In Week 1 we had a good look at all 32 teams and what their squads look like – both their strengths and their weaknesses. In some instances, what we saw in Week 1 wasn’t representative of what we can expect over the course of the full season – teams like the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
For most teams, what we saw is what we can likely expect – good and bad – going forward, so with more information to go on, we can base decisions on a track record from this season and, in the case of divisional games with a lot of history, a head-to-head track record.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 100.5 rushing yards (-116)
This will be a rule of thumb for me whenever the Colts play a mediocre opponent – if his Over/Under is less than 105 yards, I’m taking the Over if he isn’t banged up coming in. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the definition of mediocrity. Taylor ran for 161 yards last week and, in two games against Jacksonville last season, rushed for 369 yards and two touchdowns.
Matt Ryan will be throwing the ball, but the Colts offense is built around Taylor and nothing is going to change that. He seems hell-bent on rushing for 2,000 yards this season, and I’m cashing in while the number is still manageable (for Taylor’s weekly output standards).
4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady UNDER 270.5 passing yards (-114)
In four regular season games against the New Orleans Saints, Brady has thrown for 214 or fewer yards in three of them. It seems like the Saints have had his number since he came to Tampa Bay.
As the Week 1 win over Dallas showed, if the Bucs are going to continue to be successful, mixing the run and the pass more equally is the way to achieve sustained success. While Brady is clearly capable of eclipsing this mark (he averaged 30 yards more than this last year), it seems just a little too high going up against a solid Saints defense.
Brady is a dart thrower at this stage of his career and what has helped his longevity is getting ridding of the ball in a hurry on short passes and slicing and dicing a defense. To hit this number, he’ll likely need two or three passes of 30 yards or more to pad his stats.
3
New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
I tend to shy away from taking Giants players for prop bets, unless I’m betting the Under on Daniel Jones for passing yards or touchdowns. Barkley came out of the gate strong in Week 1, rushing 18 times for 164 yards and a touchdown against a pretty good Titans defense, and he draws a Carolina Panthers defense that allowed a whopping 217 yards on the ground to Cleveland Browns in Week 1.
What stood out to me about the Carolina Panthers’ woes in Week 1 wasn’t just the yardage permitted but the number of carries (37) they allowed the Browns, including 22 from lead back Nick Chubb.
If Barkley gets any near 20 carries, he should blow by this number.
2
Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
I still believe that the wild passing numbers the Broncos put up in Week 1 were the result of falling behind early to the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson exploiting the known weaknesses of Seattle’s defense. However, it doesn’t mean he’s going to be a 200-yard passer every week.
Jeudy only caught four passes in Week 1 but racked up 102 receiving yards and has the look of being Wilson’s designated deep guy. This number seems awfully low, since the Houston Texans faced another veteran QB on the move in Week 1 (Matt Ryan), and he lit them up for 352 passing yards.
If things go as I suspect, don’t be stunned if this is the last week Jeudy’s Over/Under number is in the 50s.
1
Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-113)
The amount needed to invest is more on the Under (-118), so you get the feeling those setting the lines don’t believe Andrews will get to 63 or more receiving yards. I beg to differ on that because this week’s opponent (Miami Dolphins) dropped to pass on 36 of 59 offensive plays last week and will try to up the tempo the same way Miami did to the New England Patriots defense in Week 1.
Why does that matter? If Miami has any success through the air, it will likely force the Ravens to throw more, and I could easily see Andrews catching a half dozen passes. If that happens, getting to 63 shouldn’t be too difficult – one catch down the seam downfield would seal the deal on that one.
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