On June 6, Boris Johnson survived a vote of no confidence held amongst his own MPs. He won by 211 votes to 148 votes but did not have the support of 40% of MPs.
The rules of the 1922 committee of backbench Conservative MPs mean the Prime Minister should not normally face another no confidence vote for a year. However, it now looks like he could face another as soon as next week.
Bloomberg has reported that the 1922 Committee will meet at 5pm on Wednesday, July 6. They will discuss changing the rules to allow another leadership ballot. If there is a majority opinion in favour, a ballot could be held as soon as next week. You can get more politics news and other story updates straight to your inbox by subscribing to our newsletters here.
READ MORE: Follow Boris Johnson's battle to survive live
What is the committee?
The committee is made up of 18 members in total, including six officers - a chairman, two vice-chairs, two executive secretaries and a treasurer. The chair is currently Sir Graham Brady. The committee's executive is due to meet at 4pm on July 6, with the full committee meeting at 5pm.
Why will the membership change?
Each time there is a Queen's Speech and a new session of parliament begins, the committee's roles are up for re-election - meaning a vote is due. Sir Graham was expected to announce the opening of nominations on Wednesday.
A majority of the backbench 1922 Committee executive would have to back a change to allow a fresh confidence vote on Mr Johnson’s leadership. Based on the current membership, according to the public declarations of the current 16 executive members, it now appears that up to 10 could plausibly support a change, according to Joe Armitage, political analyst at Global Counsel. Read here the best putdowns as Boris Johnson is ridiculed at Prime Minister's Questions.
Have they changed the rules before?
Yes. After a run of losses in parliament over her Brexit deal, the committee agreed to change them to allow a challenge to Theresa May's leadership six months after she won a confidence vote, but it never happened. Sir Graham is understood to have told her a decision had been made on a rule change, but before he got to the detail, she named the date for her departure.
There is some debate about whether the rules could change for a no confidence vote as soon as July 13 or July 20. Westminster's recess - the summer break - will start on July 21.
Would Boris Johnson survive?
The mood music isn't looking good. But when the Prime Minister's political spokeswoman was asked by journalists if the Prime Minister would fight a no confidence vote, she said yes, and that she believed he would win it.
Who would contest the leadership?
If there is a leadership election the big question is who could replace Boris Johnson. The current favourite, according to Betfair, is Penny Mordaunt. The latest odds from that bookmaker are:
- Penny Mordaunt: 5/1 (was 7/1 on Tuesday)
- Rishi Sunak: 11/2 (was 17/2 on Tuesday)
- Liz Truss: 9/1
- Ben Wallace: 9/1
- Nadhim Zahawi: 10/1
- Jeremy Hunt: 12/1
- Sajid Javid: 12/1
- Tom Tugendhat: 13/1
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