For this week’s picks, we’re going with five road warriors – players going into hostile environments and four of the five coming out positive. We have two wide receivers and running backs seeing success and a quarterback hitting under his projection, because his team won’t need him to throw as much as his O/U number requires.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
New York Jets WR Davante Adams scores a touchdown (+110)
The conventional wisdom was that Adams’ arrival in New York was going to provide an immediate dividend. That didn’t happen. This time around against a New England Patriots team that has allowed 73 points over the last two games, the Aaron Rodgers-Adams connection will likely be a larger focus and Rodgers. If it doesn’t happen, it won’t be due to a lack of trying.
4
Kansas City Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Chiefs cut a trade to add D-Hop, and this number clearly indicates that he is going to have a supporting role in his first game. Andy Reid doesn’t always work that way. When Kareem Hunt was signed off the street, he was thrown into a lead role in the offense. Hopkins is in game shape, and the Las Vegas Raiders had better be ready for him – even in part-time duty. Reid will make sure he gets incorporated.
3
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Colts have missed Taylor for three games. When Indy’s running game is emphasized, Taylor delivers. In his last three games, he had 56 carries for 301 yards and three TDs. Houston is the only team that held Taylor under this number. But, he had 16 carries. Give him 16 carries again? He pops this number.
2
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love UNDER 262.5 passing yards
The reason Green Bay’s receivers are never must-start is because when the Packers win, they don’t need a ton of passing yards. In the five games he’s played, Love has topped this number only once. That came when Minnesota was blowing Green Bay out at home, and he ended up throwing 54 passes. He may not need 30 to beat Jacksonville.
1
Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Miami Dolphins will try to make the return of Tua Tagovailoa a big-play revival of the toothless offense that followed his injury. The Cardinals are going to look to grind the clock, and Conner will be critical to that plan. It may take 17 carries to top this number, but expect 20 or more if the game isn’t a blowout in favor of the Dolphins.
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