cannot go, the most successful way to attack this vulnerable defense is through the air. On the ground, running backs have averaged the third-fewest fantasy points, scoring a single touchdown in 2022 vs. Tennessee. This defense has given up an average of 44.3 PPR points per game to WRs, which is tied for the most in the league, powered by eight TD grabs on only 68 receptions. Tight ends also have found considerable success.
The Titans have surrendered at least 317 passing yards in four straight contests, and every quarterback to face Tennessee this season has tossed a pair of TD passes or more. The Washington Commanders are the only team to have yielded passing scores at a higher rate than Mike Vrabel’s squad. Just four of 180 attempts have been intercepted, and the position hasn’t rushed for any meaningful stats to skew this matchup in favor of more athletic QBs than the stationary Ryan. Four of the five outings have resulted in three or fewer sacks tallied by the Titans.
So what does that look like in fantasy? Throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns — we’ll even include an interception based on Ryan having thrown at least one in four of six appearances as a Colt — produces 22 fantasy points. And barring unforeseen circumstances working against Indy, this should be considered Ryan’s floor.
My projection: 319 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rushing yard (23.05 PPR fantasy points)
