For this week’s picks we look at two quarterbacks using their legs – one good, one bad – a bell-cow running back doing his thing the conventional way, a running back excelling as a receiver, and a tight end continuing to expand his role in his offense.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kamara has caught four or more passes in seven of his last eight games and has games at home in which he caught 12 and 13 passes, respectively. Despite a 6-7 record the Saints still control everything they need to do to win the NFC South. In this final four-game run, they need to count on their star players to make plays. For Kamara, that means not only being the lead back in the running game but among the leading receivers as well. If he catches four or five passes, he needs to break only one of them for 15-20 yards to top this number.
4
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray UNDER 32.5 rushing yards (-120)
Since returning from the knee injury that ended his 2022 season, Murray has been running, but most of it comes in the red zone near the goal line. In his last two games, Murray has rushed 10 times for just 22 yards, and the 49ers are sure to have a spy on him to prevent the huge run when he breaks containment. Given his season rushing average, he would need to rush seven times to hit this number, and he has rushed more than seven times just once (and gained just 20 yards in that game).
3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White OVER 75.5 rushing yards (-120)
White has been one of the highest volume running backs in the league. He has rushed 15 or times in five of the last six games and has 20 or more carries in four of those games. In his last three games, he has topped this number in each of them, rushing 60 times for 286 yards. The Green Bay Packers are allowing 142 yards a game on the ground. Given the percentage of the Buccaneers’ running game that is reserved for White, if Tampa Bay gets anywhere close to that number as a team, it will be nearly impossible for White not to have enough yards to pass this total.
2
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen scores a touchdown (+105)
Buffalo has scored 15 rushing touchdowns this season and 10 of those have been scored by Allen. He has rushing touchdown in each of his last two games, six of the last seven, and nine of the last 11 games. What makes this more enticing is who Allen has scored his touchdowns against. The Bills have played against five teams that are currently in the playoffs (Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Kansas City). He has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of those games. With Dallas coming to town, Allen may take it upon himself to close out a drive near the goal line like he has done so often this season against quality opponents.
1
Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Engram has been the most consistent receiver for the Jaguars, leading the team with 84 catches for 701 yards and three touchdowns. But prior to Christian Kirk going down with an injury two weeks ago, Engram was more of a chain-mover than a dominant tight end. In the two games Kirk has missed, Engram has caught 20 passes for 177 yards and scored three touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence has been laser-focused on Engram, and he has done so against two AFC North teams (Cincinnati and Cleveland). The Ravens have a good defense, but Engram creates physical mismatches, and Lawrence is too locked in on him to ignore his impact. If he isn’t constantly bracketed, he should blow past this number.
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