There has been a major increase in crime in Wales with some areas seeing violent crime doubling in just five years. WalesOnline has compared the Office for National Statistics (ONS) crime data for 2021 with the equivalent figures from five years before in 2016.
Despite the fact that for some of 2021 people in Wales were under a strict Covid lockdown the amount of crimes (excluding fraud) has increased by almost 30%. Concerningly violent crime has risen by 83% across the whole of Wales when comparing the two years and sexual offences have increase by more than 50%.
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There has been an explosion in public order offences with them rising by over 500% in some parts of Wales though this may be in part related to lockdown enforcement. Every part of Wales saw a large rise in offences related to the possession of weapons and three out four Welsh forces saw in an increase in drug offences. However there was a fall in offences related to theft.
This chart shows the change in different crimes compared to five years ago:
How do difference forces compare?
The situation varies massively across the country. Wales has four police forces and all saw a rise in crime in 2021 compared to 2016. However three of them – Dyfed-Powys, Gwent, and North Wales – all saw rises significantly higher than South Wales Police.
Given that South Wales force area has the largest population (just over double the size of the next-largest force, which is North Wales) this pulled down the Wales-wide average and hid some of the significant increases in other parts of the country. This is how much crime has gone up in each part of Wales:
- Wales-wide - 28.74%
- Dyfed-Powys - 78.26%
- Gwent - 30.31%
- North Wales - 56.96%
- South Wales - 4.70%
Violent crime has more than doubled in North Wales and is not far off tripling in the Dyfed-Powys force area (180% increase). Gwent Police saw the highest increase in sexual offences which nearly doubled with a 98% increase.
This chart shows how individual crimes have changed in 2016 compared to 2021 broken down by force area:
Policing is run by the UK Government. According to Full Fact at the end of 2019 the number of police officers in England and Wales fell by 20,600 between March 2010 and March 2019 down to 123,200 officers (126,300 including those from the British Transport Police and those on secondment). These figures refer to the number of full-time equivalent officers. The number of police officers in England and Wales is at close to the lowest recorded level since the early 1980s. Following the last election Boris Johnson announced an increase in the number of police by 20,000 though critics have pointed out that this only offsets the cuts previously made by the Conservative Party.
Things to understand about this data
It is important to bear in mind the as with all data there is often a lot going on behind the numbers. For example if more people come forward to report crime it may look like there is a more crime happening when if fact more people are coming forward.
There are also issues around how the data is recorded. For example the ONS left a note about Gwent Police on its data saying that "violent and miscellaneous offences are lower than expected by approximately 500 offences" but that the force's "public order offences are higher by approximately 250 offences".
Other examples can be found in how burglaries are recorded. In 2016 burglaries were recorded in a different way as they were split by dwelling and non-dwelling burglaries while now they are recorded as residential and commercial burglaries with the difference being a shed or garage break-in is now counted as residential burglary. Another example of changes in recorded crime come from the fact some public order offences would have been previously recorded as anti-social behaviour (ASB). It is also worth bearing in mind that 2021 wasn't a typical year as we were all under lockdown rules for the first six weeks of the year.
What have the forces said?
Detective chief superintendent Nicky Brain, Gwent Police’s head of crime, said: “We welcome the fact that we've seen a decrease since 2016 in crimes such as theft, burglary, and shoplifting thanks to the work of our officers. However we’ve seen increases in others including violent crime, sexual offences, and residential burglary.
"Violent crime has risen nationally due to better reporting and more media attention resulting in people being more informed and aware of the importance of reporting this type of crime. While our service is no exception these rises our numbers in Gwent remain historically low and we remain one of the safest places to live in Wales.
“We’re committed to supporting victims of all crimes, especially those reporting sexual offences to us. The rise in recorded sexual offences is also due to increased reporting suggesting more people are confident in taking that first step to come forward report a crime to us.
“We would urge anyone who believes they are a victim of crime to come forward in the knowledge that we will support them and treat them with care and respect. Our record of achieving a criminal justice outcome for victims of sexual offences is strong. We continue to work hard to ensure that our response to victims remains at the heart of all we do as a police service.
“Changes to the way in which crimes are recorded, such as residential burglary and public order offences, have had an impact on the number of crimes recorded. Our commitment remains to provide protection and reassurance to Gwent so that it continues to be among the safest places to live and work in Wales. We’re determined to keep our streets as free from crime as possible and our work never stops in that regard.”
A Home Office spokesman said: “We are putting more police on our streets to keep our communities safe and through the beating crime plan they will have the powers and tools they need to stop crimes happening in the first place and keep serious offenders behind bars for longer. Crime recording improvements in the wake of critical inspections of forces’ crime data integrity from 2014 have resulted in a rise in public order offences and certain categories of violent crime.”
South Wales Police temporary assistant chief constable Jo Maal said: “The impact of the Covid pandemic on policing and society in general has been unprecedented since March 2020 and will continue to have an impact on the crime and disorder landscape. The re-opening of the night-time economy in south Wales resulted in an immediate increase in violent crime and public order offences and we are working with the violence reduction unit and our partners to understand the patterns and hotspots to inform and engage with our communities, but we will take positive action where necessary.
“The force has received an additional 56,000 emergency 999 calls since 2016, which is a 31% increase over the five-year period from 2016. During that time we have also seen an increase of 7,800 non-emergency (101) calls but this is balanced against 207,000 calls for service via other means – including social media, emails, and Single Online Home. The force is committed to making the best use of technology to manage demand and to support our frontline officers in improving their capability and capacity to deal with an ever more complex policing environment.
“During the Covid period in 2020-21 the traditional crimes of burglary, theft, and shoplifting fell and have not increased since the restrictions have been relaxed. However we have seen a rise in other crime types such as stalking and harassment, cybercrime, and rapes and serious sexual offences. In response to the increases in rapes and serious sexual offences we’ve introduced dedicated investigation teams to provide support to victims throughout the investigation. Our positive outcome rate stands at 7.1% which is the fourth-highest positive outcome rate in England and Wales.
“The force continues to work with its partners to provide support to vulnerable people and work with them to prevent, detect, and reduce crime. Tackling violence in all its forms but particularly targeted at women and girls remains a priority for the force. Crime is only a part of what we deal with. Mental health-related incidents continuing to represent a significant amount of demand and represents around 12% of daily incident demand. South Wales Police’s neighbourhood policing strategy demonstrates a commitment to provide the community with neighbourhood teams that are visible and accessible and focused on early intervention, prevention, and problem-solving to ensure that we provide the best possible service for the communities of south Wales.
“In 2021-22 the force recorded 330,495 crimes and made 31,132 arrests with our positive outcome rate for overall crime standing at 16.5 %, which places the force second nationally. Our positive outcome rate for violence with injury stands at 23.5%, which places the force as the highest ranked force in England and Wales.” Dyfed-Powys Police and North Wales Police were approached for comment.
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