As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the perceptive and pocketbook-focused American voter is concerned about one thing above all: the cost of living. According to a new report from Goldman Sachs chief U.S. political economist Alec Phillips, this economic frustration has placed President Trump’s aggressive tariff regime in the political and legal crossfire, creating a scenario where trade barriers are likely to come down rather than go up in the coming months.
With mid-term elections coming up in March, Phillips notes that the cost of living remains the “top issue of concern to voters,” with a higher percentage citing it now (29%) than ahead of the 2024 presidential election (25%). Using data from prediction markets platform Kalshi, Phillips argues that the consensus expectation is that Democrats are “much more likely” to win the House majority next year. There is one overwhelmingly clear choice to make, he adds: “The most obvious policy lever to pull would be tariff reductions.”
