With Zach Wilson more likely to be elsewhere in 2023 than to be starting for the Jets after being demoted to QB3 for the second time this season that wasn’t because of injury, speculation has already run rampant as to who will be quarterbacking the team next season.
One name that has been a part of that speculation is Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who was benched this week in favor of Jarrett Stidham and may have just played his final game as a Raider.
Carr signed a three-year, $120.5 million extension this past offseason as the Raiders were coming off a playoff appearance. Despite that and the addition of wide receiver Davante Adams, the Raiders enter Week 17 with a 6-9 record. They are technically still alive in the playoff race, but let’s be honest, it’s not happening.
So with Carr benched, the question now becomes whether he returns to Las Vegas next season. Carr’s $32.9 million 2023 base salary as well as $7.5 million of his $41.9 million base salary in 2024 become fully guaranteed on February 15. The Raiders can save $29.25 million in cap space by moving on from Carr before then.
Could the Raiders trade Carr before then? Perhaps to a team like the Jets? Maybe. That’s what Zack Rosenblatt and other writers at The Athletic discussed this week, coming up with potential trade packages for Las Vegas to land Carr and take on what would amount to a three-year, $116 million contract.
Keep in mind, Carr has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he can basically help steer himself with these trade discussions.
Here is what Rosenblatt wrote in regards to a potential Carr trade and what package he would propose.
It is no secret the Jets are looking for an answer at quarterback, especially since Zach Wilson failed what is a playoff-caliber roster. The Jets will spend the next few weeks figuring out if Mike White is a legitimate starting option, but Carr would obviously be a more surefire upgrade — and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll still only be 32 in 2023.
I have a hard time believing the Jets would give up a lot for a player at Carr’s current salary, so there would need to be some negotiation to bring down Carr’s significant upcoming cap hits. The Jets are currently only projected for around $15 million in cap space for 2023, with a number of key financial decisions to make and other holes to fill. Quinnen Williams is on the verge of an Aaron Donald-esque payday, and key players like George Fant, Connor McGovern, Sheldon Rankins, Quincy Williams, Lamarcus Joyner and Greg Zuerlein are all set to hit free agency. They’ll likely have to make some tough cuts (think Corey Davis, C.J. Mosley and/or Carl Lawson) to clear enough cap space to upgrade the roster — especially on the offensive line, which looks like a real problem area.
But ultimately, if the Jets believe they really are just a quarterback away from the playoffs, I expect owner Woody Johnson wants GM Joe Douglas and coach Robert Saleh to find the right guy to get them back into legitimate contention.
I am tempted to offer Wilson to the Raiders to give them a young developmental QB option, but McDaniels might be coaching for his job, so that seems unlikely. Since Carr feels more likely to be cut than traded — and the Jets will have interest in Garoppolo — I don’t think Douglas would offer much more than a Day 2 pick. So that’s what I’ll go with: a 2023 third-round pick, and throw in a 2024 fifth-rounder, too.
That package is almost on par with some of the quarterback trades we saw this past offseason, namely Matt Ryan to the Colts and Carson Wentz to the Commanders. As Rosenblatt notes, the Jets will have plenty of decisions to make regarding their own players, starting with Quinnen Williams.
The three players he mentioned as potential cuts — Corey Davis, C.J. Mosley, Carl Lawson) all would provide a good amount of cap relief if the Jets decide to move on. Davis makes sense as the Jets would be able to roll with a trio of Garrett Wilson, Denzel Mims and Elijah Moore going forward.
Cutting Davis would save $10.5 million in cap space, so if the Jets are going to cut one of those three, Davis would probably be the most likely. Cutting Lawson would actually save $15 million if the Jets want to go that route as well and Mosley would save almost $6.6 million.
Would Carr want to join the Jets? That’s an entirely different story. Would the Jets consider Carr their top option? As Rosenblatt notes, the Jets may also be in on Jimmy Garoppolo, who is already set to be a free agent after the season.
Regardless, the Jets are likely going to be in the veteran quarterback market and Carr (and many other veteran quarterbacks) will be connected to the Jets until, or even if, one of them actually lands with the Jets.
