Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11
Tracking my predictions: 2-7-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
Something tells me I made this reference before, but this season’s series feels like I’ve been a poker player on tilt. Every single time I invest in a player, situation or matchup in this space, it seems as though I’m chasing the next week to catch up. It’s easy to lose track of the fact that every single player in this series is a gamble and not a lock, so I need to occasionally remind myself this is intended to be much closer to Keno than video poker or blackjack.
Lamenting aside, we’ll dive right into Week 11’s player rather than dwell on why I was brash (read as “stupid”) enough to roll with a Carolina Panthers receiver last week.
New York Giants QB Daniel Jones vs. Detroit Lions
Jones isn’t an option for the faint of heart. He has 20 or more fantasy points in two of the last three games but just 10.8 points sandwiched in between. Jones’ role has been mostly that of a game manager in 2022, and he has thrown zero TD passes in four of nine contests.
The one thing head coach Brian Daboll rarely has been given enough credit for in his coaching career is molding his play designs and the implementation of such to the strengths of his personnel. Prior to the ascension of Josh Allen into a star quarterback, Buffalo’s offense was heavily reliant on the running game, because that’s where the talent was centralized. Daboll’s previous stops also showcase his understanding of how to best utilize his available assets.
We’re seeing it play out in real time with the Giants. This team has one of the best running backs on this side of the Milky Way, and New York’s receiving corps is among the least impressive in the league. Rather than having Jones sling it like he has something to prove — which he still does — Daboll’s understanding of this has created a more efficient version of Jones. That’s not necessarily the best thing in fantasy, but it follows a proven blueprint.
Playing within bounds of a system that is deliberately catered to the confines its personnel can occasionally result in massive spikes in production, as we’ve seen with the inconsistency in Jones’ fantasy offerings.
The sheer volatility will scare off most risk-averse owners, and that’s quite all right. In Week 11, Jones has a chance to exploit a Detroit defense that ranks as the worst unit in football vs. quarterbacks. No team has given up more fantasy points on the year, and much of the success is due to four rushing TDs allowed.
Despite allowing those ground scores to QBs — which plays strongly into Jones’ style of play — this remains the top matchup even when those touchdowns are pulled out of the stats against Detroit. The Lions rank as the best opponent for efficiency for generating fantasy points. This opponent is the seventh easiest for yardage per game through the air and No. 5 in touchdown efficiency allowed.
Six quarterbacks have racked up at least 22.6 fantasy points against the Lions, and four of those efforts went into the 30s. Dak Prescott is the only mildly mobile quarterback who didn’t manage relevant stats on the ground. Jalen Hurts (17-90-1), Geno Smith (7-49-1), and Justin Fields (13-147-2) all racked up points, and even a geriatric Aaron Rodgers (4-40-0) turned back the clock a few years vs. this group.
The matchup profiles well for a gamble on Jones in a week in which three viable starting QBs are on bye. This week, trust him vs. Detroit’s laughable defense of the position.
My projection: 21-for-29, 215 yards, 1 TD pass, 55 rushing yards, 1 TD (26.25 fantasy points)
