The plan was simple enough. The 2023 Cincinnati Bengals were going to make the Buffalo Bills look like the 2022 Cincinnati Bengals.
That Cincy team rallied to Super Bowl 56 despite a deficient offensive line that subjected Joe Burrow to constant abuse in the pocket and limited his ability to plant his feet and throw. So on Sunday, with a spot in the AFC Conference Championship on the line, the Bengals attacked the Bills’ blocking to short-circuit Josh Allen.
It worked. Cincinnati harassed Allen all game and the Bills offense failed to drop into gear on a snowy afternoon in western New York. The MVP candidate QB was stifled in both phases of the game. He threw for 263 yards but needed 42 attempts to get there. He completed only 25 percent of his deep balls (two of eight) after connecting on 42.3 percent of those passes during the regular season. He averaged only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground and threw more interceptions than touchdowns as the Bengals swarmed toward him and forced him to rush throws under duress.
Joseph Ossai wins one-on-one vs. Rodger Saffold and holy moly it's a good thing he does — without the hurry Josh Allen puts this on Stefon Diggs for 6 points pic.twitter.com/YcbxLQ4S4k
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 22, 2023
Cincinnati didn’t have to get fancy to do this. This defense won up front despite being outnumbered on a regular basis.
when did the Bills acquire the entire Bengals 2021 offensive line? pic.twitter.com/pMJq7IbVDA
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 22, 2023
Buffalo lost in the trenches all game. Its rushing offense gained only 64 yards on 19 carries, failing to set the table for a sputtering passing attack. While Allen was only sacked once, that was more a function of his ability to avoid pressure and ditch the ball than his help up front.
Cincinnati won enough with regular three- and four-man fronts. But defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo backed up his reputation as one of the league’s best game-planners. He consistently found ways to obscure blitzes and create new angles of attack to shut off Allen’s typical escape routes. Here, nickel back Mike Hilton gets schemed into a free run for a thoroughly brutal QB hit and what was ruled on the field a fumble (it was later overturned).
This dominance up front wasn’t limited to the defensive side of the ball. Despite a slippery field and a defense that knew runs were coming late, the Bengals’ embattled offensive line cleared the way for 172 rushing yards at 5.1 yards per carry. Burrow, sacked nine times in his last Divisional Round playoff game (against the Titans last year) was only sacked once and hit three more times.
That doesn’t quite explain how effective offensive coordinator Brian Callahan’s gameplan was. After Cincinnati’s first touchdown was the result of Buffalo losing track of Ja’Marr Chase, Callahan bet the Bills wouldn’t make the same mistake twice. Boy, was he right.
three guys lined up to the right. three guys jump on the threat of a Chase screen. Brian Callahan was in the Bills heads with this one pic.twitter.com/1avlbWq2yz
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 22, 2023
The Bengals could almost do no wrong. None of their drives went three and out. Their success rate — the number of first downs that result in either another first or a touchdown rather than a punt or turnover — was a staggering 85.7 percent, even including the late fourth quarter drives designed to churn clock and get everyone home safe.
That means if you picked a first down at random Sunday, the Bills had a worse than one in six chance of stopping Cincy from turning that into either points or a fresh set of downs. The Buffalo defense, for reference, finished the 2022 season ranked second in points allowed, sixth in yards allowed and fourth in overall DVOA.
This is all bad news for a Kansas City Chiefs team that hasn’t beaten Cincinnati in any of its three tries against Burrow — including last year’s overtime loss at Arrowhead Stadium. Replicating that performance, however, even against a hobbled Patrick Mahomes, is going to be tough. Kansas City’s win over a feisty Jacksonville Jaguars team was predicated on a blitzing defense giving Trevor Lawrence few options downfield.
The Bengals will likely have to deal with a similar tact next weekend with a Super Bowl on the line. Will they be able to protect Burrow with the same panache they did in Buffalo? Will their defensive front win as many one-on-one battles against a top 10 offensive line after whupping a top 20 unit?
The good news is Cincinnati has done it before and has the personnel and coaching to do it again. Now the Bengals are one win away from back-to-back Super Bowls.
