Nottingham Forest are performing below their predicted points according to xG, despite being thumped 4-0 by Leicester City on Monday night.
According to expected goals data, the Reds, who have lost five games on the bounce, are actually 3.48 points worse off than expected. With six goals scored and 21 conceded, Steve Cooper's side are well below where they would like to be.
But the "expected points" Premier League table would actually suggest they are picking up worse results than their performances deserve. Bottom of the genuine table, Forest are actually expected to be on a far more respectable 7.48 points, which would put them above the bottom three.
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For example, in their 3-2 defeat at home to Bournemouth, the Reds' xG of 1.33 was comfortably better than the Cherries' 0.91. That suggests Cooper's men should have picked up at least a draw based on the quality of chances created in that game.
A league based on xG scorelines would put Forest in 16th place. Elsewhere in the league, fellow promoted side Fulham are the biggest overperformers, with 11 points from eight games - more than four better than their 6.96 point prediction according to xG.
Bournemouth are also doing better than expected, with nine points, 3.86 better than the 5.14 points expected of them. They would actually be at the bottom of the table according to the xG formula.
Leaders Arsenal are another side outperforming expectations on 21 points, having been expected to pick up 17.26, an overperformance of 3.74. Manchester City top the expected points table, with a predicted 20.71 points closely matching their real tally of 20, which shows their performances have matched their impressive results.
Liverpool are a side underachieving, with 10 points from seven games, having been expected to pick up 12.81. Manchester United, who lie in sixth place with 12 points, are actually 2.66 points better off than expected.
Chelsea are doing better than expected, with 13 points, 3.64 above their expected tally of 9.36. Tottenham Hotspur are also above expectations, picking up 17 points so far while expected to be on 13.88, a gain of 3.12. West Ham United are the most underperforming side in the league, with their seven points in eight games well below the 10.74 expectation.
Premier League table based on xG predictions
xG Pos - Team (actual points) - xPts
1 - Manchester City (20) - 20.71
2 - Arsenal (21) - 17.26
3 - Brighton (14) - 14.12
4 - Tottenham (17) - 13.88
5 - Newcastle (11) - 13.33
6 - Liverpool (10) - 12.81
7 - Brentford (10) - 12.37
8 - West Ham (7) - 10.74
9 - Aston Villa (8) - 10.24
10 - Chelsea (13) - 9.36
11 - Manchester United (12) - 9.34
12 - Southampton (7) - 9.29
13 - Wolves (6) - 9.17
14 - Leeds (9) - 8.83
15 - Everton (10) - 8.82
16 - Nottingham Forest (4) - 7.48
17 - Fulham (11) - 6.96
18 - Crystal Palace (6) - 6.78
19 - Leicester (4) - 6.62
20 Bournemouth (9) - 5.14
Where do you think Forest will finish this season? Have your say in the comments below
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