The incursion in January of a Chinese spy balloon into U.S. airspace seemed to many observers like a bad miscalculation by Beijing. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had been scheduled to travel to China the following month, but the balloon incident led to the scrapping of the much-anticipated visit. Chinese leader Xi Jinping almost certainly would have preferred to see diplomacy proceed as planned. It is likely that he would not have sanctioned this operation had he known its consequences. If he believed that the United States would simply overlook the incursion, he was clearly mistaken.
Authoritative sources inside the U.S. government, including senior Pentagon officials, suggest that the real culprit may have been bureaucratic error. It is possible, for instance, that Xi approved the balloon reconnaissance program in general but did not know the particulars of this specific mission—and was unable to identify the ways in which it might undermine his immediate diplomatic priorities. This lack of control seems to belie the conventional image of Xi as a strongman with a tight grip on his lieutenants. After all, Xi does have a firm hold over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). At the 20th National Party Congress last fall, for example, he appointed to prominent positions an array of party officials with whom he has close personal ties. But how could such a powerful ruler be unaware of, or lack quality information about, the potential fallout from a risky operation?
