For this week’s picks, we have a pair of quarterbacks hitting under their projected numbers, a pair of dynamic playmakers going over their numbers, and a receiver scoring a touchdown for his third straight game.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown scores a touchdown (+150)
Injuries have limited Brown to just two games, but he topped 115 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in both. Getting a 50% above investment on the return seems hard to pass up, even against a stingy but banged-up New York Giants defense. Philly is 2-0 when Brown plays (and scores). Let’s make it three.
4
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 15.5 rushing yards (-110)
Purdy has topped this number in three of his last four games, but Purdy was contained in the pocket and not allowed to escape pressure in the games against defenses that bring a lot of pressure in the middle when they blitz. The 49ers will count on others to produce rushing yards against Kansas City and keep Purdy in the pocket looking to exploit downfield options by design.
3
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins UNDER 267.5 passing yards (-115)
This is a big number for any quarterback, much less one that is at his best when the offense is balanced – and, in Atlanta, running the ball is done more than most teams if it works. Seattle’s defense has been hit hard with injuries, especially up front, but Cousins has topped this number just once this year. This number is 20 yards too high, despite the ‘Hawks being down two prominent corners.
2
Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-120)
Aggressive defenses bottle up David Montgomery. Aggressive defenses get burned by Gibbs. The Vikings take chances. The best bet here is total yards, because Gibbs will break a couple. You just need one of them to be a run.
1
New York Jets WR Davante Adams OVER 48.5 receiving yards
The Pittsburgh Steelers will make a point of emphasis to keep Adams from scoring, but Aaron Rodgers will make a point of throwing the ball to Adams just prove a point. If the Jets get the ball first, Adams may get most — if not all — of those yards on that drive. School reunions always start strong.
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