Climate activists have produced an interactive map which warns several coastal Avon and Somerset parishes could be under water in less than 30 years. Modelling by Climate Central predicts that Avonmouth, Severn Beach and large parts of Weston-Super-Mare, Clevedon and Portishead will be flooded by 2050.
That scenario is based on research around sea level rises, annual flooding and pollution rates at their current trajectory, say the group. Users of the map can adjust the settings to show predictions based on what would happen if immediate, far-reaching action were taken around climate change, or if things went unchecked.
Studies cited by the group have claimed sea levels could rise by as much as 10.8 metres if temperatures were to increase by four degrees from pre-industrial levels. They say that even a two-degree rise could result in 130 million people losing their homes worldwide.
Explore the map below:
According to their predictions, stretches of the M5 just west of Bristol would be submerged, as would the beaches at Weston, Sand Hay, Portishead and Ladye Bay. Major supermarkets including Clevedon's Tesco and both Sainsbury's and Morrisons in Weston, would be in areas shaded red, not to mention thousands of homes and other businesses - forcing huge movement of people inland.
Bristol itself is predicted to escape most of the flooding in the modelling, with Avonmouth being the worst-hit area. But our city is still trying to take action on climate change. In 2019 the independent Bristol Advisory Committee on Climate Change was established to provide technical expertise to help the city to understand and accelerate progress towards its ambition to be a carbon-neutral and climate-resilient city by 2030.
In February 2020, the One City Environment Board published the One City Climate Strategy setting a shared vision for Bristol in 2030 to be a carbon-neutral and climate-resilient city. The strategy is framed around ten themes and six enabling conditions that describes the dramatic changes needed in transport, heat and electricity networks, what people consume and waste, food, businesses and public services, buildings, infrastructure and natural environment.
Climate Central explained how their predictions, which inform the interactive map, work: "Climate Central’s sea level rise and coastal flood maps are based on peer-reviewed science in leading journals. As these maps incorporate big datasets, which always include some error, these maps should be regarded as screening tools to identify places that may require deeper investigation of risk.
"Outside of the United States, maps are based on global-scale datasets for elevation and tides in addition to sea level rise projections. For the 50 U.S. states, more accurate but still imperfect data are used. Areas lower than the selected water level and with an unobstructed path to the ocean are shaded red. By default, areas below the water level but that appear to be protected by ridges are not shaded.
"Our approach makes it easy to map any scenario quickly and reflects threats from permanent future sea-level rise well. However, the accuracy of these maps drops when assessing risks from extreme flood events. Our maps are not based on physical storm and flood simulations and do not take into account factors such as erosion, future changes in the frequency or intensity of storms, inland flooding, or contributions from rainfall or rivers."
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