Russia’s large-scale offensive to seize the Donbas region was under way on Tuesday when troops overran the city of Kreminna in eastern Ukraine and began advancing towards the strategic Ukrainian military hub of Kramatorsk.
The regional governor said Ukrainian soldiers had abandoned Kreminna, a city of more than 18,000 people, after it came under ferocious Russian attack. The assault took place “from all sides”, he said. It is the first victory for Moscow since its battle for the Donbas began on Monday.
“Kreminna is under the control of the ‘Orcs’ [Russians]. They have entered the city,” Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk region, told a briefing. “Our defenders had to withdraw. They have entrenched themselves in new positions and continue to fight the Russian army.”
Haidai said it was “impossible” to know how many civilians had been killed: “We have official statistics – about 200 dead – but in reality there are many more.” He said that “street fighting” was taking place, with four people shot by Russians as they tried to escape by car.
The city had already been pulverised by extensive Russian shelling. It is located close to territory held by pro-Moscow separatists. Russian forces are now creeping towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, 40 miles (60km) south-east.
Meanwhile in the south, Moscow is edging closer to full control of Mariupol in what would be its biggest prize since it invaded Ukraine in February. Relentless bombardment and street fighting have left much of the city pulverised, killing at least 21,000 people by Ukrainian estimates.
On Tuesday evening, according to reports that could not be independently verified by the Guardian, the Russian defence ministry offered a ceasefire for Wednesday to the outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian soldiers holed up with thousands of civilians in the Azovstal iron and steelworks, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants.
Earlier in the day, Russia called on Ukrainian forces to “immediately lay down arms” by issuing a new ultimatum for the defenders to end their resistance, after Ukrainian forces ignored a previous ultimatum on Sunday.
In a video address late on Monday night, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the second phase of Vladimir Putin’s invasion had begun – a statement Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, confirmed during a visit to India. “A significant part of the entire Russian army is now concentrated on this offensive,” Zelenskiy said.
Late last month the Kremlin gave up its violent attempt to seize Kyiv. It says its new war goal is to conquer the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. To do so will involve overcoming Ukraine’s experienced and well dug-in eastern army.
Oleksiy Arestovych, a Zelenskiy aide, predicted the new Russian offensive would fail because of insufficient forces to achieve a breakthrough.
Another senior adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said a hubristic Kremlin was making the same mistake as with Kyiv, which it reportedly expected to capture in 72 hours. “Russians love to tell fairytales,” he tweeted sarcastically.
So far, according to Ukrainian officials, the frontline in Ukrainian-controlled Donbas is still holding. Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov described Kreminna in the northern Luhansk region as a “weak spot”.
Moscow’s troops frequently attack Ukrainian positions from all sides, said Zhdanov, and were occupying jumping-off points on three sides of the Donbas region: north, east and south.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US thinktank, said Russian forces may be able to take some territory because of superior numbers and artillery.
It stressed, however: “Russian operations are unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous major offensives around Kyiv. The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes – poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations, and low morale – that impeded prior offensives.”
In the northern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces mounted several successful counterattacks. They recaptured the villages of Bairak and Bobrivka north-east of Kharkiv city, and Hurisivka, another village between Kharkiv and Izyum, where Russia has assembled a formidable attack force.
On Monday, Oleksandr Motuzianyk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s ministry of defence, said Izyum was the area with the highest concentration of Russian troops.
Izyum, regarded for centuries as the gateway to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and, from there, to the Black Sea, fell fully to Russian forces on 1 April, trapping thousands of civilians in a city where as many as 80% of its residential buildings have been destroyed.
“The enemy has accumulated its forces in Izyum and, unfortunately, has a predominant number of manpower and heavy equipment,” Maksym Strelnyk, the deputy mayor, who managed to leave with thousands of fellow citizens before the town was captured, told the Guardian.
“The Russians are trying to move in the direction of Donetsk region, but there are no serious successes. They are using Izyum as a foothold for the offensive and concentrating all their forces in the city. They set up their barracks, ammunition depots, hospitals, canteens.”
The mayor of the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol alleged that about 40,000 civilians had been forcibly moved to Russia or Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine.
“Unfortunately I have to declare that as of today they are forcibly deporting [people],” Vadym Boichenko told Ukrainian TV. “We have verified through the municipal register that they have already deported over 40,000 people.”
The fall of Mariupol, the largest trading port in the Sea of Azov, from which Ukraine exports grain, iron and steel, and heavy machinery, would be an economic blow to Ukraine and a symbolic victory for Russia. The town is a base for Ukrainian armed forces, and serves as a land corridor from the Donbas to Crimea.
If Moscow were to capture Mariupol, it would be the first big city to fall and mark perhaps Russia’s biggest gain of the nearly two-month war.
