This week, we pick five games that have four with significant playoff implications and one that involves two teams that will only get the playoffs by buying tickets. We have a huge favorite covering double digits, a team locking down its first division title in 30 years, two potential Super Bowl matchups, and a “for relatives only” game between two teams hopelessly out of the playoff chase.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Washington Commanders at New York Jets: Take UNDER 37 points (-110)
Both teams have struggled to score points. The Commanders haven’t scored more than 20 points in each of their last four games, and the Jets have scored 13 or fewer in seven of their last eight games. These are epic struggles in the modern NFL. You have the 32nd-ranked offense (Jets) going up against the 32nd defense (Commanders) and have the 18th-ranked offense (Commanders) going up against the seventh-ranked defense (Jets). This stinks of punts-a-plenty and field goals deciding it.
4
Take Buffalo Bills and lay 12.5 points at Los Angeles Chargers (-110)
The Bills were left for dead after a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that sent them to 6-6. They were heading to Kansas City and then were coming home to face the red-hot Dallas Cowboys. The Bills won both of them, but need to keep the foot on the gas to even get into the playoffs, which is far from a given. The Chargers are without Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen and will provide little in the way of counter-punches. Buffalo could win this by 30.
3
Take Detroit Lions and lay 3 points (-110) at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are on their fourth quarterback in the last two months and are trending downward. They have lost three of their four games (by a total of six points) and their only win was 3-0 against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Lions are fresh off a beatdown of the Denver Broncos and are one win away from winning the NFC North title for the first time in 30 years. Detroit closes the season with games against Dallas and a rematch with the Vikings. The Lions need to win this game to take the pressure off. They will.
2
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins: Take OVER 49.5 POINTS (-110
This a big number and requires a lot to make it happen to expect more. That said, this game has too many scenarios where the Over is well within reach. Before be humbled by the Bills last week, the Cowboys had scored 33 or more points in five straight games. The Dolphins have scored 27 or more points in their last four games and nine of 14 games this season. Miami has lost all three of its games against critical opponents (Bills, Chiefs and Eagles). The Cowboys losses are similar (Eagles, 49ers and Bills). If one team gets ahead, the beating won’t stop. The ball is in the air in this one and, whether it’s 34-31 or 38-17, more scenarios say Over.
1
Take San Francisco 49ers and lay 5.5 points (-110) vs. Baltimore Ravens
I hate the idea of giving Lamar Jackson this many points, but you have to look at percentages when looking at this point spread. No 11-3 team should ever be a 5.5-point dog, but the Ravens are on the road against another 11-3 team. This could be the precursor to a Super Bowl rematch. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points six times but just once on the road. The 49ers have played only two games that were viewed as having deep postseason rematch potential – against the Cowboys and Eagles. They beat Dallas 42-10 and beat Philly 42-19. They won’t put up that many against the Ravens but should defend their home turf by more than 5.5 points.
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