As long as the NFL keeps playing games across the pond, we’ll keep promoting prop bets that start early Sunday morning and keep you engaged until late Monday night. We have a couple of running backs going above their projection, a quarterback who deserves to go under his number, and a running back who only needs one touch to cross the goal line.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
In his last three meetings with the Baltimore Ravens, Henry has rushed 76 times – an average of 25 carries with a low of 18. Mike Vrabel knows the Ravens. Even figuring on the low side, if Henry gets anywhere close to 18 carries – which is the plan – this number is far too low barring nine-in-the-box on every play. The only way he doesn’t hit this number is if the Ravens get ahead by 17 – and that’s unlikely.
4
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson scores a touchdown (-110)
The Washington Commanders were trucked last week at home by the previously winless Chicago Bears. The Commanders have had trouble remotely stopping the run – opponents are averaging 4.8 yards a carry against them. An ideally run-heavy offense like the Falcons is the last thing they want to see. Tyler Allgeier may snipe a goal-line TD, but Robinson is a threat to score as both a runner and receiver, which increases his odds of getting a red-zone touchdown.
3
Las Vegas Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 235.5 passing yards (-115)
In four games this year, Jimmy G has hit this number once – and has been significantly under it in the other three. He’s going up against Bill Belichick, who by design is going to force the Raiders to run the ball because he won’t let Tom Brady‘s caddy that he traded away make him look bad. This number may be 20 yards too high given Garoppolo’s permission to check out of pass plays to run plays. Being a veteran plays to the Under’s advantage.
2
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
McCaffrey has been under this number in three of five games. However, the critical factor in this number is that the Cleveland Browns are required to bring the heat defensively to make up for the loss of Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson. The 49ers don’t take prisoners, so if the Browns have any chance of winning it will require defensive pressure consistently. Brock Purdy will need to check down more than normal, and he tops this number if McCaffrey gets three receptions in space (or maybe one).
1
Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-115)
This is Ekeler’s first game back, but the Chargers are coming off their bye week and everyone is as healthy as they’re going to be the rest of the season. With Justin Herbert dealing with a non-throwing finger injury, the Chargers will try to establish more balance, which lends itself to Ekeler running the ball more. If he gets 13 carries, he needs only one or two Ekeler-ish runs to do a lot of damage to surpassing this number.
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