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Siren Sport / By Gemma Bastiani

The AFLW finals have arrived: why your team could win and how they'll do it

The AFLW finals for 2022 are upon us, with North Melbourne-Tasmania, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood, and Fremantle all set to battle it out for the premiership. (ABC Sport)

After the longest home and away season yet, the 2022 AFLW finals series is upon us.

Six teams have qualified, each with a distinct style of game that's served them well throughout the year so far. 

This is how those styles were represented on the stats sheet as the finalists worked their way to the post-season.

Adelaide Crows

The Crows have shifted focus away from centre clearances and stoppages, relying more on winning the ball once it's cleared to the outside. (Getty Images/AFL Photos: James Elsby)

Adelaide has finished top of the ladder for the third time in six seasons but this year, their focus has been very different to that of the dominant 2019 team that went on to win the premiership.

This year, Adelaide shifted its focus away from centre clearances and stoppages more generally, relying less on winning the ball at the source and confident they can win it back once it's cleared to the outside.

They are averaging the fewest centre clearances of any side with just 3.9 per game - averaging progressively fewer centre clearances over the past four years.

Instead, Adelaide is averaging the most intercepts in the league with 61.7 each game. In doing so, they are conceding the fewest inside 50s (21.9), shots on goal (7.5) and points (18.7).

Not only are the Crows conceding the fewest inside 50s, but once their opposition does get the ball into attack, they make life exceptionally hard for forwards. Adelaide's opponents are generating a shot on goal from just 34.3 per cent of inside 50s, and a goal just 11.4 per cent of the time.

They are happy to allow an opposition team to clear the ball, force the turnover and then, with their very disciplined defensive group, condense the ground into their own forward half through a neat kick and mark game. This has led to the most marks inside 50, with an average of 9.5.

Ashleigh Woodland played four games for Melbourne in the AFLW before returning home to Adelaide and signing with the Crows in 2020. (Getty Images: Robert Cianflone)

Despite controlling the ball in their forward half and 16.9 shots on goal per game, the Crows haven't been able to pile on scores like they have done in the past. This is largely due to the lowest goal accuracy in the competition, goaling from just 32 per cent of shots.

Sides have challenged — or beaten — Adelaide this year off the back of strength and speed out of the middle, getting the ball into attack before the Crows are able to set up and intercept.

Come finals, this will likely be route one for their opponents because once a side concedes territory to Adelaide, it's incredibly hard to break through their defensive structures.

Brisbane Lions

Brisbane enters the finals series aiming to become the first AFLW club to win back to back premierships and is positioned well to do so.

Irish star Orla O'Dwyer played in the 2021 Premiership team, which beat the Adelaide Crows. (Getty Images: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos)

They have arguably the most unique game style in the competition and it has solidified over the past two years. The bonus of their game is that even if opposition sides can identify exactly how the Lions are winning games, it's an exceptionally hard game to shut down.

It's about team-first acts for Brisbane. Everything comes back to what is the best split-second action for the team, and this is reflected in their one-percenter numbers in recent years.

One percenters include acts like knock-ons and smothers, acts which litter Brisbane games and assist in moving the ball forward without always needing to take possession. Due to this, they are the hardest team to tackle as opposition players never know if they are going to take possession of the ball or choose to tap it forward to the advantage of a teammate. This year, Brisbane has conceded the fewest tackles (45.8) and tackles inside 50 (4.5) each game.

While they have become experts at conceding low tackle counts, the Lions' forward pressure is the best in the competition, averaging 16 tackles inside 50 per game — the most of any team in AFLW history.

A rising star nominee in her debut 2019 season, Jesse Wardlaw has established herself as a mainstay of the Lions forward line. (Getty Images/AFL Photos: Kelly Defina)

This hasn't been straightforward for Brisbane, however.

The side has built on what it got right last year but has needed to adjust to the loss of important key defender Kate Lutkins, who went down with an ACL injury in round one.

In 2021, they were able to let opposition sides get the ball into attack, knowing that their strong defensive line would rebound back out to launch an attack. No game was a better encapsulation of all of this than the 2021 grand final, where Brisbane not only broke the record for most one percenters in an AFLW game (46) but conceded at the time the sixth-most inside 50s in history while only giving up three goals.

The Lions lost Kate Lutkins to an ACL injury in round one. (AFL Photos via Getty Images: Albert Perez)

In 2022, the Lions have become adept at keeping the ball in their forward half and in doing so, negating the loss of Lutkins, averaging the most inside 50s the competition has ever seen (40.8) off the back of clearance dominance.

Collingwood Magpies

Collingwood has scraped into the finals off the back of a solid three weeks of the home and away season but has an ominous road ahead.

Collingwood locked up the sixth spot in the finals group after comfortably beating Richmond in the last round of the home and away season. (Getty Images: Darrian Traynor)

After losing Brianna Davey in round one and then Brittany Bonnici in round eight, both to ACL injuries, the Pies have had to rediscover their brand. Across the first seven rounds, Collingwood struggled to find its brand without Davey after being so reliant on its co-captain to connect its midfield and forward line last season.

Against the Bulldogs in round eight, however, the Pies found an impressive spread from stoppages, utilising disciplined wingers like Sarah Rowe and Steph Chiocci, and moved the ball with ease to the open side of the ground.

This awareness and work rate saw them find consistent, effective inside 50 entries — something that had been missing from their game for much of the year.

Collingwood has won the uncontested possession count by a collective 173 across its last three games and from that, has averaged 8.5 more inside 50s compared to earlier in the season.

This has seen them score more heavily from a wider spread of goal kickers. This being said, the Pies haven't shown much strength in the air even at their best, averaging the fewest contested marks (3.0) and second-fewest marks inside 50 (3.8) in the competition this year.

Two-time All Australian Sabrina Frederick made the switch to Collingwood from Richmond. (Getty Images/AFL Photos: Michael Willson)

The concern for the Pies is that they have not beaten any of their fellow finalists, with a record of four losses and a percentage of 43.3 against the top six. They are the only finalist yet to beat another top-six side this year, albeit with the caveat of coming within two points of minor premiers Adelaide.

That game style that has seen them improve in recent weeks is largely thanks to them outsmarting their opponents and working into space while others are caught ball-watching, which won't be such a simple proposition against the well-coached teams still in contention.

Fremantle Dockers

The Dockers have had the opposite season to Collingwood, starting exceptionally strong but falling away in recent weeks. Recent losses do, however, come with the caveat of COVID interruptions and a lack of player availability.

Gemma Houghton has been a star forward for the Dockers this season. (Getty Images: Will Russell)

Fremantle's game is built off the back of pressure and tackling — hardly a surprise with Kiara Bowers in the side. They average the most tackles in the competition this year with 73.2 per game and from that, win plenty of holding the ball free kicks.

With the speed and power of Hayley Miller, Gabby O'Sullivan and Bowers heading up the midfield, the Dockers use acceleration to burst out of stoppages and get the ball inside 50 quickly, keeping defences on their toes.

In the second half of the season, they lost much of their dominance around stoppages, arguably due to Bowers' absence, which in turn resulted in less territory control in-game.

Hayley Miller plays with speed and power, keeping the Dockers' opponents guessing. (Getty Images: Paul Kane)

Unfortunately, due to this, their efficiency once getting the ball into attack has diminished, but a hint of that damaging attack from earlier in the year resurfaced late in the game against Gold Coast on Sunday.

The speed with which Fremantle plays, combined with a focus on getting the ball forward as directly as possible, has resulted in them having the lowest disposal efficiency of the six finalists, going at just 58.7 per cent with the ball.

Creating a chaos game filled with pressure and surge footy will be the Dockers' best bet at knocking off their fellow finalists.

For its qualifying final, Fremantle must travel to Melbourne to take on North Melbourne. This may seem like a disadvantage, but after spending the first month of the 2022 season in a Victorian hub, the Dockers have a better record in Melbourne than they do at home in Perth.

  • Fremantle in Melbourne - 4W / 0L / 206.5 per cent
  • Fremantle in Perth - 2W / 2L / 88.0 per cent

Melbourne Demons

Perennially an almost side, Melbourne has won the second-most games in AFLW history but never won through to a grand final. This year, the formula has been tweaked and they are the most complete Demons the competition has seen yet.

Melbourne has won the second-most games in AFLW history, but they've never won through to a grand final. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Key to Melbourne's season this year has been a combination of its own strengths with taking away important parts of its opponent's game.

Improving on the quick, running handball game through the corridor that they showed glimpses of last year, the Demons have spent the year running in support of one another and using overlap run to move the ball forward, but able to temper that with controlled, precise ball movement when the occasion calls for it.

In doing so, they are preventing their opponents from dominating possession — particularly uncontested possession — conceding the fewest average disposals (197.9), uncontested possessions (95.5) and marks (29.3) this year, and when they do give up the ball, the Demons are able to force poor ball use, conceding the lowest disposal efficiency this year (58.4 per cent).

Kate Hore has become an integral part of the Demons' forward line. (by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The biggest growth in the Demons this year, however, has been in attack.

In the past, they have generated plenty of opportunities to score but never really made the most of it. This year, that has changed significantly.

In 2022, they have the best shot efficiency (50 per cent) and goal efficiency (22 per cent) in the competition, meaning they are making better use of their opportunities in attack than any other team.

This has led to the second-highest average score in the league with 47 points per game.

Vital to this has been Melbourne's accuracy at goal. In the past, Melbourne has let itself down with poor accuracy, with 57 per cent of its losses since 2017 coming despite registering more scoring shots than its opponent. Improvement this year has seen the side's accuracy soar to 44.1 per cent, the third-best conversion in the competition.

What the Demons need to be wary of heading into finals are sides that can use pressure and endurance to close down space and prevent them from playing games on their terms.

Throughout the year, teams have proven that wall-to-wall pressure is the way to take games away from Melbourne, but just the Crows have been able to do it for the full four quarters. With a number of this year's finalists well versed in pressure, the Demons need to find an effective plan B when faced with this sort of game plan.

North Melbourne Tasmanian Kangaroos

The Kangaroos have played a style of footy focused on uncontested outside balls since joining the competition in 2019. When they are able to get control of games in this way, they look dynamic, skilful and very hard to stop. But when teams are able to force them into a messier ground ball game, that control disappears.

The Kangaroo's captain since its entry into AFLW, Emma Kearney is one of the great all-rounders of the women's game. ((Getty Images / AFL Photos: Kelly Defina)

This year, North Melbourne is winning more ball than any other side, averaging 241.6 disposals and maintaining that possession with the highest disposal efficiency (67.1 per cent) and mark count (53.1) in the competition. The problem being that against better sides, the Roos struggle to execute these clean skills and don't really have another plan to fall back on.

Coming into 2022, they were the only side to average 40 or more points a game across all seasons in the competition. This streak has now ended, with an average score of just 34.6 this season. This is largely due to a lack of system when sending the ball forward.

Tahlia Randall made the switch to the forward line this year and, with the recruitment of Kim Rennie, Emma King has been able to spend more time in attack as well, but even with two tall, marking forwards inside 50, the Roos haven't been able to make best use of these assets.

Winning the inside 50 count in seven of their 10 games so far, they are often poor choices put to the defender's advantage instead of their own teammates'. North Melbourne is generating a score from just 39 per cent of its inside 50s, the lowest scoring efficiency of any finalist.

Kaitlyn Ashmore has been with the Kangaroos since 2019. (Getty Images: Jonathan DiMaggio)

This lack of composure when moving the ball into attack has been exacerbated by clever opposition sides, who allow the Roos to feel in control in the back half of the ground but then pile on the pressure as they attempt to attack.

For the Kangaroos, withstanding opposition pressure in their forward half is the key to progressing through this year's finals series.

ABC Sport is partnering with Siren Sport to elevate the coverage of Australian women in sport.

Gemma Bastiani is an AFLW analyst, music business lecturer and co-founder of Siren: A Women in Sport Collective.

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